Election year finds GOP voter registrations leading Dems on Treasure Coast at new highs

The divide between registered Republicans and Democrats on the Treasure Coast is the widest it has been in nearly three decades, according to a TCPalm analysis of Florida Division of Elections data.

TCPalm assessed voter registration statistics for each November, the most recent data available, and when general elections typically take place, since 1995. That year, the earliest for which archived data are available online, there were about 35,000 more Republicans than Democrats across Martin, St. Lucie and Indian River counties. In 2023, the gap rose to more than 60,000 for the first time.

It is part of a larger trend of growth in the ranks of the Florida Republican Party, which has eclipsed its Democratic rival in registration in recent years.

Across the Treasure Coast

Notably, the Republican advantage has recovered after it was narrowed significantly by a surge in Democratic registrations between 2007 and 2008, coinciding with Barack Obama’s presidential campaign, which energized and registered new voters across Florida and the nation.

In 2008, Republicans gained about 8,500 new registered voters across the Treasure Coast, while Democrats gained more than 18,000. That increase narrowed the gap between the two from nearly 30,000 to less than 20,000.

Republicans would not have a lead of more than 30,000 — where it had been in 2006 before Obama’s successful primary and general election campaigns — again until 2016, when a candidate from their own party was energizing and registering new voters: Donald Trump.

In 2016, Democrats increased their total across the region by about 8,000 voters, compared to more than 15,000 for Republicans. The Republican advantage increased to nearly 32,000.

Since then, it has nearly doubled to more than 60,000, the widest in the nearly three decades of recordkeeping. That spike has been driven primarily by the massive growth across the region, most notably in St. Lucie County.

Between the 2010 and 2020 censuses, according to federal data, the Treasure Coast's population increased by more than 85,000. And it’s likely grown by more than 40,000 since then, according to estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Both major parties have seen their numbers increase as the area has grown, but Republicans — who already held a lead — have far outpaced their counterparts. Democrats have increased registrations by 59,761 since 1995, while Republicans have grown their numbers by 85,322.

Those who register with no party affiliation have increased even more significantly, by 99,977. In 1995 there were just more than 20,000 independent voters — who cannot vote in partisan primaries — and there now are more than 120,000. Minor-party voters had a net gain of more than 6,500 in that timeframe.

Voter registration can lag behind election results

The large number of independent voters is one of many reasons why party registration is far from a perfect predictor of how regions will vote. In both 2016 and 2020, there were more registered Democrats than Republicans statewide, but Trump won the state both years.

Registration can tend to lag behind changes in voter behavior. Despite Republicans winning the last two presidential and seven gubernatorial elections in Florida, the state party only first surpassed Democrats in registered voters in 2021, a lead it has only expanded since.

Some states that tend to vote for Republican presidential candidates by even wider margins than Florida, such as Louisiana, still have more Democrats registered than Republicans, based on those states’ most recent data.

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St. Lucie County

St. Lucie County once had a long history as a blue island sandwiched between reliably red Martin and Indian River counties.

Since 1996, St. Lucie voted for Bill Clinton, Al Gore, John Kerry and Obama, while Martin and Indian River went for Bob Dole, George W. Bush, John McCain and Mitt Romney.

Things changed in 2016, though, when St. Lucie voted for a Republican for the first time since George H.W. Bush. Trump won it in both 2016 and 2020.

Change also has come in registrations.

A slim Democratic advantage of just 990 in 1995 ballooned to more than 18,500 in 2008, a more than two-fold increase from 2007. Democrats’ lead continued to grow until 2015, when it dropped for the first time since 2000. From there, it has only narrowed further.

At the height of their advantage in 2014, St. Lucie Democrats had a registration lead of more than 20,000. registered voters. As of 2023, that lead was down to 2,429, the smallest since 1995.

As of the end of November there were 87,911 registered Democrats, 85,482 Republicans, 67,319 with no party and 6,277 minor-party voters in St. Lucie.

Martin County

Voters registering as no-party outnumbered Democrats for the first-time in 2022 in Martin County, where Republicans have long been dominant.

Though there had been close years before — such as in 2017, when Democratic registrations stayed ahead of no-party registrations by just 603 — 2022 was the first year that saw Democrats surpassed, by 901 registered voters. The gap has tightened, but Democrats still were behind independents by 317, based on most recent data.

Though Democrats’ numbers have increased by about 5,500 since 1995, voters with no party have gone up by more than 20,000 over that span.

Both groups are far outnumbered by Republicans. Martin County had nearly 34,000 more Republicans registered than Democrats or independents. Republican numbers have grown by about 17,600 since 1995.

As of the end of November there were 59,803 registered Republicans, 26,177 with no party, 25,860 Democrats and 3,245 minor-party voters in Martin.

Indian River County

Republicans have consistently led the registration race in Indian River County, but their lead has grown to a new high.

In 1995, there were nearly 15,000 more Republicans on the books than Democrats. The gap was never that close again. In 2023, it was the highest ever, at more than 29,000. As in Martin, there were more than twice as many registered Republicans as Democrats or independents in Indian River.

Like what happened in Martin, Democratic registrations are at risk of falling behind no-party totals in Indian River. After having more than 14,000 more Democrats than the no-party total in 1995, that gap shrunk down to about one-tenth of that — 1,408.

As of the end of November there were 57,382 registered Republicans, 28,021 Democrats, 26,613 with no party and 3,237 minor-party voters in Indian River.

Wicker Perlis is TCPalm’s Watchdog Reporter for St. Lucie County. You can reach him at wicker.perlis@tcpalm.com and 504-331-0516.

This article originally appeared on Treasure Coast Newspapers: Republicans grow in Martin, Indian River, St. Lucie Democrats hang on