Florida Democrats choose Crist to challenge and beat DeSantis. Can he?

Congressman and former Florida Gov. Charlie Crist cruised to a Democratic primary victory over Commissioner of Agriculture Nikki Fried on Tuesday and now faces incumbent Gov. Ron DeSantis in the general election on Nov. 8.

With nearly 1.5 million votes counted statewide at 10:30 p.m., Crist was receiving about 60% of the vote to about 35% for Fried, who was the only Democrat elected to statewide office four years ago. Those statewide margins were similar to the margins in results from Miami-Dade and Broward counties, where Fried was perceived to have had an advantage.

The Associated Press projected Crist as the winner at 8 p.m., as soon as polls closed in the Florida Panhandle.

The early win, however decisive, now places him as the underdog in a nationally watched race where DeSantis not only holds a massive fundraising advantage — with $130 million and counting — but has led the Florida GOP as it has surpassed Democrats in statewide voter registration. And in Miami-Dade County, crucial to former President Donald Trump’s Florida victory in 2020, Democrats have lost ground among Hispanic voters.

Wasting no time to make his case, DeSantis teased Tuesday evening in Hialeah that he would campaign to get the “biggest Republican turnout this state has ever seen.”

In electing Crist, Democratic voters favored an experienced candidate that pitched himself to voters as the strongest chance their party has to defeat DeSantis, an incumbent he has painted as power-hungry and extremist. On Tuesday night, Crist was quick to turn the attention on DeSantis’ presidential ambitions.

“This guy wants to be president of the United States of America and everybody knows it. However, when we defeat him on Nov. 8, that show is over,” Crist said during his acceptance speech in St. Petersburg. “I no longer recognize the leaders of the Republican Party. They’re extremists. They want to turn back the clock on our freedom. They’re trying to undermine our democracy in ways no one could have ever imagined. That stops here. That stops now.”

This is Crist’s third attempt to win the governor’s office. He was successful in 2006, as a Republican, and served one term, 2007-2011. But he didn’t seek reelection and instead ran for the U.S. Senate, losing to U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio in the Republican primary. Crist left the party and continued his bid for the Senate, losing again to Rubio in a three-way race that included Democrat Kendrick Meek.

After endorsing Barack Obama for president, Crist joined the Democratic Party and ran for governor again in 2014 against Rick Scott, losing by about a 1% margin.

Fried, speaking to her supporters Tuesday night in Fort Lauderdale, said she would support Crist but also wasn’t ready to close the door on her political career.

“Anybody who has supported me and voted for me in the primary must come out,” she said, looking ahead to November. “Our lives literally depend on defeating Ron DeSantis ... the greatest threat to democracy in the United States.”

Pivoting to the general election

Following a bitter primary that featured personal attacks from his opponent, Crist must now prove he can run a competitive race that many Democrats fear can’t be won.

“He’s going to have to campaign a little bit outside of his comfort zone and be aggressive, be unconventional,” said Fernand Amandi, a Miami-based Democratic pollster. Amandi added Crist would have to “tap into the fear and anxiety that many Florida voters have” against what he called “DeSantis’ encroaching fascism.”

Amandi also said Crist would have to continue making reproductive freedom a cornerstone of his campaign at a time when the overturning of the Roe v. Wade Supreme Court decision has been top of mind for voters across the country. Crist has been criticized for trying to appeal to both sides of that polarizing issue.

DeSantis, who championed the 15-week abortion ban law that was passed in Florida earlier this year, has been careful to openly embrace measures that other states have taken to make abortion more restrictive in Florida.

“DeSantis wants this election to be about parental choice and education, which if it is, it will probably result in his reelection,” said Amandi. “If it’s about reproductive freedom and DeSantis’ MAGA extremism, DeSantis could be in trouble and Charlie’s choice [for a lieutenant governor running mate] should reflect that.”

Earlier Tuesday, DeSantis was asked about his position on additional restrictions on abortion, and said he would be open to working with the Legislature on “future endeavors.”

“We want to make sure that what we’ve done will stick and then work with the Legislature. But I will tell you, though, that 15 was very difficult to be able to achieve. We were happy that we were able to achieve it. And so we look forward and we welcome future endeavors. But this is, we realize, there’s still going to be a fight on the legal end,” DeSantis told reporters.

Running mate a crucial decision

Andrea Mercado, executive director of the progressive coalition Florida Rising, said she believes it’s important for Crist — a longtime politician that more progressive voters might view with skepticism — to energize Democrats’ base.

“We’re all hoping that they will choose a lieutenant governor that will energize the multi-racial base of the Democratic Party and be present in communities that often times feel left behind by politics as usual,” Mercado said.

Meanwhile, also on Tuesday night, DeSantis countered the attention on the primary with a rally in the heart of the Cuban community in Miami-Dade County, Hialeah, featuring South Florida Republican headliners like Rubio and U.S. Rep. Mario Díaz-Balart.

DeSantis, political observers argue, is not just seeking to defeat Crist in November: He’s seeking to establish himself as the governor who turned Florida red and consolidated enough power to influence partisan and nonpartisan races alike across the state.

David Custin, a political consultant who works with Florida Republicans, said DeSantis’ race was unlikely to be as competitive as Democrats make it sound.

“They’re going to be lambs to the slaughter,” Custin said.

Tampa Bay Times staff writer Kirby Wilson contributed from St. Petersburg, and Miami Herald staff writer Omar Rodriguez Ortiz contributed from Hialeah.