How did Michigan and Ohio State make the CFP last year? A perfect set of circumstances

Kevin Skiver, USA TODAY NETWORK

Last season's College Football Playoff saw a first: Both Michigan and Ohio State were able to get in as representatives of the Big Ten, the first time in CFP history two teams had made it in from a conference that wasn't the SEC or ACC.

Alabama and Georgia had both made it in the same year twice before, in 2017-18 and 2021-22. Clemson and Notre Did the same in 2020-21 with the Irish playing as a one-year member of the conference during the COVID-19 season. When Michigan and Ohio State met at 11-0 each last season, it was thought to likely be a repeat of the 2021-22 season, which was a "win and you're in" situation.

However, a very specific set of occurrences allowed both the Wolverines and Buckeyes to make the playoff. Although both Big Ten teams lost in the semifinals — with Michigan getting outplayed by TCU and Ohio State losing in dramatic fashion to Georgia — it has opened the door for the same thing to happen this year.

Whether it will, however, depends on myriad outside factors. Here's what had to happen last year in order for both teams to eke in — with Michigan at No. 2 and Ohio State at No. 4.

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2022 CFP rankings heading into The Game

Ohio State is currently ranked No. 2 while Michigan is No. 3, which is the same setup as last season. Here's how the top 10 shook out on Nov. 22, 2022:

  • 1. Georgia (11-0)

  • 2. Ohio State (11-0)

  • 3. Michigan (11-0)

  • 4. TCU (11-0)

  • 5. LSU (9-2)

  • 6. USC (10-1)

  • 7. Alabama (9-2)

  • 8. Clemson (10-1)

  • 9. Oregon (9-2)

  • 10. Tennessee (9-2)

The teams who viably had playoff paths outside of the top four at that point were USC and Clemson, each with one loss; other teams in contention were 9-2 LSU and Alabama teams, which despite their multiple losses received buzz as possible contenders (LSU more so because it had a date with Georgia in the SEC championship game). Oregon had already dropped games to Georgia and Washington, and Tennessee had lost to Georgia and South Carolina.

Now, this is important: For the Michigan-Ohio State pairing to work, it had to start here: LSU found itself upended by Texas A&M during and Clemson had its season upended by South Carolina, both in Rivalry Week. That made both two-loss teams, which shrunk the field down to Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, TCU, USC, and Alabama.

Even with that loss, LSU played the Bulldogs in the SEC title game, which didn't allow Alabama (which had a head-to-head loss vs. the Tigers) to get that resume booster. If Alabama had played in that game and won, things could have turned out differently. But more importantly, USC lost to Utah in the Pac-12 championship game, which took the Trojans out as a two-loss team as well (with both of its losses coming to Utah).

That brought the field down to Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State, TCU, and Alabama. Even though TCU lost the Big 12 championship game to Kansas State in overtime, the committee still saw fit to give the Horned Frogs the third spot — as opposed to rewarding Alabama for not playing during championship week — while slotting Ohio State in at No. 4.

Here is how the final rankings looked heading into championship weekend, and where those teams ended up:

  • No. 1 Georgia (beat LSU in SEC championship, remained No. 1)

  • No. 2 Michigan (beat Purdue in Big Ten championship, remained No. 2)

  • No. 3 TCU (lost to Kansas State in Big 12 championship, remained No. 3)

  • No. 4 USC (lost to Utah in Pac-12 championship, dropped to No. 10)

  • No. 5 Ohio State (idle, moved to No. 4)

  • No. 6 Alabama (idle, moved to No. 5)

To date, a two-loss team has never made it into the College Football Playoff. With how this year is shaping up, it never will in the four-team era. Even though TCU lost in its championship game and Ohio State stayed home without playing in the conference championship, Alabama — which would be the presumptive fourth team in many years — didn't get a chance to play in its conference championship and had a loss OSU didn't.

CFP selection chair Boo Corrigan, in his words, said Ohio State's resume was simply stronger:

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“Well I think you look at the big wins as well as part of this,” Corrigan said. “And the win that Ohio State has over Notre Dame, the win they have over Penn State, compare that to Alabama with the wins over Texas, Mississippi State, some other close games. Again, keep in mind that the Michigan game did get away from them but it was a one-score game early in the fourth quarter.”

Ultimately, it's subjective, as these things always are. But that subjectivity allowed both the Wolverines and the Buckeyes in last season. Although that scenario is unlikely this year — the Pac-12 and Big 12's big seasons all but ensure that — that will only serve to heighten the urgency between Michigan and Ohio State.

This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: How did Michigan, Ohio State both make 2022 College Football Playoff?

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