How does Kelly Craft’s campaign change the 2023 governor’s race? What you need to know.

The already-crowded field of candidates for the GOP nomination for Kentucky governor in the 2023 election grew in a notable way on Wednesday.

Kelly Craft, former ambassador to the United Nations under former president Donald Trump, launched her campaign with an ad touting her roots as a farm girl from small town Kentucky and her adherence to basic conservative principles.

That came as little surprise to many, Northern Kentucky University political science professor Ryan Salzman said, because Craft’s name has been floated as a potential candidate for the post for more than a year.

And a key ally just confirmed their support for her campaign. Kentucky’s First Congressional District Representative James Comer, a well-known figure in Kentucky politics especially in the Southern and Western parts of the state, announced that he will back Craft.

Because of the looming specter of a Craft campaign, some details had already been hinted at: the Comer endorsement as well as a potential pairing of Sen. Max Wise, R-Campbellsville, as her running mate for lieutenant governor.

As of Wednesday, the nascent Craft campaign had no comment to offer on Wise, nor did Wise respond to requests for comment.

But Craft’s competitors and political observers across the state had plenty to say.

For one, some noted that it was hard to discern what Craft’s policy agenda would look like. Al Cross, longtime state politics observer and director of the Institute for Rural Journalism and Community Issues at the University of Kentucky, said that while it’s par for the course for candidates to be short on policy during the “meet and greet” early phase of the campaign, Craft will soon have to define herself since she has not held elected office in the past.

“The only thing you can really tell about Kelly Craft through her announcement is that she’s for education and limited government and a lot of feel good things that people agree with. In the Barren County courthouse and before reporters, she’s going to have to offer more substance,” Cross said.

Connections to UK athletics and Donald Trump

Responses from other GOP candidates, as well as the Beshear campaign, have been swift. Several took the opportunity to respond in a way that highlighted the strengths of their own campaign – with a couple from the further right ‘Liberty’ wing of the party more directly taking shots at Craft, who is married to a billionaire coal magnate in Joe Craft, as an out of touch member of the elite.

The Crafts are prominent donors to University of Kentucky athletic programs – both UK Football’s head coach Mark Stoops and top recruiter Vince Marrow re-posted Kelly Craft’s announcement on Twitter, and basketball coach John Calipari recently hosted a fundraiser for Eastern Kentucky with the pair – as well as philanthropic endeavors throughout the state. Craft said that her joint $5 million winning bid on a country ham at a political event would mostly go to charity for the beleaguered region.

Daniel Cameron did not respond to a request for comment on Craft’s announcement, but in the hours following her release of a digital ad making it official, his team released its own ad flaunting Cameron’s endorsement from Trump.

Though Trump’s brand has suffered some in the wake of an FBI investigation into his handling of official documents, Salzman said the endorsement is still undoubtedly a positive in a GOP primary – particularly as crowded as this one is shaping up to be. He wondered if Craft may angle for his backing now that she’s in the race.

“Is there any desire for Trump to endorse her in the race, given their relationship? I don’t know why she wouldn’t want it to get out of the primary. I think any Republican running in a crowded primary is going to benefit with his endorsement,” Salzman said.

A spokesperson for Trump has yet to respond to a question about his Cameron endorsement in the wake of Craft’s announcement.

What are other candidates saying?

Commissioner of Agriculture Ryan Quarles took the opportunity to highlight his boots-on-the-ground campaign style, potentially in contrast to Craft and others. He said he expected a “spirited primary,” and that he’s focused on building a “grassroots, people-first campaign.”

Auditor Mike Harmon said that he thinks more people getting in benefits his odds. He thinks candidates with distinct regional appeal – he anticipates that he’ll do well in Boyle and the surrounding counties – could get a boost from the crowded field.

Somerset Mayor Alan Keck, who has not announced a run for governor but has said he’s seriously considering, said that competitive primaries are a healthy thing.

“I’d encourage (voters) to not only listen to what’s being said, but take a critical look at each candidate’s background and what he or she has actually accomplished. Scripture says we will be known by our fruit; that’s a good place to start for those who want to know more.”

Keck is among a handful of Republicans, including former governor Matt Bevin, who have not denied interest in jumping in the primary.

Kelly Craft part of record $5 million bid on charity ham, declines to share campaign ‘game plan’

Criticized as ‘country club candidate’

Northern Kentucky candidates Rep. Savannah Maddox, R-Dry Ridge, and Eric Deters were less subtle in their comments.

