From the Cybertruck scaleup to EV price wars, here's what 2024 could bring for Tesla, Elon Musk

From recalls to new products, Austin-based Tesla and its eccentric billionaire CEO, Elon Musk, keep making headlines, a trend that's unlikely to slow down moving into next year.

For Tesla, 2024 will follow a busy several years that have included building out its Austin manufacturing facility, relocating its headquarters to that site, and delivering the first Cybertrucks.

Dan Ives, an industry analyst with Wedbush Securities who follows Tesla, said 2024 will be “one of the most important years” for the company, as it looks to scale production and watch its margins. He expects Austin, which has continued its build out in recent years, will play a key role.

“There's a lot of moving parts right now,” Ives said.

Here are some you may want to keep an eye out for looking into next year:

Cybertruck production to scale up

Tesla is expected to scale production of its long-awaited Cybertruck next year, after the first few trucks were delivered in November. It remains to be seen how many people will want to purchase the vehicle, which has drawn mixed opinions since it was first unveiled in 2019.

Musk has already repeatedly warned the scale up of the Austin-made vehicle could be challenging. The company has not said how many Cybertrucks it will make in 2024, but has said its two pricier models will be available for deliveries next year, followed by its rear-wheel-drive model in 2025.

Where does the electric vehicle market stand?

Competition in the electric vehicle market has heated up in recent years, and Tesla has been slashing prices in part to keep competitive. Demand for electric vehicles has continued to rise, though at a slower pace than some initially predicted, leading some legacy automakers such as General Motors and Honda to scale back plans in the near term.

For Tesla, Ives predicted price cuts are in the “rear view mirror” but acknowledged demand has softened.

Tesla's autopilot and self-driving troubles could remain

Any Tesla produced after 2014 has some level of enhanced driver assistance technology, but the company also offers an "autopilot" software as well as “full self-driving” software for purchase. Despite the names, full self-driving and autopilot are not considered to be truly autonomous by industry experts or by the company itself. Drivers using the features are required to actively supervise and keep their hands on the wheel.

But this month, nearly all Tesla vehicles were impacted by a recall related to Tesla's autopilot software after a probe by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration found that Tesla autopilot controls "may not be sufficient to prevent driver misuse." Earlier this year, Tesla also recalled its "full self-driving" software after vehicles were performing unsafe acts such as rolling stop signs. In both instances, the recall was remedied through an over air software update.

Ives said fixing issues related to autopilot and self-driving software is the “elephant in the room” for the company going into next year.

Will Tesla still qualify for electric vehicle tax credits?

As Tesla cut prices on a number of its most popular vehicles in recent years, many buyers were able to qualify for a $7,500 federal tax credit on their purchase under the Inflation Reduction Act.

But fewer vehicles are expected to qualify, starting in 2024 as stricter rules kick in that are designed to disqualify vehicles that contain components made in China or by a Chinese government-controlled firm. Tesla’s Model 3 is not expected to qualify starting January 1.

Other EV makers to use Tesla charger network, plug style

This year, a growing number of automakers have announced plans to switch to a Tesla-style charging port known as the North American Charging System, or NACS, and partner with Tesla to use the company’s expansive charging network starting as early as next year. The moves could help potentially set up Tesla's infrastructure to be the standard in the United States.

Companies that will adopt the charging standard in 2024 include Hyundai, Kia and Mercedes-Benz. Companies that are expected to do the same in 2025 include Genesis, General Motors, Ford, Honda, Nissan, Polestar/Volvo, Jaguar, BMW, Subara, Toyota, Rivian and Lucid.

Giga Mexico may scale up

The company first confirmed it would build its fifth manufacturing facility in Mexico earlier this year during Tesla Investor Day. The new facility is expected to complement other gigafactories, including Austin. But on an October call with investors, Musk tempered expectations for the facility, and it's unclear how long it could be before the facility is up and running.

“In Mexico, we're laying the groundwork to begin construction and doing all the long lead items, but I think we want to just get a sense for what the global economy is like, before we go full tilt on the Mexico factory,” Musk said.

Musk's other ventures in Austin

In recent years, Elon Musk has moved or expanded a number of his entities into Central Texas besides Tesla. This includes The Boring Company which is headquartered in the Austin-area, and recently was joined by a convenience store, the Boring Bodega. Neuralink and SpaceX also both have significant presences in the region.

Musk's newest expansion move in the region could include opening schools and eventually a university in Austin focused on science, technology, engineering and math (STEM) subjects. It's unclear if or when the school would open, but tax filings show it would start with about 50 students with plans to scale over time.

This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: Tesla in 2024 will have 'moving pieces' from the Cybertruck to EV pricing