What did we learn from the Florida primaries? Schools, abortion, turnout and pocketbooks

It’s Monday, Aug. 29, and we’re off to the races for the 2022 mid-term in Florida.

Charlie Crist, the former Republican governor of Florida, defeated Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried with 60% of the vote in the Democratic primary and now faces Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis in the race for governor.

Orlando Congresswoman Val Demings easily won the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate and now takes on incumbent Republican Sen. Marco Rubio.

With DeSantis and Rubio leading the GOP ticket, coupled with a surge in Republican voter registration and a pandemic-polarized political environment that has pushed the state to the right, GOP candidates enter the general election with more than the advantage of incumbency. They have a definite edge.

So, the obvious question: Is Florida still a swing state?

The primary provided us with some clues.

Miami-Dade leans Republican: In Miami-Dade County, which still has a Democratic registration edge despite the party losing over 3.5% of its registered voters since 2018, two candidates for Miami-Dade County Commission backed by former President Donald Trump and the two Miami-Dade School Board candidates backed by Gov. Ron DeSantis all scored wins.

If Florida’s largest county is performing for Republicans, where does that leave Democrats?

Abortion, the Dems cornerstone: Democrats are counting on galvanizing voters behind reproductive rights and are operating on the assumption that, unless defeated, the GOP-controlled executive and legislative branches will pass an outright ban in Florida.

An internal Democratic Governor’s Association poll of likely general election voters, leaked to NBC News, found that DeSantis leads Crist by 5 percent points. But the race tightens if independent voters sour on DeSantis when they are told his views on abortion, property insurance and other cost of living issues.

Will GOP enact a full ban? Florida Republicans knew abortion would be a politically delicate issue for them earlier this year when, instead of taking the approach of Texas and some other states, the governor and legislators rejected an outright abortion ban and instead passed the 15-week abortion ban with no exception for rape or incest. Polls show the 15-week limit is unpopular with a majority of Floridians, but the governor has repeatedly avoided answering whether he supports a full abortion ban.

Collateral damage: In Broward County, veteran Democratic state Rep. James Bush, who voted with Republicans to support the 15-week abortion ban and the bill barring classroom discussions about sexual orientation or gender identity, lost his reelection bid. Also defeated was Jared Smith, an incumbent circuit judge in Hillsborough County who gained notoriety when he rejected a teenager’s request for an abortion because he deemed her not mature enough.

Enthusiasm edge: Primary elections in mid-term years are traditionally low voter turnout. This year, with only one statewide GOP primary on the ballot, the statewide voter turnout was slightly lower than four years ago, according to Florida’s Department of State: 25.87%, compared to 27% in 2018.

But a Miami Herald analysis found that Republicans appear to have the advantage in voter enthusiasm and turned out their voters in significantly higher numbers in counties with the most Republicans registered, compared to the Democratic turnout in the counties Democrats dominated.

Dems underperforming: In Miami-Dade County, for example, Democrats slightly underperformed Republicans in turnout. And in some rural North Florida counties, — where conservative white voters are still registered as Democrats — nearly 30% of the Democratic ballots in Liberty, Holmes, Union and Baker counties were either left blank or didn’t vote for Crist or Fried.

It’s about schools: With no statewide primary election for the governor, DeSantis turned his energy into politicizing dozens of non-partisan school board races . It was a good gamble.

Of the 30 conservative candidates backed by DeSantis and an unprecedented amount of cash he helped raise, 19 won their elections outright, five lost, and six are gearing up for runoff elections in November.

Crist counters with running mate: Three days after securing the Democratic nomination, Charlie Crist wasted no time to offer up a counter to DeSantis’ efforts to control the debate over the future of Florida’s schools. Crist named United Teachers of Dade President Karla Hernández-Mats as his running mate.

In a conventional election year, Hernández-Mats would be an unconventional choice: a special-education teacher with no previous experience in elected office and no statewide name recognition. But this is no ordinary election year and schools are the battlefield after DeSantis elevated his fight with school boards over mask mandates and sparked a feud over what he calls — but has not defined —a “woke” agenda, and how racial and gender identity is taught in schools.

How independent will school boards be? A year ago, the Miami-Dade School Board, under then-Superintendent Alberto Carvalho, defied the governor’s ban on school mask mandates, requiring students and staff to wear facial coverings for the start of the 2021-22 school year as the delta variant surged in the state.

Now, after Tuesday’s elections that gave DeSantis-backed candidates 19 seats on several boards, the question is: Will the boards capitulate to political pressures in the future, or remain independent? It’s an open question.

Broward suspensions: In response to the findings of a statewide grand jury that investigated the Broward school district’s response to the 2018 Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School mass shooting, DeSantis suspended four Broward County School Board members for “incompetence, neglect of duty, and misuse of authority.” He replaced the four women with four men.

Pocketbook issues: Hovering over the general election is the widespread uneasiness about the cost of living in Florida. In nearly every major national ranking on housing, energy, healthcare, property insurance and food, the cost for those basics in Florida is higher than it is in most other states.

Crist blames global forces, the pandemic and interrupted supply chains for inflation. DeSantis blames Biden for cost of living increases and says his efforts to keep businesses open during the pandemic rescued Florida’s economy.

Property insurance: One festering problem, however, is the state of Florida’s property insurance market. United Property & Casualty Insurance Co. announced last week it is the latest company to exit Florida’s troubled homeowners’ insurance market, forcing customers to find new coverage as their policies come up for renewal.

