Democrats need 10 GOP senators to pass same-sex marriage bill. Does it stand a chance?
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer promised a vote on same-sex marriage in “the coming weeks,” but it’s unknown whether he will have enough votes.
This effort comes on the heels of the Respect for Marriage Act, passed this summer in the House, and growing concern that the Supreme Court, as alluded to by Justice Clarence Thomas in a recent concurring opinion ,might overturn Obergefell v. Hodges, the 2015 decision that guaranteed the right for same-sex marriage.
But, in order to pass in the Senate, the bill would need support from 10 GOP senators to “overcome a filibuster,” which could delay or block a vote, the Associated Press reported. Despite 71 percent of Americans favoring legal same-sex marriage, the highest number ever recorded, according to a June Gallup poll, it’s not clear how many Republicans would support it.
Many may wait until the last minute to decide, according to Politico. Still, recent comments from several GOP senators shed some light on how the vote may go down.
Eight senators have indicated that they would vote no on a gay marriage bill. The eight include Josh Hawley of Missouri, Marco Rubio of Florida, Ted Cruz of Texas and Lindsay Graham of South Carolina, according to CNN.
Three GOP senators have signaled they would vote in favor of the bill, including Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Rob Portman of Ohio, who is not seeking reelection, CNN reported. Collins, a co-sponsor of the legislation, is working with Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, the first openly gay politician elected to the U.S. Senate, to wrangle the necessary GOP votes.
Meanwhile, Thom Tillis of North Carolina, in addition to Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, whose odds of reelection are a “toss-up,” according to FiveThirtyEight, telegraphed at least tepid support for the bill, according to CNN.
If all five GOP senators vote yes, that leaves five more votes outstanding.
Baldwin and Collins are working on an amendment that would provide “more clarity that the legislation would not take away any religious liberty or conscience protections,” according to Axios, a move that might assuage concerns for some Republicans, potentially pushing the bill over the finish line.
In interviews on Sept. 8, Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia, Roy Blunt of Missouri, Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, who is also not running for reelection, and seven-term Sen. Chuck Grassley of Iowa said they had no updates on their decisions, according to Politico.
Sen. Mitt Romney, who has occasionally broken ranks with Republicans, including in his vote to convict former President Donald Trump on the charge of abuse of power in 2020, remains undecided, but told Axios he’s “looking at protections for religion.”
“Marriage equality is something that voters overwhelmingly support,” Democratic strategist DJ Koessler told McClatchy News. “Poll after poll shows this. With this being a bipartisan bill, there has been hope that it would unify the Senate. Unfortunately many Republican senators are beholden to the MAGA wing of the party.”
Many Senate Republicans support same-sex marriage in principle but are frustrated by what they say is a political maneuver by Democrats, according to Axios.
Sen. John Cornyn of Texas told Vox that the legislation is “completely unnecessary,” adding, “The Supreme Court has held that the Constitution protects same-sex marriage. It’s under no threat of being reversed or overruled so this is all part of our Democratic colleagues’ attack on the Supreme Court, which has had dangerous consequences.”
Though the bill’s prospects are uncertain, there are some tailwinds in the Democrats’ favor, including an open letter released Sept. 12 that supports the bill and was signed by over 400 GOP officials, including Mehmet Oz, who is running for US Senate in Pennsylvania, and Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker.
The letter was spearheaded by Ken Mehlman, who oversaw George Bush’s 2004 reelection campaign.
The large contingent of GOP support draws a stark contrast to the way the Bush campaign, on the advice of Karl Rove, tapped into voter opposition to gay marriage in 2004, and underlines the substantial shift in public opinion regarding same-sex marriage over the past 20 years.
The bill is expected to be voted on the week of Sept. 19.
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