Don’t put the sweaters away yet. NC weather is about to turn cold again. Here’s why

Don’t put your sweaters away quite yet.

After an unseasonably warm February in the Triangle — the third-warmest on record in Raleigh — the Climate Prediction Center at the National Weather Service (NWS) is predicting below-normal temperatures for much of mid-March.

For most of this week, that will likely mean local temperatures that are just one or two degrees below normal. But toward the end of the week, the local NWS office in Raleigh is forecasting temperatures closer to 10 or 15 degrees below normal, meteorologist James Danco told The News & Observer Monday morning.

What’s driving the cold shift? How long can we expect these temperatures to stick around?

We asked Danco those questions and more. Here’s what to know about the March forecast in the Triangle.

What’s causing below-normal March temperatures in the Triangle?

A cold front will begin to move through the Triangle area on Tuesday, Danco said, which will be followed by “northerly flow and a really strong high pressure system over southern Canada.”

By Friday, “cold air damming with continued east, northeast flow at the surface” will bring temperatures about 10 to 15 degrees below normal to central North Carolina, Danco said. That pattern is also predicted to bring rain to the area Friday.

These patterns are different than what we saw throughout much of February, when “we had a ridge of high pressure over the southeastern U.S.,” Danco said.

“That really kept the storm track well to our north and west, really cutting up into the Great Lakes region, and so that left us on the warm side of a lot of systems. And so that’s why we were getting mainly rain, if anything, and it really kept all of the cold bottled up in the western and central part of the country,” Danco said..

“And now, we’re kind of seeing a shift to more troughing in the east, and so that is expected to give us a colder period.”

Timeline of cold March weather in the Triangle

▪ After a relatively warm start to the week, the anticipated cold front will bring cooler temperatures to the Triangle beginning on Wednesday and Thursday — though, at those points, we can likely expect temperatures that are “right at, or maybe just a couple of degrees below normal,” Danco said.

As of Monday morning, the NWS in Raleigh was predicting highs in the upper-50s to low-60s, and lows in the upper-30s to low-40s, on those days.

▪ By Friday, when temperatures are expected to be 10 to 15 degrees below normal, you can expect a high temperature around 48 degrees, along with a 70% chance of rain, according to the NWS forecast on Monday morning.

▪ Temperatures will swing back up by the weekend, Danco said, though they’ll still likely be slightly below normal.

How long will cold March weather in the Triangle last?

Beyond the predictions and forecasts from the Raleigh NWS office, we can look to the NWS’ Climate Prediction Center (CPC) for a longer-term picture of the temperatures March may bring.

The CPC does not predict temperatures, but instead analyzes the probability and chances that above- or below-normal temperatures will occur in a given timeframe, NWS Raleigh said on Twitter.

In its eight to 14 day temperature outlook issued Sunday, the CPC predicted a roughly 50 to 60% chance of below-normal temperatures for North Carolina and much of the Southeast through at least March 19.

Danco said the normal high temperatures through that time period in the Triangle are in the low- to mid-60s, with lows around 40 degrees — but with the CPC’s predictions, we could be in for weather colder than that, maybe even with some “frost and freeze possibilities.”

How long will the below-normal trend last? “Widespread below normal temperatures are favored through the end of March,” a March 3 message from the CPC said.

Will it snow this March in the Triangle?

Though a March snow isn’t unheard of in North Carolina, we’re most likely not going to see any this year.

While we’re in for below-normal temperatures this month, “I still wouldn’t count on any snow, just because we’re getting so late in the season,” Danco said.

Keep up with National Weather Service forecast

Stay up-to-date with the latest forecasts from the National Weather Service in Raleigh at weather.gov/rah.

Longer-term predictions are available from the NWS Climate Prediction Center at cpc.ncep.noaa.gov.