A Democratic power broker makes its move in a big Senate race. Is it too late?

For months, Democratic Rep. David Trone has blanketed Maryland’s airwaves in ads for his Senate campaign. Now, with the primary drawing to a close, Trone faces some pushback in a new ad campaign from a group backing his primary rival, Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks.

The question for Alsobrooks is whether the new effort will make a difference.

Women Vote!, a super PAC tied to EMILY’s List, which supports female Democrats who back abortion rights, launched an attack against Trone over the weekend, just 10 days before the state’s primary on Tuesday. It’s the first outside group to engage on Alsobrooks’ behalf on the airwaves, as she has been swamped by the massive spending advantage Trone has built using his vast personal fortune.

While Alsobrooks’ allies welcomed the help, some lamented that it didn’t come earlier. Trone’s seemingly bottomless wallet, donors’ prioritizing expensive battlegrounds over blue-state primaries, general fatigue among big political contributors and the prospect of a pricey general election in November in Maryland are just a few possible reasons other pro-Alsobrooks groups didn’t spend in the race until now.

“I think it’s unfortunate she hasn’t gotten more,” said Rep. Steny Hoyer, D-Md., the former House majority leader, who has backed Alsobrooks. “I think she’s the strongest candidate we have.”

Stefanie Brown James, a co-founder and the executive director of the Collective PAC, which backs Black candidates and supports Alsobrooks, said: “It definitely was not ideal for it to take so long for the resources to come in to get up on the air. But now that that has happened, I think it will make a tremendous difference.”

On the airwaves

EMILY’s List decided to spend for Alsobrooks almost a full year after it first announced it was putting its “full weight” behind her.

The group has put out statements criticizing Trone and feted Alsobrooks at high-profile EMILY’s List events, which can be helpful for candidates looking to raise money. The group also supported Alsobrooks with staffing, fundraising, candidate guidance and expertise in research and polling, said an EMILY’s List source who was granted anonymity to discuss internal efforts.

But its affiliated super PAC didn’t spend a dime in the race until less than two weeks before the primary.

Last weekend, Women Vote! launched a $2 million ad buy that emphasized an attack Alsobrooks has used to criticize Trone — linking donations from him and his company to Republicans like Texas Gov. Greg Abbott. Trone has defended the donations as a way to protect employees as the company does business in red states.

“David Trone and his companies gave half a million dollars to extreme and MAGA Republicans to win their elections,” a narrator says in the new ad. “David Trone cares more about his bottom line than our rights.”

Alsobrooks told NBC News at a rally Saturday with EMILY’s List founder Ellen Malcolm that “it has meant everything” to have the group’s backing and emphasized that “we do need financial resources to make sure we’re able to continue to communicate in this race.”

Trone’s campaign responded to the ad by highlighting his “unblemished record on reproductive rights.” Trone spokesperson Onotse Omoyeni claimed in a statement that a “conservative donor is using this super PAC to meddle in our Democratic primary,” citing a $500,000 donation to the EMILY’s List-aligned super PAC from a donor who has given significant amounts to Republicans as well as Democrats and anti-Trump Republican groups.

The Trone campaign is running its own response ad, claiming Alsobrooks was responsible for the group’s advertising and criticizing her for taking money from lobbyists.

Is it too late?

It remains to be seen whether the spending will be enough to help Alsobrooks leapfrog Trone in Tuesday’s primary.

Former Democratic Rep. Donna Edwards, an NBC News contributor who lost her party’s last competitive Senate primary in Maryland in 2016, said that while it’s possible that the money could move the needle, spending at the “eleventh hour” with absentee ballots having already been sent out could have limited impact.

“It feels a little bit late to change hearts and minds, and the tenor of the buy, in terms of how negative it is — it’s going so hard against a candidate who has a 100% abortion-rights record — seems to me to not be the most effective argument,” she said.

In 2016, Edwards lost the primary to then-Rep. Chris Van Hollen, despite help from EMILY’s List. Women Vote! was a consistent presence on the airwaves for her, spending almost $3 million starting in late 2015.

Another group — Working for US PAC, which was funded primarily by EMILY’s List and one of its top donors — spent $1.7 million more backing her in ads and various get-out-the-vote programs. The spending helped narrow the gap between Edwards and Van Hollen, who significantly outraised her.

But while Edwards was outraised, the gap between Alsobrooks and Trone is significantly wider. Trone has lent his campaign more than $57 million (including more than $3 million in the final weeks of the primary) and outspent her by more than 9-to-1.

That kind of cash, one of the largest congressional self-funding efforts in history, could have scared off Alsobrooks supporters daunted by a seemingly unlimited supply of cash from her top opponent.

“The expectation that this man has spent that amount of his personal wealth — groups would have been able to match that,” said Glynda Carr of Higher Heights, a group that supports Black woman candidates and has endorsed Alsobrooks.

“You don’t need to match him,” countered a Democratic strategist, who noted that even some spending from outside groups earlier in the race could have helped boost Alsobrooks’ name recognition in key areas outside her home base in the Washington suburbs, like Baltimore.

In a year when Democrats are staring down expensive races across the country to defend their Senate majority, it can be difficult to engage donors in a primary race, particularly in a blue state. But Democrats may not be able to take Maryland for granted this fall if former Gov. Larry Hogan wins the GOP primary, giving Republicans a top recruit who has already been elected statewide.

Brown James of Collective PAC, which raised money for Alsobrooks, suggested Hogan’s candidacy could have deterred donors from engaging in the primary, because they will most likely have to direct resources to a general election fight in Maryland, as well.

She also said fundraising across the board has been slow with donors who are generally fatigued and are eyeing other priorities.

But both Brown James and Carr said money isn’t everything, pointing to Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass’ victory in 2022 against a wealthy candidate who swamped her on the airwaves.

They also noted that Black women, especially those running for statewide office, have historically struggled with fundraising, but Alsobrooks has pulled in strong numbers. She had raised $7.8 million as of April 24.

Carr said Alsobrooks has cleared some traditional obstacles for Black female candidates in fundraising and nabbing early, high-profile endorsements. But Trone’s vast wealth has presented yet another hurdle.

“The question here is: If all things were equal from a money perspective, what would this race look like?” Carr said.