Deters derided her wealth as something that would hurt her ability to connect with everyday voters. He called Craft “the country club candidate” and suggested that she paid for her ambassadorships in the Trump administration.

Maddox contrasted Craft with “authentic Republicans” such as herself.

“Citizens are tired of out-of-touch elites foisting their liberal agenda on us, when they have no concept of what it’s like to choose between filling up their gas tank or filling their grocery cart,” Maddox said.

Like Madddox and Deters, the re-election campaign for Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear – as well as the Kentucky Democratic Party (KDP) – wasted no time in digging Craft.

Shortly after Craft’s launch, the KDP released a 1,255-word email bashing Craft by calling her a “Matt Bevin crony” and criticizing her absenteeism as ambassador to Canada. Beshear’s campaign warned that she was “ready to spend millions of her own money to defeat Andy.”

On Twitter, the party posted photo and video portraying Craft as too out of touch in the style of famous reality television series “Keeping up with the Kardashians” and “Real Housewives.”

University of Kentucky political science professor D. Stephen Voss said that some have called Craft’s speaking tone in the ad “pretty awkward,” and that a somewhat stilted sentence structure may not immediately draw voters in, potentially contributing to narratives that opponents to her right and left have launched.

What’s her lane to the GOP nomination?

Cross said that a major problem of Craft’s – proving her state policy bonafides – could be at least partially solved by her potential connection with Wise in the legislature.

Wise shepherded some high-profile bills through the state legislature this year on Name, Image, Likeness (NIL), abortion and education. Wise also may help, Cross noted, because his district is made up of a traditionally Republican part of the state; because so many voters are registered Republicans unlike many other conservative voters in the state, the region tends to punch above its weight in GOP primaries.

As for policy separation between Craft, Cameron and Quarles, Cross said it was hard to discern any differences there. There’s one exception, though.

“At this point, the primary distinguishing feature is level of support for Trump. That is a stock of declining value given his legal troubles… In a column, I’m suggesting that Craft ought to take the opportunity to say she thinks Biden won the election fair and square. If Trump gets in more trouble, there may be a lane for somebody like that,” Cross said.

A primary indicator for the style of campaign that Craft will run is her ad. Voss compared the tone of Craft’s messaging to former president Ronald Reagan’s famously successful “Morning in America” re-election campaign. He also noted that Craft, as the second woman to enter the race and ostensibly not as far to the right as Maddox, could do well with a segment of more moderate Republican women.

Jonathan Miller, a Democrat who served two terms as state Treasurer, and Cross both pointed to Craft’s money as potentially not as much of a problem given Kentucky history. Wealthy Democrats like John Y. Brown, Wallace Wilkinson, Paul Patton and Brereton Jones have all won on campaigns drawing from their own financial resources and touting their business acumen. Bevin did the same on the GOP side in 2015.

Miller added that Craft’s money is undoubtedly an advantage, but there could be a point of diminishing returns in a primary where only so many people vote.

“A primary is a smaller universe. In a governor’s race, which is different from any others, it’s really personal. A lot of these primary voters are going to expect to meet or have intimate contact with a campaign,” Miller said. “You can’t downplay the money at all, but she’s gonna have to really work the grassroots to establish the personal bond that people expect to establish with their governor.”

Since the Crafts have helped bankroll Kentucky GOP candidates in the past, some competitors may think twice about criticizing her, Salzman said, particularly if they don’t see her as a legitimate contender.

Candidate crowding could lead to the winner getting somewhere in the low 20s of the primary electorate, Salzman added, and might mean that smaller things – like region-specific appeal for Maddox or Keck, or Craft’s ties to the University of Kentucky – mattering that much more.

Strategy, he said, could then potentially play a bigger role than policy debates.

“What separates them is really going to be a lesson on party politics, endorsements and spending,” Salzman said.

Miller handicapped the race this way: there’s Bevin and Maddox, who he believes Beshear would beat, and then there’s “everyone else.”

“I think that Beshear would win overwhelmingly against a Bevin or Maddox, but with anyone else it’s going to be a tight race. My money is on Beshear. I think the more candidates that get into this primary, and the more money that is spent – particularly when we assume there’s going to be negative ads – the Beshear folks are thinking ‘the more the merrier.’