Can Donald Trump help Steve Garvey beat Adam Schiff in California’s US Senate race?

Suddenly Steve Garvey, absent from California’s political radar until last fall, is the big Republican hope to win a U.S. Senate seat—but he’s an undefined, untested unknown.

At the moment, he’s given little chance to win in a state where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly 2 to 1 and polls show Democrat Adam Schiff with a wide lead for the seat.

“This is not a viable pickup for Republicans. Our rating remains solid Democratic,” said Jessica Taylor, Senate analyst for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, which studies political races.

Garvey has exceeded expectations so far. He’s ahead of Schiff in the primary election race to fill the partial term of the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein, and in a virtual tie for the full six-year term.

As the top two finishers in the primary, Garvey and Schiff will face each other in November. Garvey’s campaign did not return a request for comment.

But first, there are some serious questions Garvey will try to answer in the months ahead:

Can he raise enough money to compete?

Schiff has shown he can raise lots of money. He and his supporters have spent millions on advertising, a major reason the Senate race is the most expensive in California history.

Garvey began his campaign in October, but has raised only $2.1 million as of mid-February. Schiff had raised $31.4 million.

It’s unclear whether Garvey will get much help from national Republicans. “California just is not winnable for a Republican in a federal race these days. Republicans have a bunch of other more attractive targets across the country,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan political analysis group.

To control the Senate, Republicans need a net gain of one seat if Trump is elected president and two seats if Biden wins. The GOP candidate is the favorite to win the West Virginia seat now held by Sen. Joe Manchin, a Democrat. And the analysts see Republicans as having a good shot at picking up Democratic-held seats in Ohio, Arizona and Montana, where Trump is strong.

Sen. Steve Daines, R-Montana, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, did not mention fundraising in a statement Wednesday congratulating Garvey. He said he was “hopeful he will knock it out of the park in November.”

Can Garvey win independent voters?

Network exit polls Tuesday showed that of the state’s 37% of California voters who didn’t identify as Republican or Democrat, Garvey did well.

He won 41% of those voters to Schiff’s 22%. But Rep. Katie Porter, D-Irvine, got 16%, and Rep. Barbara Lee, D-Oakland, won 10% of those voters.

“They’re not likely to swing to Garvey,” said Christian Groce, associate director of the USC Schwarzenegger Institute.

Garvey has appealed to voters as a unifier, saying Tuesday that when he played baseball he didn’t play for Democrats, Republicans or independents, but for fans.

But when the USC-Dornsife poll in January asked voters for their second choices, two-thirds of Porter supporters cited Schiff, while about half of Lee backers listed Schiff as their second pick.

Can Garvey endure a tough campaign?

“The debates showed that he has not yet mastered the issues,” said John Pitney, professor of government at Claremont McKenna College and a former top Republican National Committee staff member.

Garvey has done little campaigning, and during the debates with Schiff, Porter and Lee the Republican rarely got specific about issues.

He’s also up against a seasoned, savvy campaigner in Schiff, a congressman since 2001. Ads by Schiff and his supporters promoting Garvey as the race’s true conservative were widely credited with boosting the Republican among GOP voters.

The congressman showed Tuesday that he can appeal to a wide range of voters. Exit polls found he won among voters who were satisfied and those dissatisfied with the direction of the country. He won among those who approved of the job Gov. Gavin Newsom is doing and those who somewhat disapproved.

“One should never say never. Perhaps Republican opposition researchers can prove that Schiff has a secret life as a cat burglar,” said Pitney. “But without weird developments, Schiff is on track for a comfortable victory in November.”

Will Trump matter in the Senate election?

Trump remains deeply unpopular in California, and Schiff has gained stature with anti-Trumpers for his leadership role in the House impeachments of the former president.

Garvey says he voted twice for Trump, who twice lost general elections in California by huge margins, and will not say how he’ll vote this time.

Tuesday’s exit polls found Trump remains unpopular in California, where 11% said they’re part of his Make America Great Again movement and 66% said they disapproved of Trump when he was president.

Turnout among Democrats could also go higher in the general election. “There was a semi-engaged presidential race on the Republican side and not the Democratic side,” said the Cook Report’s Taylor, as Trump still had a credible opponent in former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley. She suspended her campaign Wednesday.

Will Garvey’s baseball career help him?

Garvey often reminds voters of his baseball career.

He was an all-star first baseman who was instrumental in getting his Los Angeles Dodgers to four National League championships and one World Series win. He then went to the San Diego Padres and helped them reach the World Series in 1984.

On primary night, Garvey’s speech to supporters was full of baseball allusions. The primary is the first game of a doubleheader, he said. Winning the primary felt like hitting a home run to win a game. Critics say “we’re going to strike out.”

The record of athletes-turned-politicians is mixed. Former pro football players Reps. Burgess Owens, R-Utah, and Colin Allred, D-Texas, service in Congress. Former Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville won a U.S. Senate seat from Alabama in 2020, his first run for office. Two years later, famed University of Georgia and National Football League running back Herschel Walker lost a Georgia Senate bid.

Garvey last played major league baseball in 1987, which means it’s doubtful anyone in their mid-40s or younger remembers him playing. An estimated one-fourth of California voters Tuesday were under 45.

“Garvey’s baseball roots don’t help him. In our survey in January, we found that party affiliation heavily trumps baseball team preference,” said USC’s Grose.