Detroit Lions predictions: National pundits are backing Lions to reach NFC Championship

The Detroit Lions broke their 32-year playoff win drought last week after beating the Los Angeles Rams 24-23 at home in the wild-card round.

The Lions, no longer the bearers of the longest active playoff drought in sports, are now in the divisional round against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Lions are at home again in front of an ear-splitting Ford Field crowd, thanks to a loss by the No. 2 seed Dallas Cowboys in the first round, looking to win two playoff games in the same season for the first time in the Super Bowl era.

The Lions beat the Buccaneers in the first matchup between the teams in Week 6 of the regular season. Detroit’s defense was able to contain Tampa’s offense and quarterback Baker Mayfield, holding them to just six points and zero touchdowns. Offensively, the running game was held in check, in part due to injuries to Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, while Jared Goff threw for a season-high 353 yards and two touchdowns.

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The Buccaneers rallied to win five of the final six games of the season to win the NFC South with a 9-8 record. Tampa dominated the Philadelphia Eagles in the wild card round for a 32-9 win to book the trip to Detroit. Lions coaches and players are preparing for a “better” Bucs team in the second matchup after showing growth on both sides of the ball late in the year.

The Lions opened as a six-point favorite and that number has grown slightly to 6½ during the week, according to BetMGM. Here is a look at how some national reporters covering the NFL are predicting the game:

USA TODAY: Five writers like Lions

The five-writer panel for USA TODAY that gives predictions for NFL games is in lockstep this week, predicting a Lions victory and trip to the NFC championship. Three of the writers are predicting a double-digit Lions victory, while two are predicting a one-score margin in a close game.

Tyler Dragon, who predicted a 26-14 Lions win, wrote “Detroit was electric last week in its first home playoff game in 30 years. The Lions ended their playoff win drought. Now the Lions can play loose and focus on everything between the white lines. The Lions defeated the Bucs 20-6 in Week 6. That game wasn’t a fluke. Detroit is simply a better football team than Tampa Bay. Expect the Lions’ physicality to overwhelm the Bucs. Plus, the Detroit crowd will be rockin’ again.”

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ESPN: Lions

Stephen A. Smith, one of the co-hosts of ESPN's morning show "First Take," believes there is no way Mayfield and the Buccaneers will be able to take down the Lions in front of the frothing Ford Field crowd.

“(Detroit fans) were so hyped and can you imagine how they are 60 minutes away from a trip to the NFC Championship game?” Smith said. “That crowd, that environment is going to be bananas, ready, hyped and I think it is entirely too much to expect Baker Mayfield to overcome.”

Two writers for ESPN, Seth Walder and Eric Moody, both sided with the Lions when giving their picks for all divisional-round games this weekend. Moody predicted a 28-21 Lions win while Walder predicted a 34-17 Lions win. ESPN’s FPI analytics gives the Lions a 62.5% chance of winning, which is equal to 4.5 points according to their numbers.

CBS Sports: Split between Lions and Buccaneers

CBS Sports writer Pete Prisco predicted a 30-28 Buccaneers win when giving out his picks for the divisional round, while his colleague Tyler Sullivan predicted a 30-17 Lions victory.

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Explaining the Bucs pick, Prisco wrote, “Detroit played well on offense, but the defense showed some flaws. That could lead to another good day by Mayfield and his receivers. I think Jared Goff will also play well, especially if he can handle the Bucs blitz. Ben Johnson will have a plan for that. The Lions beat the Bucs earlier this season in Tampa, but it was close. This will also be close, but I think this time Tampa Bay gets payback and advances to the title game. Mayfield will keep it rolling. Upset.”

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NFL.com: 4-to-1 in favor of Lions

NFL.com had five editors give predictions for the divisional round, and four of them backed the Lions while one predicted a 23-22 Buccaneers win. Tom Blair, who predicted a 27-22 Lions win said the Lions offense should continue playing well while the defense could find a way to get pressure on Mayfield.

“Presuming the Lions can handle their business on offense, this comes down to Baker Mayfield's ability to keep up,” Blair wrote. “And while he could make things interesting against a defense that ranked 27th against the pass in the regular season, I think Detroit's knack for heating up opposing quarterbacks (they posted a pressure rate of 39.2 percent, seventh-best in the NFL, per NGS) could make the difference.”

The Athletic: NFL employees expect Lions win

The Athletic anonymously interviewed nine coaches and executives around the NFL to give their playoff picks, and eight of the anonymous people in the NFL predicted a Lions victory, while one chose Tampa.

“I went back and forth (with my pick),” an executive told The Athletic. “I ultimately picked Detroit because they’re the more complete team and have home-field advantage. I am curious to see how Goff plays this weekend because I do think Tampa can get pressure on him. And historically, when you can get hits on Goff, you can get him out of rhythm.”

Sporting News: Lions 27-24

Sporting News writer Vinnie Iyer predicts a close victory for the Lions and said their pass rush will be a key in the victory.

“The concern for Mayfield will Aidan Hutchinson and the Lions' pass rush, containing the big plays,” Iyer wrote. “His counterpart Jared Goff will feel a little more comfortable at home and also get more help from an efficient rushing attack.”

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: National pundits back Detroit Lions over Buccaneers in NFL playoffs