Dolphins return from bye week still leading AFC East. Breaking down remaining schedule

Daniel Oyefusi
David Santiago/dsantiago@miamiherald.com

The Dolphins are returning from the bye week in the same position that they entered the bye week: atop the AFC East.

After Week 10, Miami (7-3) had sole possession of first place in the division. Although the Buffalo Bills defeated the Cleveland Browns to improve their record to 7-3, too, the Dolphins hold the head-to-head tiebreaker advantage because of their Week 3 victory. The New England Patriots’ win over the Jets dropped New York to 6-4, ensuring the Dolphins returned from their bye week still leading the AFC East.

Everything is in play for the Dolphins as they transition into the second half of their schedule — a playoff appearance, the division crown and even the AFC’s No. 1 seed, which comes with a first-round bye in the postseason.

And with an offense — led by a quarterback in Tua Tagovailoa who is in the middle of the MVP race — playing as efficiently as any unit in the last month, plus a defense that has made timely stops in key moments, Miami is one of a few teams that can be considered contenders in the NFL.

“Contrary to popular belief, you can’t really control ultimate outcomes,” Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel said Nov. 14. “I’m not worried about that. I’ve learned a life lesson in my experience, that you get out exactly what you put in. You’ll make 2022 memorable if you and a collection of other individuals decide to invest as much as they’ve ever invested in their craft because in that experience, there’s highs, lows, there’s relationships. But ultimately, I know this for a fact, you get the most out of whatever you got.”

AFC East standings

  1. Miami Dolphins (7-3, 2-1 division)

  2. Buffalo Bills (7-3, 0-2)

  3. New England Patriots (6-4, 2-1 division)

  4. New York Jets (6-4, 2-2 division)

FiveThirtyEight’s projections give the Dolphins a 91 percent chance to reach the playoffs, which would be the franchise’s first postseason appearance since the 2016 season. It also gives Miami a 36 percent chance of winning the division — below the Bills’ 52 percent odds — a 7 percent chance to get the No. 1 seed and a 4 percent chance to win the Super Bowl.

AFC standings

  1. Kansas City Chiefs (8-2)

  2. Miami Dolphins (7-3)

  3. Tennessee Titans (7-3)

  4. Baltimore Ravens (7-3)

  5. Buffalo Bills (7-3)

  6. New England Patriots (6-4)

  7. Cincinnati Bengals (6-4)

  8. New York Jets (6-4)

  9. Los Angeles Chargers (5-5)

  10. Indianapolis Colts (4-6)

  11. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-7)

  12. Las Vegas Raiders (3-7)

  13. Cleveland Browns (3-7)

  14. Denver Broncos (3-7)

  15. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-7)

  16. Houston Texans (1-8-1)

Here is a breakdown of the Dolphins’ remaining schedule:

Week 12: vs. Houston Texans (Nov. 27, 1 p.m.)

▪ Skinny: The Dolphins will host the Texans for the second consecutive season. Last year, Miami defeated Houston, 17-9, the first of seven consecutive victories as the Dolphins turned around a 1-7 start. FiveThirtyEight gives the Dolphins a 90 percent chance to defeat the Texans.

Week 13: at San Francisco 49ers (Dec. 4, 4:05 p.m.)

▪ Skinny: McDaniel — and several other 49ers on Miami’s squad — make their return to San Francisco in Miami’s first game against the 49ers since 2020. FiveThirtyEight gives the Dolphins a 43 percent chance to defeat the 49ers.

Week 14: at Los Angeles Chargers (Dec. 11, 4:05 p.m.)

▪ Skinny: The inter-conference game marks the second head-to-head matchup between Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert, the No. 5 and No. 6 overall picks in the 2020 NFL Draft, respectively. FiveThirtyEight gives the Dolphins a 58 percent chance to defeat the Chargers.

Week 15: at Buffalo Bills (Date TBD, Time TBD)

▪ Skinny: The high-stakes matchup could ultimately decide who wins the AFC East — and more. The game is one of five in Week 15 that have yet to be scheduled; three will be placed in a triple-header Saturday slot. Miami won the first meeting between the two teams, a 21-19 home victory in Week 3. FiveThirtyEight gives the Dolphins a 33 percent chance to defeat the Bills.

Week 16: vs. Green Bay Packers (Dec. 25, 1 p.m.)

▪ Skinny: The Dolphins will host the Packers for their fourth game on Christmas Day in franchise history and the first since 2006, a 13-10 win over the Jets. FiveThirtyEight gives the Dolphins a 73 percent chance to defeat the Packers.

Week 17: at New England Patriots (Jan. 1, 1 p.m.)

▪ Skinny: The Dolphins won the first matchup between the two teams, a 20-7 victory in Week 1. FiveThirtyEight gives the Dolphins a 51 percent chance to defeat the Patriots.

Week 18: vs. New York Jets (Jan. 8, Time TBD)

▪ Skinny: The Dolphins lost the first matchup between the two teams, a 40-17 road defeat in Week 5. However, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa did not play because of a concussion and left tackle Terron Armstead exited the game after aggravating a toe injury on the second drive of the game. FiveThirtyEight gives the Dolphins a 73 percent chance to defeat the Jets.

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