Detroit Lions vs. New Orleans Saints: Dave Birkett's scouting report, prediction
Detroit Lions (8-3) at New Orleans Saints (5-6)
The coaches: Lions — Dan Campbell (25-31-1 overall, 19-24-1 with Lions); Saints — Dennis Allen (20-44 overall, 12-16 with Saints).
Last game: Lions lost to the Green Bay Packers, 29-22; Saints lost to the Atlanta Falcons, 24-15.
Last meeting: Oct. 4, 2020: Saints won, 35-29.
Key matchups
Saints TE Taysom Hill vs. Lions LB Jack Campbell: Campbell will have more responsibility this week with Alex Anzalone out with a wrist injury. He’s expected to wear the defensive headset the majority of the game, and Hill is the Saints player he’ll need to be most aware of when setting the defense.
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One of the most unique talents in the NFL, Hill plays tight end, quarterback, running back and on special teams for the Saints, who ask him to run routes, throw the ball, block, run and operate their wildcat package. Knowing where Hill is when he’s on the field, and what the Saints are trying to accomplish by the position groups he’s in, is key to stopping New Orleans’ offense.
“I feel like he’s just a guy who can do literally everything,” Campbell said. “He’s a hard runner. You’re going to have to wrap him up. We have to tackle him, but he also, he’s a really good route runner and he can also throw the ball and he can also block, so pick your poison with him but just have the utmost respect for him.”
Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Saints CB Paulson Adebo: St. Brown needs 7 yards for his second straight 1,000-yard receiving season, and he should get them Sunday despite the Saints having one of the NFL's stingiest pass defenses. New Orleans has allowed just two receivers to top 100 yards in a game this season and Adebo leads the team with four interceptions.
St. Brown has had at least six catches and 70 yards in all but one game this season, but the Packers limited his touches until late in the game last week. Adebo, who has an impressive passer rating against of 46.6 this season, and the Saints will have to do the same if they have any chance of winning Sunday.
Scouting report
Lions run offense vs. Saints run defense
Lions running backs coach Scottie Montgomery compared his backfield to a peanut butter and jelly sandwich, saying David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs go great together, as they’ve proven in recent weeks. Since David Montgomery returned from an October rib injury, both backs have three touchdowns and three straight games of more than 70 scrimmage yards.
The Lions don’t always split the running back workload 50-50, but Montgomery and Gibbs are unique enough that they can both be impactful while playing part-time. They should get a boost Sunday with the return of left guard Jonah Jackson, who hasn’t played since he had a big role in the team’s 200-yard game against the Los Angeles Chargers.
The Saints allowed a season-worst 228 yards rushing to the Atlanta Falcons last week, including 10 carries of at least 10 yards. A handful of those rushes came on end-arounds and quarterback scrambles, and the Saints could be without important starters — Cam Jordan, Pete Werner and Marcus Maye — on all three levels of their run defense. Edge: Lions
Lions pass offense vs. Saints pass defense
Jared Goff has been in a turnover rut the past two weeks with three lost fumbles and three interceptions, and he’ll have to be careful Sunday against one of the NFL's most opportunistic defenses. The Saints rank second in the league with 14 interceptions and are sixth with a plus-six turnover margin.
Goff isn’t likely to be under much duress Sunday against a defense that ranks 31st in sack percentage. When he has time in the pocket, he’s very accurate. St. Brown leads the Lions (and ranks fifth in the NFL) with 82 catches, and Gibbs and fellow rookie Sam LaPorta have been the Lions’ next two most reliable pass-catchers.
The Saints have one of the NFL’s more aggressive secondaries. They challenge opposing receivers with tight coverage and have good personnel in the back end led by Paulson and veteran safety Tyrann Mathieu. Carl Granderson leads the Saints with 5½ sacks. Edge: Saints
Saints run offense vs. Lions run defense
Jamaal Williams is proof how much an offensive line matters in the NFL. Last season, with the Lions, Williams had his first 1,000-yard rushing season and led the league with 17 rushing touchdowns; this season, he has been a nonfactor, with 47 carries for 137 yards and no TDs.
As a team, the Saints have cobbled together a serviceable running game despite both Williams and Alvin Kamara missing time this season. Kamara leads the Saints with 457 yards rushing, but he’s not the same playmaker (averaging 3.8 yards per attempt) he was early in his career. Hill must be accounted for as a wildcat option and could be a major factor, given the Lions’ struggles against mobile quarterbacks. Justin Fields had 104 yards rushing in Week 11, and even Jordan Love had a 37-yard run last week.
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The Lions have been good against the run otherwise. They rank among the top 10 in rushing yards allowed per game and per play, but Anzalone’s loss can’t be understated. Jack Campbell and Derrick Barnes will play most of the game at linebacker, and the Lions need big days from their interior defensive line. Edge: Lions
Saints pass offense vs. Lions pass defense
The Lions don’t get an edge over many teams when it comes to pass defense because of their inconsistent pass rush and personnel deficiencies in the secondary, but Derek Carr is a below-average quarterback and the Saints don’t have many healthy options at receiver.
Carr has 10 touchdown passes in 11 games and has failed to reach 200 yards in four of his starts, but he does have the lowest interception percentage (1.3%) among qualified starters. Leading receiver Chris Olave is questionable for Sunday because of a brain injury, No. 2 receiver Rashid Shaheed is out with a thigh injury and Michael Thomas is on IR with a knee injury. If Olave can’t play, Kamara will be Carr’s top receiver.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed 67% of their passes against the Lions the past five games, with 11 touchdowns and two interceptions. The Lions have failed to record a sack in three of those games, and need someone other than Aidan Hutchinson and Alim McNeill to harass Carr on Sunday. Edge: Lions
Special teams
Shaheed’s absence is a blow to the Saints’ special teams units, too. He’s a dangerous return man who took a punt back 76 yards for a touchdown against the Packers earlier this season. The Saints have some of the NFL's best coverage units — allowing just 5.4 yards per punt return this season — but they employ undrafted rookies at both specialist spots. Lou Hedley is netting 39.9 yards per punt, while Blake Grupe has been erratic, with six missed field goals.
Riley Patterson has not attempted a field goal since hitting the game-winning 41-yarder against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 10. He did miss an extra point last week, when the Lions also failed on a fake punt attempt for the first time under Dan Campbell. The Lions generally win the field position battle on special teams thanks to Jack Fox’s strong leg on kickoffs and punts. Kalif Raymond is averaging 10.5 yards per punt return. Edge: Lions
Prediction
The Lions have won three of their past four games, but they aren’t playing their best football heading into December. Their defense has struggled with rush and coverage, and turnovers have hampered the offense. The Saints are one of the best in the league at creating takeaways, and that’s their recipe to a win Sunday. They aren’t a good team overall, but their aggressive defense has gotten turnovers in bunches (13) in their five wins; they’ll need a couple Sunday to set their offense up for success.
Jackson’s pending return should alleviate some of the pressure Goff has faced up front, and I don’t think the Saints are good enough offensively to take advantage of the Lions’ defensive shortcomings without extra possessions. In a game that’s meaningful to Dan Campbell because of the five years he spent in New Orleans as an assistant, his team pulls through with an easy victory. The pick: Lions 31, Saints 23.
Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @davebirkett.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Why I think Detroit Lions win in Dan Campbell's return to New Orleans
