Despite GOP claims, NC’s growth isn’t about people fleeing blue states | Opinion
Liberals complain that Republican state lawmakers are making North Carolina less attractive with their 12-week abortion ban, deep tax cuts for corporations and neglect of public schools, but Republicans argue that their pro-business and conservative values approach is enhancing the state’s appeal.
For proof, they point to reports of blue states losing population as red states gain and declare that people are voting with their feet. It’s a favorite subject of the Wall Street Journal’s editorial page and a claim picked up by North Carolina Republicans.
In his opening speech for the 2023 legislative session, state Senate leader Phil Berger made the Republican claim clear: “Contrast what we’ve done with what is happening in those states our new residents are fleeing — high taxes, out-of-control government spending.”
Low taxes are appealing to businesses and retirees, but they’re usually not the main reason businesses or people pull up stakes and move to a new state. In claiming that their policies are driving population growth, Republicans are, as the saying goes, like roosters taking credit for the dawn.
People move to Sun Belt states because of a job transfer, or for warmer weather, less expensive housing and, more often than you might think, to be closer to their children and grandchildren.
Nathan T. Dollar, director of Carolina Demography at the University of North Carolina, is dubious about the notion that states are red or blue, let alone that one color is outcompeting the other for new residents.
“In general, I’m skeptical of the red-state/blue-state distinctions,” he said in an email. “In most states, we see generally red rural areas and more blue urban centers. These urban centers, regardless of state, are also the top destinations for domestic and foreign-born immigrants.”
Yet even when the color-coding of states is used, the blue state to red state pattern isn’t clear.
The 2021 American Community Survey conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau shows North Carolina as fourth nationally in the number of respondents who said they were living in another state or abroad a year ago. Dollar noted that of the 10 states that had the most newly located residents, seven voted for Democrat Joe Biden in 2020: California, New York, Georgia, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Colorado.
“There are certainly people who move from states with more Democratic control to states with more Republican control, but the data don’t support the claim that it’s a widespread phenomenon,” Dollar said.
For an up-close perspective on why people move to North Carolina, I called Paula Kovack, first vice president of the Charlotte Newcomers Club. She moved to the Charlotte area in 2004 from Bucks County near Philadelphia because of her job with Bank of America. She said a lot of her club’s 200 members came to the area through job transfers and “a lot of people are actually following their grandchildren.”
Kovack, who retired from Bank of America in 2015, said she at first regretted losing her proximity to New York theaters and other cultural attractions, but she and her husband came to appreciate the warmth of the people and a more moderate climate that still has changing seasons.
At Bank of America, Kovack said her office was full of native Southerners who were always telling her to slow down and often greeted her with a hug. “When I was working in Pennsylvania, no one hugged me in the morning,” she said.
Now she’s a Charlotte booster. “I would say to someone who’s thinking about making a move to the South, particularly to Charlotte, what’s there to think about?” she said. “It’s the best place on earth.”
It’s not a scientific survey, but the reason people are coming and staying in North Carolina may be more about hugs than taxes. To help the state not only grow but flourish, Republicans would do well to be less hostile toward taxes and more hospitable toward people.
Associate opinion editor Ned Barnett can be reached at 919-404-7853, or nbarnett@ newsobserver.com.
