What does Muth's Preakness defection mean for Mystik Dan, rest of field? Trainers weigh in
Upon hearing the news morning-line favorite Muth had been scratched from Saturday’s Preakness Stakes because of a fever, trainer Kenny McPeek knew what it meant for his Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan.
“Oh, my goodness,” McPeek responded. “I guess it puts added pressure on us, but he’s ready.”
Muth’s scratch provided the buzz Wednesday at Pimlico Race Course, which will host the 149th running of the $2 million Preakness at 7:01 p.m. Saturday.
Muth is 4-2-0 in six career starts for trainer Bob Baffert and was set to enter the Preakness as the 8-5 favorite after an impressive victory March 30 in the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park.
Muth arrived at Pimlico at 9:30 p.m. Tuesday after an 18-hour trip that started with a FedEx flight from Los Angeles to Newark, New Jersey. He was then vanned from Newark to Baltimore.
Jimmy Barnes, Baffert’s assistant trainer, discovered early Wednesday morning that Muth had a 103-degree temperature.
Later Wednesday morning, Pimlico officials announced Muth had been scratched from the Preakness.
“It’s a long trip, and I always worry about them getting sick,” said Baffert, who had not yet arrived in Baltimore from Southern California. “I have been so lucky; it just caught up to me. It was bad luck, bad timing. It’s disappointing because we were really looking forward to it. The timing is horrible, but the horse will be fine.”
McPeek expressed sympathy toward Baffert’s situation.
“It’s a fragile game,” McPeek said. “It can happen to any of them.”
Mystik Dan was the 5-2 second choice in the morning line and figures to be the post-time favorite for the Preakness with Muth out of the running.
But what Muth’s absence means for Mystik Dan’s hopes for the Triple Crown is debatable.
Obviously, the scratch of Muth means there’s one less contender for Mystik Dan to beat. Mystik Dan finished third in the Arkansas Derby, 6 ¼ lengths behind Muth.
But don’t forget about Baffert’s other horse in the race — Santa Anita Derby runner-up Imagination.
“We still have Imagination, and we aren’t giving up on him,” Baffert said. “He is improving. We will find out when the gates open how he is doing.”
With Muth out of the race, Imagination looks to be the lone early speed and could be tough to catch if he gets comfortable early.
“It takes a lot of speed out of the race,” said Jeff Engler, trainer of long shot Mugatu. “Imagination still has speed, but somebody’s got to go with him.”
But who could that be?
Just Steel chased Track Phantom for the early lead in the Kentucky Derby before fading to 17th place, so it’s unlikely trainer D. Wayne Lukas will want to make that same mistake again.
Mystik Dan also possesses some early speed but likely wouldn’t benefit from an early duel with Imagination.
The other wild card is the weather, as there’s rain in Saturday’s forecast in Baltimore. Mystik Dan posted the highest Beyer Speed Rating of his career — 101 — while winning the Grade 3 Southwest on Feb. 3 over a muddy track at Oaklawn Park.
“I’m doing a rain dance all this week,” Mystik Dan exercise rider Robby Albarado said. “We know he gets over (a muddy track) well. … He feels good on all tracks, but there’s something about (a muddy track) that he just gets over it easy.
“Going way back — and I’m not making a comparison — but Curlin was like that. On a muddy track, Curlin would just maul them. He got over it like glass, like an ice skater. (Mystik Dan) is similar in getting over it the same type of way. It’s definitely not a disadvantage for him.”
Catching Freedom, fourth in the Kentucky Derby, now joins Imagination as the co-second choice in the Preakness morning line at 6-1 odds.
Asked about Muth’s defection, Catching Freedom trainer Brad Cox said, “I don’t know that it helps us.”
“As soon as I heard about Muth, two people told me, ‘That’s why you run,’” Cox said. “Listen, our horse still has to show up and run. The main thing is the horse did appear to ship over there in great shape, and he’s had two good mornings over there so far. We’re looking forward to the race on Saturday.”
Jason Frakes: (502) 582-4046; jfrakes@courier-journal.com. Follow on X @KentuckyDerbyCJ.
Preakness Stakes 2024
Post time: 7:01 p.m. Saturday at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore. Purse: $2 million. Grade: 1. Distance: 1 3/16 miles. TV: NBC. Jockey weight: 126 pounds.
Post position, horse, trainer, jockey, morning-line odds
1. Mugatu, Jeff Engler, Joe Bravo, 20-1
2. Uncle Heavy, Butch Reid Jr., Irad Ortiz Jr., 20-1
3. Catching Freedom, Brad Cox, Flavien Prat, 6-1
4. Muth, Bob Baffert, Juan Hernandez, SCRATCHED
5. Mystik Dan, Kenny McPeek, Brian Hernandez Jr., 5-2
6. Seize the Grey, D. Wayne Lukas, Jaime Torres, 15-1
7. Just Steel, D. Wayne Lukas, Joel Rosario, 15-1
8. Tuscan Gold, Chad Brown, Tyler Gaffalione, 8-1
9. Imagination, Bob Baffert, Frankie Dettori, 6-1
Jason Frakes: 502-582-4046; jfrakes@courier-journal.com; Twitter: @KentuckyDerbyCJ.
This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: What Muth Preakness scratch could mean for Mystik Dan and Triple Crown
