The dynamics of the brewing tug-of-war with David McCormick over Bob Casey's Senate seat
Pennsylvania, a purple state that often acts as an election bellwether, once again stands on the front lines of a presidential contest.
And it's also likely to be the battleground for a nationally significant Senate race, with longtime Democratic U.S. Sen. Bob Casey seeking to defend his seat from a Republican challenger.
Casey has coasted to victory in previous re-election contests, which he’s won by nine percentage points or more, but he predicted during his January campaign kickoff that he faces a "long, tough race" this time around, the Philadelphia Inquirer reported.
Political experts agree that the incumbent will likely fae his strongest competition yet in David McCormick, the former hedge fund CEO poised to capture the GOP nomination and receive an outpouring of support from Republicans fighting for a Senate majority.
McCormick, who narrowly lost a 2022 Senate primary to celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz, enters the contest with experience campaigning across the commonwealth, deep pockets and powerful allies — and he has already clinched the backing of the Keystone State’s party establishment.
“Pennsylvania is pretty important for Senate control,” said Berwood Yost, who directs the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster. “So Democrats are going to spend a lot of money to keep the seat and the Republicans are going to spend a lot to take it away.”
The race has drawn millions in donations so far, with Casey raising roughly $3.7 million from October through December and McCormick bringing in $5.5 million over roughly the same time period. A super PAC in support of the Republican candidate collected $18 million in the last four months of 2023, attracting donations from billionaires the likes of hedge fund manager Ken Griffin and businessman Jeffrey Yass, the Inquirer reported.
Experts say that infusion of cash will help the Senate candidates rise above the noise to get their messages to voters, even as politicians up and down the ballot also jockey for attention.
In a busy election year, here are a few more reasons that voters should pay careful attention to the Senate contest.
Control of the U.S. Senate is at stake
Democrats hold a slim advantage in the Senate, generally winning chamber votes with help from three independents who tend to side with them.
But Republicans appear poised to pick up a seat with the retirement of U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin, a Democrat from West Virginia, and they could take control of the chamber if they win a couple more key races.
A voting majority in the Senate is critical to both parties: Not only does the upper chamber handle legislation, but it also votes on presidential cabinet appointments and Supreme Court nominations.
In any case, it’s difficult to imagine Democrats retaining an upper hand in the Senate if they were to lose in Pennsylvania, said Christopher Borick, a professor of political science at Muhlenberg College in Allentown.
“It’s a seat that they have optimism about but also some concern,” he said. “And if it was to fall, it would be an incredible blow to their chances of holding the Senate.”
McCormick appears to be Casey’s most formidable opponent so far
Casey first won a Senate seat in 2006 after trouncing his Republican rival, Rick Santorum, who lost by 17 percentage points. The Democrat sailed to re-election in 2012 and 2018.
This race is likely to be the Casey's toughest fight yet, according to Borick.
McCormick’s resume as a military veteran and successful businessman give him a boost, experts say, and he also benefits from vast personal wealth and donor networks that could help him finance a vigorous attack on the incumbent.
In addition, McCormick has already solidified his support among the Pennsylvania party establishment, with the GOP uncharacteristically issuing him an endorsement months in advance of the primary.
Vince Galko, a Republican political strategist in Pennsylvania, said Keystone State Republicans were thrilled with the candidacy of McCormick, who they believe can attract moderate voters who have felt alienated by the party in recent years.
"McCormick is going to be able to appeal to the independents and suburban voters that Republicans have been losing for the last decade-plus," Galko said. "Perhaps even get some of those folks to come back and vote for Trump, as well."
More: John Fetterman wins Pa. Senate race, flipping key seat for Democrats
Still, Casey, who has a prominent family name and is the longest-serving Democratic senator in Pennsylvania history, will not be easy to beat, Borick said, and polling numbers so far bear that out. A recent poll by Franklin & Marshall College had Casey leading McCormick by 47% to 35% in a head-to-head matchup.
However, Yost said that gap is likely to narrow moving into the general election season, especially if McCormick manages to raise his name recognition in the commonwealth.
“If I’m making a bet right now, I'd say (the race) is going to get close and be very well contested,” Yost said. “But that assumes that Mr. McCormick is able to really improve his profile in a positive way among Pennsylvania voters.”
Joe Corrigan, a Pennsylvania-based Democratic political consultant, said he’s not losing sleep over Casey's challenger.
Though McCormick has enjoyed relatively smooth sailing this primary season, meaning he hasn’t had to court hard-right voters, Corrigan predicted the Republican’s positions during the fierce 2022 GOP battle will come back to haunt him.
Among other things, McCormick proclaimed in a debate two years ago that he believes in banning abortion unless the procedure is needed to save the life of the mother. His campaign has since said he also supports exceptions in cases of rape or incest.
“If he hadn’t had to run in the primary two years ago, he could have probably just flown under the radar as a hedge fund manager from Connecticut who served in the military and sounded like a typical Wall Street guy,” Corrigan said. “But because he had to go head-to-head in a primary last time, he exposed himself as just as extreme as Mitch McConnell and Ted Cruz and the like.”
The race is intertwined with the presidential contest
The dynamics of the presidential election will reverberate through all of the races that appear down ballot, including the Pennsylvania Senate race, according to political experts.
President Joe Biden’s relatively low approval numbers could dampen turnout and enthusiasm for the Democratic ticket in general — potentially affecting Casey’s performance, Borick said. And hewing too closely to Donald Trump, the likely GOP nominee, could hurt McCormick in Pennsylvania, which rejected the former president in 2020 and has generally shunned statewide candidates who wave the MAGA banner, he added.
On the Democratic side, the Senate and presidential candidates are linked in voters’ minds for some of their political and biographical similarities. Biden and Casey each proudly identify as Scranton natives and project a similar reassuring presence to a certain segment of the Pennsylvania electorate, Corrigan said.
“There’s something comforting to Pennsylvanians about older white dudes from Scranton,” he said. “Bob Casey is not a firebrand, and neither is Joe Biden.”
But Republicans are hoping this affiliation damages Casey, with McCormick’s campaign wasting no time blasting the senator as a “rubber stamp” for the president on issues like immigration and the economy.
"Their policies have been pretty much identical," Galko said.
On the other hand, McCormick’s relationship with Trump has appeared more volatile. The former president blasted McCormick as a “liberal Wall Street Republican” in the 2022 primary and backed Oz in the race, instead.
Earlier this year, McCormick told reporters he didn't plan to endorse anyone in the GOP presidential primary, although he backtracked and issued his support for Trump following the former president’s commanding Super Tuesday performance.
More: Who's running for office? A Pennsylvanian's preview of the 2024 primary ballot.
And it’s still to be seen how closely the candidates will align as they campaign for Pennsylvania votes this year.
McCormick’s resume doing business abroad and running a company would’ve once made him an ideal Republican candidate, Yost said, but his hedge fund past and business relationships in China could actually alienate him from the GOP voters that Trump energizes.
“I’m not sure what he’s going to do about that,” Yost said.
This article originally appeared on Beaver County Times: PA Sen. Casey gears up to defend seat from Republican David McCormick
