Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings: Dave Birkett's scouting report, prediction
Minnesota Vikings (7-9) at Detroit Lions (11-5)
The coaches: Lions — Dan Campbell (28-33-1 overall, 23-26-1 with Lions); Vikings — Kevin O’Connell (20-13 overall, 20-13 with Vikings).
Last game: Lions lost to the Dallas Cowboys, 20-19; Vikings lost to the Green Bay Packers, 33-10.
Last meeting: Dec. 24, 2023: Lions won, 30-24.
Key matchups
Lions CB Cam Sutton vs. Vikings WR Justin Jefferson: The Lions haven’t had it easy of late, going against some of the NFL’s top receivers. CeeDee Lamb torched them for 13 catches and 227 yards last week, and Jefferson went for six catches and 141 yards against the Lions on Christmas Eve.
The Lions used a variety of coverages on Jefferson in that game, and will again Sunday, though Sutton promises to factor heavy in the rotation as the Lions’ No. 1 cornerback. Whoever is in coverage, Campbell said the Lions have to be better about challenging Jefferson at the line of scrimmage.
“We’ve got to try to make some contact on a few things a little bit better,” he said. “I think we can be better on our own, and now, look, he’s a heck of a player and he’s going to make some plays. That’s just, that’s the nature of when you play somebody of his caliber, but I know we can be better.”
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Lions RT Penei Sewell vs. Vikings OLB Danielle Hunter: Hunter and Sewell will be NFC teammates at the Pro Bowl games next month, but first they’ve got one of the best game-within-the-game matchups Sunday.
Sewell is the top-ranked offensive tackle in football regardless of side, according to Pro Football Focus. He has allowed two sacks this season and has been consistently dominant as a run and pass blocker. Hunter has 15½ sacks, fifth most in the league.
Hunter played well in the first meeting, making seven tackles with one quarterback hit, but he didn’t get to Jared Goff for a sack. If Sewell and the rest of the Lions’ offensive line can keep it that way Sunday, the Lions should be in good shape to come away with a win.
Scouting report
Lions run offense vs. Vikings run defense
The Lions had four different 1,000-yard rushers in the first 22 seasons after Barry Sanders retired. They could have two this year as both David Montgomery (975 yards) and Jahmyr Gibbs (915 yards) are within striking distance of the mark.
Gibbs got the bulk of the work two weeks ago against the Vikings, outsnapping Montgomery 46-31 and piling up a combined 22 touches and targets to Montgomery’s 19. Both will factor heavily into the plan Sunday, and the Lions expect to have their starting offensive line together for the fourth straight game.
The Vikings rank ninth in the NFL against the run at 100.9 yards allowed per game, but they gave up 143 yards and three rushing touchdowns to the Lions on Christmas Eve. Jordan Hicks was all over the field in the first meeting, and Harrison Phillips has played well at nose tackle this year. Edge: Lions
Lions pass offense vs. Vikings pass defense
The Lions did a good job identifying Minnesota’s blitz packages two weeks ago, and that will be key again Sunday. The Vikings have the highest blitz rate in the NFL (49.8%), but they’re middle-of-the-pack in pressure percentage (21.9%) and Hunter is their only pass rusher who regularly wins one-on-ones.
Goff threw two interceptions last week and has 12 on the season, his most in three seasons as a Lion. But he played a mistake-free game against the Vikings last month, spreading the ball around to eight different receivers. Amon-Ra St. Brown (112 catches, 1,371 yards) is within striking distance of Herman Moore’s single-season team receptions record (123).
The Vikings could be without top cornerback Byron Murphy because of a knee injury, but safety Harrison Smith still is playing at a high level. Despite their exotic blitz packages, the Vikings are below average at taking the ball away; their 11 interceptions are tied for 19th in the league. Edge: Lions
Vikings run offense vs. Lions run defense
The Vikings have been one of the worst rushing teams in the NFL for two years running. They average just 91.5 yards per game on the ground, 27th in the league, and are averaging less than 4 yards per carry as a team.
Alexander Mattison played sparingly in the first Lions-Vikings game because of an ankle injury, but he’s Minnesota’s most complete back and needs 94 yards rushing to earn a $250,000 incentive Sunday. Ty Chandler is the change-of-pace back, and the Lions expect Minnesota to try a more conservative approach this week after starting quarterback Nick Mullens threw four interceptions in the first meeting.
The Lions have had one of the NFL’s best rush defenses all season. They allow 88.8 yards a game on the ground, but haven’t allowed more than 67 in a game to a running back (Austin Ekeler) this year. Tyson Alualu will see time at defensive tackle for the second straight week, and Alim McNeill will be back in the lineup after a four-game absence due to a sprained MCL. Edge: Lions
Vikings pass offense vs. Lions pass defense
Mullens is a bit of a wild card at quarterback. He’s not afraid to make any throw, into any coverage, but his aggressiveness has worked to his detriment, too. The Vikings benched him in favor of rookie Jaren Hall last week, then called on him to try and salvage their season after Hall’s rough first half.
Jefferson and rookie Jordan Addison give the Vikings one of the best receiving duos in the NFL. Jefferson is a playmaker who runs great routes, fights for contested catches and is dangerous downfield, and Addison has nine touchdowns among his 66 catches this season. Tight end TJ Hockenson, Minnesota’s leader with 95 catches, suffered a season-ending knee injury in the first Lions-Vikings game.
The Lions are vulnerable against the pass. They’ve allowed more than 300 yards in three of their five losses and have fallen behind early because of big plays in most of those games. C.J. Gardner-Johnson is expected to play Sunday as part of a three-man rotation at safety, and Aidan Hutchinson is coming off a three-sack performance. Edge: Vikings
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Special teams
The Lions converted their second fake punt of the season last week against the Cowboys and continue to have one of the most dangerous special teams units in the league. Jalen Reeves-Maybin was voted to the Pro Bowl as a coverage specialist, and Jack Fox has pinned opponents inside their 20-yard line on nearly 50% of his punts, according to Pro Football Reference. Michael Badgley is 3-for-3 on field goal attempts since taking over as kicker last month, but he had an extra point blocked by the Vikings.
The Vikings, like the Lions, are extremely aggressive on special teams. Chandler has converted two fake punts on runs as a personal protector and Kene Nwangwu has three career kick-return touchdowns. Greg Joseph has six missed field goals this season, including three from inside 50 yards, and Minnesota didn’t allow the Lions any returns on five kickoffs and two punts in their Week 16 meeting. Edge: Lions
Prediction
Slim as the chances are, both the Lions and Vikings have something to play for this week. The Lions can move up to the 2-seed in the NFC playoffs with a win over the Vikings and losses by the Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles, while Minnesota needs a victory and a trio of losses by other NFC playoff contenders to sneak into the postseason. Campbell said the Lions have extra motivation from last week’s heartbreaking loss to the Cowboys, and whether that’s incentive or not, they need a win to head into the postseason on a positive note. I don’t think that will be much of an issue playing at home, under their new "NFC North Division Champions" banner. Brian Flores’ defense can be tricky and Jefferson is the best receiver in the game, but the Vikings don’t have the offensive firepower to keep up while Mullens is at quarterback. Pick: Lions 30, Vikings 19.
Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him @davebirkett.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings: Scouting report, prediction
