The Daily Sweat: Chiefs favored by more than a TD over the Raiders

The good news for the Kansas City Chiefs is they won't be looking ahead to next week. Probably not, anyway.

In another scenario, they could. The Chiefs get the Buffalo Bills next week in perhaps the biggest game of the NFL regular season. Don't listen to teams when they say they take it "one game at a time." They all understand things like the Bills being next on the schedule.

But this week the Chiefs play the Las Vegas Raiders. That's a division foe, and it's on a Monday night. That's enough to keep them focused. The Chiefs are a 7.5-point favorite at BetMGM.

Last season, the Raiders got together on the Chiefs' logo at midfield before the game, which made the Chiefs angry. They blasted the Raiders, 48-9. Last week Mahomes made sure to remind his teammates the Raiders were up next.

You might not think professionals would care much about a midfield logo, but motivation comes in many forms.

Mahomes has played exceptionally well against the Raiders in his career, which is a big reason the point spread has moved to more than a touchdown. It's also fair to wonder if the line is too high.

The Chiefs had a stretch that spanned the 2020 and 2021 seasons in which they struggled to cover the spread. That's mostly because the spreads were bumped up because bettors loved taking the high-scoring Chiefs. It's still true that if you bet the Chiefs most week, you're paying a bit of a tax.

I'll take the Raiders and the points, not because the Chiefs are looking ahead necessarily but because the line just seems too high. The Raiders are 1-3 but the three losses came by a combined 13 points. They're not a terrible team. I think they can keep it within a touchdown.

Then we can start looking forward to Chiefs-Bills next week.

Here's the first look at the sports betting slate for Monday:

Any props for Monday night?

Clyde Edwards-Helaire is coming off a 92-yard game on the ground, but that came in a blowout in which he had 19 carries. In the first three games he had 22 carries combined. The Chiefs are spreading around carries and CEH's total of 49.5 rushing yards seems a little high.

I'll also go under on Darren Waller's 50.5 yards. Waller has 46 yards combined the past two games and now will compete with Hunter Renfrow, who should return from a concussion, for targets. It could be another relatively quiet night for the Raiders tight end.

Not much other than NFL

October is a good month for sports, with basketball and hockey overlapping the end of baseball. But MLB is taking a day off before the ALDS and NLDS start Tuesday, and the NHL doesn't have it's first regular-season games on North American soil until Tuesday. That leaves us with the NFL game, NBA preseason and one English Premier League match (Nottingham Forest vs. Aston Villa, with Aston Villa as a +100 favorite on the three-way line). The schedule will start to fill out starting on Tuesday.

What's the best bet?

Not much to choose from so we'll ride with the Raiders, though it's a little scary given how the Chiefs can blow out anyone if they're playing their best. Still, 7.5 points is a lot.