Defying gravity

Daniel Desrochers

A little more than a week before the election, The New York Times put out a poll that projected Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids would win reelection by 14 percentage points.

It didn’t make very much sense.

Davids won by 10 percentage points against Adkins in 2020. That was before the district had been redrawn to make the race more competitive. Before record inflation and high gas prices. Back when then candidate Joe Biden still had a positive approval rating. The idea that she would be able to expand on her 2020 margin seemed far-fetched at best.

Democratic strategists put out statements warning not to take the poll seriously; they didn’t want their voters to believe the election would be a cakewalk. The New York Times even wrote an article pointing out the flaws in their poll, casting doubt that it would come close.

Then Davids won by 12 percentage points.

There could be many reasons for the margin.

A big one is abortion rights. Not only were Democrats motivated to vote after the U.S. Supreme Court eliminated the constitutional right to an abortion, Davids’ campaign was able to hone its voter turnout infrastructure during the primary as it helped the campaign to vote against a ballot measure that would have eliminated the right to an abortion from the Kansas constitution.

With that vote came a lot of newly registered voters who were clearly passionate about abortion rights — an issue Davids made a centerpiece of her campaign.

Along with abortion, the Davids campaign had somewhat of a response on Republicans’ messaging about the economy. By emphasizing her Republican opponent Amanda Adkins’ ties to former Gov. Sam Brownback, Davids was able to stoke any lingering distrust voters felt about how Brownback handled the economy as governor with his controversial tax experiment.

But in the final lead-up to election day, it still seemed like there was one message that was louder than all the rest — Republicans were going to win big. The polls seemed to show it, Democratic strategists were talking about it national television. Some even already seemed to be doing an autopsy about how the Democratic messaging failed.

While Democrats may have truly believed these elections would be close, raising the alarm about a potential Republican wave also served as a get-out-the-vote strategy.

Along with setting expectations for the results (the Democrats are still likely to lose the House, but the election is being treated as a “win” because they didn’t lose by a huge margin), fear is one of the biggest motivators for voters. It’s why you often see those ominous attack ads and why candidates portray the worst case scenario on a number of issues that rile up their base.

If the Democratic base is afraid that their opponents are going to win overwhelming control of the legislative branch of government, they’re more likely to be motivated to go out and vote to prove the projection wrong.

More from Missouri

On Tuesday, Missouri voted to become one of 21 states that allow the legal purchase of marijuana. With the vote come a number of questions about when people can start purchasing marijuana products, how it will affect existing penalties and more.

Here are headlines from across the state:

And across Kansas

Johnson County used to be known as an influential Republican stronghold. Former President Donald Trump narrowly won the county as recently as 2016. But over the past three elections, the county has shifted into becoming Democratic. Rep. Sharice Davids has increased her margin in the county in each of her three elections. Gov. Laura Kelly increased her margin by 3 percentage points between 2018 and 2022. It now looks like a Democratic stronghold.

The latest from Kansas City

In Kansas City …

Have a news tip? Send it along to ddesrochers@kcstar.com

Odds and ends

Here come the big bois

The Republicans and Democrats in the U.S. Senate just got new centers for their pickup basketball games.

On Tuesday, the 6’6” Republican Eric Schmitt won his bid for U.S. Senate in Missouri. While he’s probably often the tallest person in any room he walks into, that won’t be the case on Capitol Hill, where the 6’8” Democrat John Fetterman will be able to make that claim after his election in Pennsylvania.

Fetterman may be the tallest elected senator in modern U.S. history, but he won’t be the tallest senator of all time— the 6’9” former Republican Sen. Luther Strange, from Alabama, served an appointed term before the election of former Democratic Sen. Doug Jones.

There is actually some data to back up the notion that height helps in politics. Of the presidential candidates since 1900, the winner is on average 1 inch taller than their opponent. Around 67% have been taller than their opponent, 29% have been shorter and, in the 2008 race, both Barack Obama and Mitt Romney were the same height.

Current President Joe Biden, who is 5’11.5” is among the minority of presidential candidates who beat a taller opponent. Former president Donald Trump is 6’3”

Both Schmitt and Fetterman will tower over the respective leaders of their party — Google says both Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell are 5’9”, which doesn’t feel quite right because that’s my height and McConnell seems a little shorter than me and Schumer a little taller.

Either way, as a member of the Lollipop Guild, I’ll welcome them to the U.S. Capitol with the knowledge that I don’t have to duck when entering staircases in the basement.

Hawley on the failed GOP wave

Republicans expected big wins in the midterms and when the presumed red wave turned into a trickle, Washington politicos were ready to point fingers. Some directed their blame at former President Donald Trump, saying he backed candidates who didn’t have a shot at winning general elections. Others pointed the finger at the party’s campaign finance machine, saying it didn’t do enough to help get Republican voters to turn out.

Sen. Josh Hawley, a Republican from Missouri, instead pointed his finger at his party’s policy positions, saying they weren’t doing enough to help working people.

“Washington Republicanism lost big Tuesday night. When your ‘agenda’ is cave to Big Pharma on insulin, cave to Schumer on gun control & Green New Deal (“infrastructure”), and tease changes to Social Security and Medicare, you lose,” Hawley wrote on Twitter.

Hawley counts himself among the faction of the Republican Party that wants to reject the traditional model that has been around since the Reagan era and embrace a more populist agenda, one that matches the non-college educated working class voters that have gravitated towards conservatives since the election of former President Donald Trump.

His argument basically implies that Republicans should have supported Democrats on a bill that would have capped the price of insulin (Hawley was one of seven Republican senators who voted for the provision), but not on other popular bills they voted for. Sen. Roy Blunt, Hawley’s seat mate who is retiring at the end of the year, voted for both the infrastructure law and the law intended to curb gun violence.

Hawley has also criticized a plan that has been tossed around by some House Republicans that would use the threat of the government defaulting on its debt as a negotiating tool to make changes to Social Security and Medicare.

He said the party should place tougher tariffs on China, bring back jobs to America from overseas, increase domestic energy production and hire more police officers — a message that would appeal to many Americans who once made a good living on jobs that were left behind in the technological revolution of the 21st century, when America’s transitioned from a manufacturing-dominated economy.

Pompeo’s presidential hopes

As Republicans squabble over the reason they failed to meet their election expectations on Tuesday, they have an eye on who will be the party’s nominee in 2024.

Former President Donald Trump has made it clear he wants to run for reelection — he appears set to announce his campaign on November 15th. But as candidates he endorsed struggled this year and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis glided to an easy reelection, some in the party have grumbled that he might not be the right candidate and are urging the party to move on.

Any discontent surrounding Trump potentially opens the door for other candidates. Among them, is former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who has made it pretty clear he’s mulling a presidential run in 2024.

On Wednesday, Pompeo, a former Wichita congressman, was again acting like someone with his eye on the presidency. He Tweeted out images of winning candidates he endorsed, painting a contrast as Trump was being criticized for his own endorsements.

That said, Republicans have complained about Trump frequently over the past six years. It rarely results in the former president losing his influence over the party.

Happy Friday

Here’s an interesting look at an ongoing case at the U.S. Supreme Court about the Indian Child Welfare Act. Celebrate the end of election season with a champagne cocktail. Listen to this very earnest song Kelly’s administration made to lure Panasonic to Kansas that Katie Bernard found in an open records request.

Enjoy your weekend.

Daniel Desrochers is the Star’s Washington, D.C. Correspondent
Daniel Desrochers is the Star’s Washington, D.C. Correspondent

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