Does Fresno State have clear path to Mountain West title game? Here are the scenarios
Fresno State had control of its destiny in getting back to the Mountain West Conference championship game and defending a title it won by rattling off nine wins in a row to end the 2022 season. But while laying ostrich-sized eggs for four quarters last week in a never-in-it loss at San Jose State, the Bulldogs also got a boost with Hawaii knocking off Air Force and handing the Falcons their first conference loss.
The Bulldogs still are in the conference title race, and may have the easiest road to the title game among any of the five contenders.
Fresno State the final two weeks of the regular season will play New Mexico on Saturday and at San Diego State on Nov. 25. The Lobos and the Aztecs are tied for 11th or last place in the conference with 1-5 records.
All of the other contenders at this point play at least one team with a winning conference record in their final two games.
The standings:
Air Force: 5-1
UNLV: 5-1
Fresno State: 4-2
Boise State: 4-2
San Jose State: 4-2
The schedule:
Air Force: UNLV, at Boise State
UNLV: at Air Force, San Jose State
Fresno State: New Mexico, at San Diego State
Boise State: at Utah State, Air Force
San Jose State: San Diego State, at UNLV
The Bulldogs could host the championship game for the first time since 2013, with a lot of help. Fresno State would have to win out, Air Force would have to lose its two remaining games, Boise State would have to lose at Utah State and beat Air Force, UNLV would have to beat Air Force and lose to San Jose State, and San Jose State would have to lose to San Diego State and beat UNLV.
Under that scenario, Fresno State would host UNLV.
The chances of that happening? Not likely, with a San Diego State victory over San Jose State in the equation.
The Bulldogs’ cleanest path back to the championship game would be to win out, with UNLV also winning its final two games and Boise State beating Air Force.
Under that scenario, a 7-1 UNLV would host 6-2 Fresno State in the championship game, which will be played on Dec. 2 with kickoff scheduled for noon.
The chances on that one happening? It’s definitely possible, though who knows what Boise State will be like after firing coach Andy Avalos.
And that also would have Fresno State fans rooting for the Broncos, and that hasn’t worked out well in the past. In 2021, the Bulldogs would have advanced to the championship game if Boise State won at San Diego State on the final Saturday of the season.
The Aztecs won 27-16.
Fresno State also could finish in a three-way tie at 6-2 with UNLV and San Jose State, which would put the Bulldogs in San Jose for the championship game.
Beyond that there are a myriad of three- and four-way ties and under Mountain West tie-breaking procedures in the majority of those scenarios computers would likely decide the host and/or the visiting team in the title game.
The computers like Fresno State
Only Air Force or UNLV can finish 7-1, yet there are multiple scenarios where four teams finish 6-2.
To break a tie between three or more teams, the Mountain West would first go to the winning percentages of the tied teams in a mini round-robin format. If, within the mini round robin, any of the tied teams did not play each other, the group of teams shall remain tied, unless one team defeated all of the other teams.
If that doesn’t produce a matchup, the conference turns to the most recent College Football Playoff and further to a composite average of four computer models.
The championship game teams would be identified first by the tied teams that are ranked in the latest available CFP Ranking (Nov. 21) and win in the final weekend. If that doesn’t produce a matchup, it would then go to a composite average of selected computer rankings for the tied teams that lose in the final weekend of the regular season, or were not ranked in the CFP rankings.
The Mountain West this week has no teams ranked in the CFP rankings.
The computer rankings the conference employs to break ties are Anderson & Hester, the Massey Ratings, the Colley Matrix and Wolfe rankings.
Among the five teams in contention, Fresno State is ranked first or second in all four computer models and it is significantly ahead in the Massey ratings — it has the Bulldogs ranked 45th in the nation with Air Force 62nd, UNLV 69th, Boise State 73rd and San Jose State 81st.
That gives Fresno State a sizable lead in an average of the four rankings. The Bulldogs’ ranking average is 32.25, with UNLV at 40.5, Air Force at 47.5, San Jose State at 73.5 and Boise State at 75.0.
But to make that matter, they first have to win two football games.
