Ed DeRosa's betting strategy for 502'sDay at Churchill Downs: Horses to put your money on

While Downs After Dark is “Opening Night” and a week before the Kentucky Derby, 502’sDay feels more like actual Kentucky Derby Week. Enjoy your day, Louisville, and if you’re at Churchill Downs, make sure you pay attention to the cool race names referencing area landmarks and legends.

Race 1 (The Village 8 Theaters): 1-2-6

After extolling the virtues of “speed in the opener” for Opening Night’s picks, we’ll look to buck that conventional wisdom here with No. 1 Dreamster, who has been facing better and gets class and distance relief here with leading rider Tyler Gaffalione getting the call.

Race 2 (The Hasenour’s) picks: 2-6-5

No. 2 Jump Into the Fire will give us the speed we crave, as this front-runner gets back out to two turns in his second start off the layoff. He loves this track and distance and looks ready to fire here.

Race 3 (The Bacon’s Department): 1-2-4

Trainer Rob Atras wins a lot of races but not necessarily with his newest pupils. No. 1 Condiment Girl joined his barn recently and looks the part against these given the win over this track in her past performances, and the rail draw is a noted departure from recent outside posts.

Race 4 (The Burger Queen) picks: 2-5-6

No. 2 Batten Down should want every bit of this 1 ¼ maiden event given he is by Tapit out of the multiple Grade 1-winning First Defense mare Close Hatches. Plus, like that he’s shown some speed in his losses, as that is a powerful weapon at this Derby trip.

Race 5 (The Red Barn) picks: 3-7-6

Back on the turf for this allowance race, and it’s tough to call a horse a “best bet” without seeing the board, but given we have a full field here I think we’ll get the right price on No. 3 Fredo, who should be able to lead this group from flag fall to that’s all (i.e. gate to wire).

Race 6 (The Lentini’s Ristorante) picks: 9-4-6

Looking through my notes, I realized I picked trainer Grant Forster on this day last year, so why not run it back for one of the great denizens of the 502? His No. 9 Dreaming Always has her lone win at this distance. Now, this is a one-turn event, but she should have some pace to chase. No. 4 Collect a Lil could be a part of that pace. Her only start on dirt was also her lone win.

Race 7 (The ear X-Tacy) picks: 3-4-1

Unlike Atras, trainer Jesus Esquivel does excel with his new-to-the-barn runners, sporting a 28% strike rate and +2% ROI with those horses. No. 3 Transparency joins the fray, and Esquivel is his fourth trainer in as many starts. That’s not typically a great sign, but I can forgive it given this one is in form and is dropping in class.

Race 8 (The Jim Porter’s Good Times Emporium) picks: 5-4-6

Sprinting on the turf here for the 502’sDay feature, and No. 5 Howboudemapples seems to relish this type of trip, and the middle post should give jockey Irad Ortiz some options when deciding how close to get to his brother Jose aboard No. 4 Quick Munny, who has made the lead in each of his last four starts.

Race 9 (The Jim Porter’s Good Times Emporium) picks: 1-13-7

No. 1 Global Stage looks like one of the most likely winners on the day, dropping in class with plenty of speed to control this race. Primary danger would be No. 13 Readier if drawn in going turf to dirt.

This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: 502'sDay 2024 betting strategy, horses to bet on and expert tips