Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers in NFC championship: Scouting report, prediction
No. 3 seed Detroit Lions at No. 1 seed San Francisco 49ers
The coaches: Lions — Dan Campbell (29-33-1 overall, 24-26-1 with Lions, 2-0 in playoffs); 49ers — Kyle Shanahan (64-51 overall, 64-51 with 49ers, 7-3 in playoffs).
Last game: Lions beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 31-23; 49ers beat the Green Bay Packers, 24-21.
Last meeting: Sept. 12, 2021: 49ers won, 41-33.
Key matchups
Lions RT Penei Sewell vs. 49ers DE Nick Bosa: Sewell made his NFL debut against Bosa and the 49ers three years ago, when he played left tackle in the 2021 season opener in place of an injured Taylor Decker.
Bosa had one sack, two more quarterback hits and another pressure in that game, all on Sewell, but the veteran pass rusher came away impressed with his rookie counterpart, telling reporters after the game, “He’s going to be good.”
Sewell, now in his third season, has been more than good. He’s the best right tackle in football and he’ll see plenty of Bosa (10½ sacks) on Sunday.
“He’s excellent with both pass pro and the run game,” Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson said of Sewell. “I don’t know if there’s a better combination of the two at the tackle position in the league right now. But really, where I’ve seen the most growth is the leadership factor. You see guys looking to him now. He is a tone-setter for us here on offense.”
49ers RB Christian McCaffrey vs. Lions LB Alex Anzalone: The Lions and 49ers were the only teams to finish in the NFL's top five in passing, rushing, total and scoring offense. San Francisco has one of the most dynamic and balanced offenses in the NFL, and McCaffrey is the engine that makes it go.
He led the league in rushing and total touchdowns this season, is a dangerous receiving threat out of the backfield and his presence helps create deep shots for the passing game. It will take a team effort to stop him, though Anzalone will be at the forefront of the pack as the Lions’ leading tackler and the nerve center of their defense.
“He’s a hell of a weapon for them,” Lions defensive lineman John Cominsky said. “He’s just got a great center of gravity, one cut and he’s up the field. He’s got his shoulders down and out. Just simple technique makes him a great back.”
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Scouting report
Lions run offense vs. 49ers run defense
The Lions leaned heavily on the pass early in last week’s win over the Bucs to try and unlock the run, but they could take a more traditional approach Sunday. The 49ers had the NFL’s third-ranked run defense (89.7 yards per game) in the regular season but have given up more than 100 yards rushing in four of their past five games and had minimal success stopping Aaron Jones (18 carries, 103 yards) last week.
David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs give the Lions one of the best running back tandems in the NFL, though they’ve had trouble getting started recently. Montgomery is averaging 3.8 yards per carry in the playoffs; Gibbs had three straight subpar games before scoring on a 31-yard run against Tampa.
The Lions have some injury concerns on their offensive line. Kayode Awosika will start at left guard in place of Jonah Jackson (knee), and center Frank Ragnow is playing through knee, ankle and toe pain. The 49ers have two of the best stack linebackers in football in Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw. Edge: Lions
Lions pass offense vs. 49ers pass defense
Jared Goff has been lights-out in the playoffs, completing nearly 75% of his passes the past two weeks without a turnover, but he hasn’t done much to stretch the field — only two pass attempts of 20-plus-yards this postseason.
The Lions might be able to take a few more shots downfield against a 49ers defense that has one of the lowest blitz rates in the NFL. Rookie tight end Sam LaPorta has tough matchups against the 49ers' speedy linebackers, but Amon-Ra St. Brown has touchdowns in five of the Lions’ past six games and has topped 100 yards receiving in four of those contests.
Bosa leads a talented four-man front that does a good job applying pressure inside with Arik Armstead and Javon Kinlaw. Charvarius Ward (five interceptions) might be the best cornerback the Lions have faced this season, so look for Johnson to try and create favorable matchups against ex-Detroit King and Michigan corner Ambry Thomas (70.2% completion rate against, per Pro Football Reference). Edge: 49ers
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49ers run offense vs. Lions run defense
Shanahan runs a souped-up version of the same wide zone rushing scheme that helped his dad, Mike, win two Super Bowls with the Denver Broncos in the 1990s. The 49ers use motions and different personnel looks to create matchup advantages, and Campbell said they have “a bully mentality and they have an identity, an attitude, sound schemes” which they use “to test your boundaries. They’re going to find weaknesses and then just try to pepper you on those.”
