The Daily Sweat: Orioles still great value, even after making bettors a lot of money
No Major League Baseball team has won more money for bettors this season than the Baltimore Orioles. And it's not even close.
According to Covers.com, if a bettor had put $100 on the Orioles moneyline in every game, they'd be up $2,726. Only two other teams are up $1,000 in the same exercise: the Washington Nationals at $1,638 and Cincinnati Reds at $1,491.
It's mid-August. The Orioles are 74-45. We should be far beyond wondering if a team that is 29 games over .500 and has the second-best record in the majors (only the Atlanta Braves are better) is for real. Yet the odds still haven't caught up to Baltimore.
The Orioles were underdogs Monday to the horribly disappointing San Diego Padres, and they won 4-1. They're +115 underdogs at BetMGM on Monday to the same Padres team that is showing no signs of turning anything around. Before the Padres series, the Orioles were underdogs in all three games against the Seattle Mariners, and Baltimore took two of three from Seattle.
Why the disrespect for the Orioles about three-quarters of the way through an incredible season?
One reason could be the run differential. Baltimore's run differential is not bad at +68, but the Orioles are still eight wins above expectation, according to Baseball Reference's pythagorean win-loss record. That means some regression could be coming.
Starting pitching is another reason. Starters influence baseball odds, and the Orioles don't have any big-name starters. Their team ERA of 4.07 ranks 14th in MLB.
But mostly it seems based on everyone's perception of the Orioles before the season started. It has been a long time since Baltimore has been good. They weren't expected to compete for an AL East title this season. A young lineup has come along quickly, but it's still hard to believe the Orioles are legit, even this deep into the season.
That's OK for bettors. Those who have caught on to the Orioles this season have done very well. Maybe they'll continue to be underdogs all the way to an AL East title.
Here's the first look at the sports betting slate for Tuesday:
Rest of the MLB schedule
The Atlanta Braves get to face Luis Severino on Tuesday. This could get ugly. Severino has been bad for the New York Yankees this season. He has a 6.64 ERA, which is far off his career numbers. Hitters have been teeing off on Severino, and now he faces a Braves offense that leads MLB in runs scored. The Braves are -210 favorites.
One of the better games on the schedule comes in Toronto. The Philadelphia Phillies and Toronto Blue Jays would both be playoff teams if the season ended today. The Phillies, with Zack Wheeler on the mound, are slight -115 favorites for Tuesday's game.
Best of the rest
We have a Women's World Cup semifinal at 6 a.m. ET Wednesday between Australia and England. England is a +130 favorite on the three-way line. Spain already advanced to the final with a win over Sweden.
There's one WNBA game on Tuesday. The Las Vegas Aces are 7.5-point favorites against the New York Liberty.
What's the best bet?
Of course we'll have a bet on the Orioles again Tuesday. But I'll go with over 10.5 runs in the Yankees-Braves game. Atlanta put up 11 runs Monday and faces Luis Severino on Tuesday. Braves starter Bryce Elder has been struggling, too. There should be plenty of offense.
