Detroit Tigers' Colt Keith all but guaranteed to be 2024 Opening Day second baseman

Colt Keith hasn't been guaranteed a spot on the Opening Day roster, but barring an unexpected injury or complete collapse in his performance, he is going to jog onto the dirt at Guaranteed Rate Field as the Detroit Tigers' second baseman for the March 28 season opener against the White Sox in Chicago.

The Tigers, regardless of Keith's contract, planned for the 22-year-old top prospect to be their Opening Day second baseman, a situation born both of their desire to win games early in the season and his incredible performance in the minor leagues. But they're still leaving some room for him to prove it.

"Colt has to earn a spot on our Opening Day roster," Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris said Tuesday at Comerica Park. "Hopefully, by investing in him and giving him this contract, we are showing that we expect him to make a very compelling case in spring training to be our Opening Day starter at second base, but he has to earn it just like every other player."

THE DEAL: Tigers sign Colt Keith to contract extension worth up to $82 million over 9 years

The investment: Keith is guaranteed $28.6425 million over the length of his new six-year contract, from 2024-29. He can earn up to $82 million over nine years, however, if all three of the club options are escalated by Keith winning awards and exercised by the Tigers.

Those options are worth a combined $38 million; Keith can unlock another $18 million in escalators.

"At the end of the day, I have zero service time and don't have an at-bat," Keith said Tuesday. "For them to have that faith in me shows that they love me and want me here for a long time. That in itself really swayed my decision. Also, the money was there for what I was comfortable taking."

In 2023, Keith hit .306 with 27 home runs, 60 walks (10.4% walk rate) and 121 strikeouts (21% strikeout rate) across 126 games with Double-A Erie (59 games) and Triple-A Toledo (67 games). He hit .287 and 13 homers with the Mud Hens.

Be ready to watch him play on Opening Day in Chicago, even if Harris can't say that yet.

"This contract is a lot of things," Harris said. "It demonstrates our belief in Colt. It changes his paycheck. It gives him the recognition that he deserves. It doesn't fundamentally change his development timeline."

Here are some other takeaways from Keith's news conference, which lasted nearly 30 minutes:

'Positives and negatives'

Off the bat, Keith admitted the risks of signing the long-term contract. He could be leaving tens of millions of dollars — possibly hundreds of millions of dollars — on the table by delaying free agency from age 28 until age 31.

"There are positives and negatives and risks on both sides," Keith said. "Worst case for both of us, the organization and myself, is I don't pan out and I end up with security, financially, for me and my family for the rest of our lives. Best case for both of us is all of the option years are exercised, we win a couple of World Series, I make myself a boatload of money, and I'm still a free agent at 31."

MORE ABOUT IT: How Tigers, Colt Keith agreed to contract extension without ever playing in MLB

Keith is under team control for the next nine years. The six-year contract concludes in 2029, but the Tigers have club options in 2030, 2031 and 2032.

It's a club-friendly deal.

But Keith will never work for the MLB minimum salary, set at $740,000 in 2024. Keith is guaranteed to receive $2.5 million in 2024, even if he never plays an MLB game. Teammates Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene and Parker Meadows, who combined for 45 big-league homers last season, remain under contract for the minimum salary as pre-arbitration players.

"Put the client first and provide him with the information that he needs to make a well-informed decision," said Keith's agent, Matt Paul of Munger English Sports Management. "At the end of the day, it's Colt's decision, and we support him. It's not our decision. I'm here to support Colt, and I feel good about it. We're approaching this with a level of optimism. We're not second guessing ourselves. Colt's not second guessing his decision. We feel like both parties are sharing risks here. ... We did our research. We did our homework. We feel like this is fair and equitable for both sides, so we're happy about it."

Triple-A adjustment

It's a low-risk contract for the Tigers to take on because Keith won't earn more than $5 million in a single season before getting to the club options in Years 7-9. Still, the Tigers had to decide to approach Keith's agent about the idea of the extension.