Toll road credits: DeSantis is sensitive to these worries. Two days after the primary, DeSantis announced what he estimated would be $40 million in discounts to commuters who frequently use the Florida Turnpike network. The roads are owned by the Florida Department of Transportation and do not include the Miami-Dade Expressway and Central Florida Expressway.

The program would begin in September and last for six months. It would be up to the Legislature to enact a permanent discount and expand it to other toll roads.

Where they stand: Here is a summary of DeSantis and Crist’s public statements and promises to date on: reproductive rights, the environment, education, gun rights, the cost of living in Florida, and voting rights.

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING

More FPL malfeasance: Florida Power & Light’s political consultants paid for a spoiler candidate’s salary and rent as he challenged Daniella Levine Cava in the 2018 Miami-Dade County commissioner race. The scheme may have violated campaign finance law as the elaborate operation employed by FPL’s consultants relied on a network of secretive nonprofits, out-of-state consultants, and shell corporations to shield the nation’s largest electric company from being revealed as the source of millions of dollars in political funds used to influence the race.

Student loan relief: President Biden announced he would cancel up to to $10,000 in federal student loan debt for borrowers with an income of less than $125,000 for an individual and $250,000 for a household and up to $20,000 for Pell Grant borrowers. He also extended the pause on student loan repayments until Dec. 31.

According to the U.S. Department of Education, an estimated 90 percent of relief dollars will go to those earning less than $75,000.

Mixed reaction: How do Americans feel about the loan forgiveness plan? According to an Emerson College poll, the reaction has been very mixed: 36% think the $10,000 cancellation is too much, 35% think it is just the right amount, and 30% think it is not enough.

Other races to watch: The general election lineup for Florida’s Cabinet races is set for November: established, well-funded — and Donald Trump-endorsed — Republicans will be running against Democrats facing long odds.

Aramis Ayala beat Daniel Uhlfelder and Jim Lewis in the Democratic primary for attorney general with nearly 45% of the vote. She will challenge Republican Attorney General Ashley Moody. In the race to become Florida’s next agriculture commissioner, Democrat Naomi Blemur will face Republican Wilton Simpson, the president of the Florida Senate. Blemur, 43, who owns a business consulting firm, received several endorsements from prominent Democrats. And Democrat Adam Hattersley will face off against incumbent Republican Jimmy Patronis.

Florida state Sen. Annette Taddeo will challenge incumbent Republican María Elvira Salazar in what may be the only competitive congressional race in Miami, after both won their respective primary contests for Florida’s 27th Congressional District.

Miami Gardens state Sen. Shevrin Jones fended off two challengers to represent Miami-Dade’s Senate District 34. And Lauren Book, the Democratic leader in the Florida Senate, beat former Broward County Commissioner Barbara Sharief, after a hard-fought race.

Feds ask judge to reject Florida voter law: Parts of Florida’s 2021 election law should be thrown out because it discriminates against Black voters, the U.S. Department of Justice said in a brief filed last week before the 11th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals. Chief U.S. District Judge Mark Walker ruled last year that the law is racially discriminatory . The law was enacted by Florida’s Republican-controlled Legislature and signed by the governor in 2021 as GOP leaders across the country pushed to revamp elections laws after former President Donald Trump’s loss in 2020.

Nuñez clarifies Cuba comment: After coming under attack by Democrats last week, Florida Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nuñez clarified her comments on Cuban migrants being bused to Delaware, saying there is a distinction between migrants here illegally and those who have refugee and asylum status. Nuñez’s comments have renewed attention on a controversial immigration program DeSantis has vowed to implement but has yet to roll out.

At the governor’s request, the Florida Department of Transportation has access to $12 million to contract with private transportation companies to bus undocumented immigrants out of the state. But last week, DeSantis suggested the program is on standby because of Texas efforts to bus migrants to Democrat-controlled states has “taken the pressure off” him to implement his program.

Rising cost of protecting the governor: Floridians spent more than $6.097 million during the 2021-22 fiscal year on protective services for the Gov. Ron DeSantis and his family during the 2021-22 fiscal year, more than 25 percent more protecting than in the previous fiscal year, according to a new state report. The increase coincides with the governor’s emergence as a national Republican celebrity, as he traveled to fundraisers and speaking engagements to position himself to run for president in 2024. There were $2.391 million for costs related to transportation.

Gotta read this one: When Florida residents Aimee Harris and Robert Kurlander got access to he stolen diary and other possessions of Ashley Biden, daughter of the president, during the 2020 campaign, they immediately saw dollar signs. So they first tried to sell the purloined papers to Donald Trump’s 2020 campaign. Then, they turned to Project Veritas, the conservative group that specializes in infiltrating news organizations. The group paid them $40,000 and investigators pounced. Harris and Kurlander now face up to five years in prison after pleading guilty to conspiring to transport stolen property across state lines.

Remember Andrew: Hurricane Andrew roared ashore on Aug. 24, 1992 — 30 years ago. The Category 5 storm changed lives in South Florida, destroyed homes and landmarks. And it left indelible memories of survival. Here’s are five ways the storm forever changed South Florida. Here’s our photo gallery.

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Miami Herald Capitol Bureau Chief Mary Ellen Klas curates the Politics and Policy in the Sunshine State newsletter. We appreciate our readers and if you have any ideas or suggestions, please drop me a note at meklas@miamiherald.com.

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