Early February in Wichita is full of sun, mild temperatures. Is that weather here to stay?

Last week brought above-normal temperatures to south-central Kansas, but the springlike weather most likely won’t be here to stay.

National Weather Service forecaster Robb Lawson said Wichita residents should expect colder weather to return before spring officially arrives Tuesday, March 19.

“The good news is at least for another week or so we’re going to have warm weather,” Lawson said in a Friday interview, “but we can definitely expect some more cold shots here.”

The high temperatures for February in Wichita are usually in the mid-40s Fahrenheit.

“The last few days we’ve been in the 60s, so we’re doing, you know, 10 to 15 degrees above normal for high temperatures here in the last several days, so we’re definitely above normal,” Lawson said.

The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center monthly outlook reports the Wichita area will likely see above-normal temperatures for the month of February. But Lawson cautioned just because the days have been warmer recently doesn’t mean you should rule out some below-normal temperatures this month.

“Things kind of go in cycles,” Lawson said. “We’re likely still going to have numerous days ... below normal for parts of February and March, too.”

Wichita residents also shouldn’t rule out the chance of another snowfall.

“We’ve had snow on Easter before,” Lawson noted. “We can still get snow March into April.”

The ongoing El Niño weather pattern could continue to favor a winter of above-normal snowfall, one forecaster told The Eagle in October. That could be the case for Wichita, which is experiencing the snowiest season for the area since the winter of 2007-08.

The season-to-date snowfall as of Jan. 31 is 14.3 inches, according to a NWS social media post. In fact, January broke several Wichita weather records, with the coldest high temperature Jan. 14 and 15 and most precipitation Jan. 8.

El Niño happens when warm water is pushed east towards the west coast of the Americas, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, causing the pacific jest stream to move south due to the warmer waters. This weather pattern can lead to drier and warmer weather in the Northern U.S. and Canada.

The Wichita area will most likely start seeing longer periods of warmer weather starting next month, Lawson said.

“Once we get into March, your average high temperature starts getting into the 50s,” he said. “We’ll start seeing more prolonged periods of 60-degree weather, you know, middle of March, but you can still get cold shots.”

What is the latest forecast for Wichita?

This week looks like it might be a good one to spend outdoors. Here’s a quick look at the latest weather forecast from the NWS.

• Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a high near 54 degrees, and wind gusts could reach up to 21 miles per hour. The low is around 44.

• Wednesday: High around 58, mostly cloudy, and wind gusts could reach 38 mph. There’s a 20% chance of precipitation at night with a low near 48.

• Thursday: Sunny with a high around 64 and low near 37.

• Friday: Sunny with a high around 59 and low near 36.

• Saturday: Partly sunny during the day with a high near 54. There’s a 20% chance of rain later in the day with a low around 28.