McCaffrey is the most dangerous offensive talent in the NFL, a north-south runner who was blessed with great vision. He had 2,023 yards from scrimmage during the regular season to go with 21 touchdowns. He will get the vast majority of touches at running back, though the 49ers occasionally deploy receiver Deebo Samuel (37 carries, 225 yards) out of the backfield.
The Lions haven’t allowed a team to top 89 yards rushing in six straight games, though the Bucs averaged nearly 6 yards per carry before abandoning the run last week, and they haven't given up 70 yards in a game to a running back all season. To keep McCaffrey under that number, Anzalone, Derrick Barnes and the rest of the linebacking unit need to gang tackle and shut off his cut-back lanes. Edge: Lions
READ MORE: For Lions, stopping 49ers' star-studded offense begins with shutting down run
49ers pass offense vs. Lions pass defense
The 49ers had the most explosive passing attack in the NFL this season, leading the league in yards per pass (8.9) and number of pass plays of at least 20 and 40 yards (75 and 15, respectively). Second-year quarterback Brock Purdy operates with precision. He doesn’t take many sacks because he gets rid of the ball quickly, and he’s not afraid to challenge defenses in the middle of the field.
Samuel will play despite a shoulder injury that limited him to nine snaps against the Packers, and the 49ers have plenty of other weapons in the pass game including McCaffrey, 1,300-yard receiver Brandon Aiyuk and All-Pro tight end George Kittle.
Campbell said Wednesday he’s “willing to give up something to get something,” and the Lions have taken that approach on defense, creating turnovers and sacks with an array of defensive back blitzes in recent weeks while living with the big plays their secondary sometimes gives up. They’ve allowed a 100-yard receiver in five straight games, and Cam Sutton will have his hands full with Aiyuk. Edge: 49ers
Special teams
Neither the Lions (20th) nor the 49ers (25th) fared well in Rick Gosselin’s special teams rankings this season, but the Lions led the league in opposing drive start (23.7-yard line) and are the NFL’s most aggressive team when it comes to fake punts. That’s always something to watch for from Campbell in a game like this, even with punter Jack Fox kicking the ball as well as he has all season. Kalif Raymond will miss his third straight game with a knee injury, so Donovan Peoples-Jones should handle punt returns again. And Michael Badgley is 6-for-6 on field goals since replacing Riley Patterson in mid-December.
The 49ers were atrocious on special teams last week, surviving a 73-yard kick return and a blocked kick to beat the Packers. They ranked in the bottom half of the league in kick- and punt-return average, for and against, though Lions special teams coordinator Dave Fipp said 49ers safety George Odum is “as good (a special teams player) as any guy that we’ve played against all year long.” Rookie kicker Jake Moody had his ups and downs this season, but the former Michigan star made a huge 52-yard field goal last week and was 21-for-25 on field goals in the regular season. Mitch Wishnowsky grossed 47.7 yards per punt this year, and Ray-Ray McCloud should handle returns. Edge: Lions
Prediction
The 49ers have been the best team in the NFC this season, and I do think they have a better roster than the Lions, with more top-end talent and better playmakers on both sides of the ball. But I’ve seen enough Disney movies to know most sports-related Cinderella stories are based on real life, and this Lions season has that kind of feel to it.
The Lions are a good team and they’re playing with a boatload of confidence. Goff hasn’t turned the ball over this postseason, Aidan Hutchinson has been on a monthlong heater and there will be a ton of Lions fans in attendance Sunday. This game is going down to the wire, and whoever has the ball last is going to Las Vegas for Super Bowl 58. I trust Campbell in late-game situations and I think the Lions are headed to the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history. Pick: Lions 28, 49ers 27
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Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him @davebirkett.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Lions vs. 49ers: Why I think Detroit is finally going to Super Bowl
