Despite new COVID subvariant in Fresno region, doctors express ‘a little bit of optimism’

New infections of coronavirus have fallen for five straight weeks after surging for much of the spring and summer in Fresno County and the surrounding central San Joaquin Valley.

Through Friday, Fresno County reported 1,936 new laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the week ending Aug. 20. That amounts to a rate of fewer than 188 new cases per 100,000 population in the county, and it’s the first time since mid-June that fewer than 2,000 cases have cropped up in a single week.

Valleywide across Fresno, Kings, Madera, Mariposa, Merced and Tulare counties, a similar downward trend has emerged. The 3,700 cases reported this week across the six-county region is the lowest figure since the week ending June 18.

The falling case counts come as state health officials confirmed this week that a new subvariant of coronavirus, dubbed BA 2.75 or “centaurus,” has been detected in Fresno County. At the same time, sluggish vaccination rates against COVID-19 among local children remain a concern for local health leaders.

Dr. Rais Vorha, interim health officer with the Fresno County Department of Public Health, said Thursday that the county is still experiencing “pretty high numbers” of new cases compared to April, when weekly case numbers dipped to fewer than 300 for the week ending April 23.

“Still, I will say that overall, all of the regions of the state are showing a downward trend with COVID new cases and number of hospitalizations that we’re seeing,” Vohra added. “So there is a little bit of optimism on that front.”

Hospitalizations for COVID-19 patients requiring inpatient treatment are down compared to a few weeks ago, when patient volumes prompted local emergency officials to put in place an “assess and refer” policy for ambulance crews to deny transport to hospitals for patients who were not experiencing a true emergency. Those patients were instead to be referred to their family doctor, health clinics, urgent-care centers or to telehealth services offered through their insurance company.

The measure was intended to reduce the burden being faced by hospital emergency rooms. Patients with life- or limb-threatening emergencies could still be taken by ambulance to emergency departments.

As patient volumes have dipped recently, Vohra reported, the assess and refer limitations were lifted earlier this week. But, he added, “our hospitals remain really busy.” More than 200 patients were in hospitals with confirmed COVID-19 infections as of Thursday in Fresno County, and almost 290 across the six-county region.

A new variant looming?

Vohra said his department was told by the California Department of Public Health this week that the BA 2.75 or centaurus strain of coronavirus – a subvariant of the omicron variety that has dominated transmission figures since early this year – was detected in Fresno County through variant testing.

“The centaurus variant was first identified in India but has now been identified all over the world,” Vohra said. “It’s really shown itself to be quite contagious and pretty potent.” He added that the new strain has overtaken previous omicron subvariants such as BA 4 and BA 5 in some parts of the world, “but not necessarily here in the U.S.”

“In California, it’s still kind of a minor player,” Vohra said. “But … it’s definitely something that we’re tracking and keeping an eye on because we understand it could really continue to drive transmission if it ends up gaining a foothold here in the state.”

Vaccine rates among children

While this summer’s COVID-19 case surge appears to be relenting, “these are frankly very high numbers compared to where we could be if we got more folks vaccinated,” Vohra said, “and if people really took time to get themselves tested and stay isolated and safe whenever they’re considered higher risk.”

Almost 61% of vaccine-eligible Fresno County residents are considered fully vaccinated against COVID-19. But rates are far lower for young children and school-age kids.

It’s been about two months since the U.S. Food & Drug Administration and the Centers for Disease Control approved shots for children from as young as 6 months up to age 5. As of this week, however, only about 2.5% of that youngest age group have received even one dose of vaccine.

“This is really an area where we have a lot of room for improvement, especially in our under-5-years age group,” Vohra said. “We really need to get more kids vaccinated in day cares and preschools, that population, and then really on up through elementary all the way to high school and college.”

Only about one-third of the population under the age of 18 in Fresno County has received at least one shot.

Since the first local cases of COVID-19 were identified in the central San Joaquin Valley about 2 1/2 years ago, more than 561,000 of the region’s residents have contracted the virus at some point, including more than 268,000 in Fresno County.

To date, the death toll from the virus and its respiratory disease is at least 6,062, including at least 2,822 lives lost in Fresno County.

See the interactive charts below for details on COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, deaths and vaccination rates.