MORE ABOUT HIM: Colt Keith thinks like Conor McGregor, plays like Joey Votto, looks like Tigers' best prospect

Harris was motivated to pick up the phone in late December because of an adjustment he noticed in Triple-A Toledo last season. (The Tigers promoted Keith from Double-A Erie to Triple-A Toledo in late June.)

"Triple-A pitchers started to attack him in very specific ways," Harris said Tuesday. "They started to exploit weaknesses in his swing and in his approach. Colt recognized those patterns early, and he worked to not only close those holes but drive those pitches for damage. It's really hard to do, especially for someone his age."

Harris was talking about changeups down.

"My swing was messed up," Keith told the Free Press in December. "I was on my front side a lot, and they would changeup me to death. ... If you're staying back, you can see it and recognize it and hit those (changeups) that are staying in the zone, but I wasn't reading it. ... I fixed it and ended up crushing that changeup. The last thing they started trying to do was go fastballs in, and I was able to crush those and get pull-happy a little bit."

Switching to second base

The Tigers drafted Keith out of his Mississippi high school in 2020's fifth (and final) round as a shortstop, but he entered the farm system playing both third base and second base.

He has more than 1,000 innings at third base, compared to just 597⅓ innings at second base. The Tigers, however, will employ Keith as a second baseman in 2024.

"We think the way his body works, all the work that he put in on his agility and his flexibility, is going to give him an opportunity to make a lot of plays at second base for us," Harris said. "We also think that it's going to save a little bit of the load on his arm and allow him to play the position really well to help us win games."

Keith suffered a shoulder injury in 2022, missing four months, and tweaked the same shoulder in the 2023, missing a few games. The full-time switch to second base happened after the Tigers promoted Keith to Triple-A Toledo last season.

"My shoulder was bugging me at the beginning of the year," Keith said. "We all know that. I was designated hitter a lot, sitting a lot, whatever. That's how it is with a labrum injury. It takes a while for your body to get used to that. For it to heal fully, it takes years."

His shoulder felt healthy by the end of the season, but he ended up being more comfortable at second base.

"I just felt so much better at second," Keith said. "I don't know why. Maybe I see the ball longer and better off the bat because of the angles, but I felt natural there. I felt like I had way more range. I was making diving plays, turning double plays and working those arm slots. It was way more freeing. At third, I was reading the ball bad and making errors sometimes. I just feel more comfortable at second."

This offseason, Keith worked on his up-the-middle defense with Hall of Fame shortstop Alan Trammell and new Tigers infield coach Joey Cora to prepare for the upcoming season. He will take groundballs at second and third in spring training.

"We're not closing the door on third base at all," Harris said. "I think the primary focus for us this year, given the makeup of our team, is going to be at second base."

Who's on third?

Third base wasn't discussed at Keith's news conference, but as a reminder, Matt Vierling is expected to spend a majority of his time playing third base while Keith's fellow prospect, Jace Jung, prepares for his MLB debut in Triple-A Toledo.

If all goes as planned, Jung will be the Tigers' everyday third baseman by the end of the 2024 season.

"I think it's OK in December not to know," Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said in early December at the winter meetings. "As I look around the field, that's where the players are going to look and see if they can grab a couple of at-bats. That would be my expectation."

Vierling is the frontrunner to grab the large majority of the at-bats as the third baseman. Andy Ibáñez should factor into the plans as well, while prospect Justyn-Henry Malloy will be a corner outfielder and designated hitter because of his poor defense at third.

Earlier in the offseason, Ibáñez, Malloy and Akil Baddoo traveled to Miami and spent a week doing outfield drills with bench coach (and outfield instructor) George Lombard.

It's interesting that Ibáñez, primarily a second baseman last season (with only eight starts at third despite the vacancy), was a part of the offseason outfield group. He played 21 games in the outfield last season after making a few appearances there in the minor leagues.

Contact Evan Petzold at epetzold@freepress.com or follow him @EvanPetzold.

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This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Detroit Tigers' Colt Keith locked in at 2B for 2024 Opening Day