Could we get a White Christmas in the Triangle this year? Experts weigh in.

A quick glance at your phone’s weather app over the past couple of days may have some people in the Triangle, as the classic song goes, “dreaming of a white Christmas.”

We’re a little less than two weeks from Christmas, and snowflakes — albeit with relatively low chances — are starting to pop up on some long-range forecasts.

But are those forecasts accurate? Is there reasonable hope for a white Christmas in the Triangle this year?

To attempt to answer those questions and more, we consulted Corey Davis, an assistant state climatologist with the North Carolina State Climate Office, plus some information posted online by local meteorologists.

Here’s what we learned.

What are the chances it will snow in the Triangle on Christmas?

Looking at long-range forecasts for Raleigh on the weather app of your choice — let’s say the Weather Channel, for instance — on Tuesday, you may see snowflake icons on or around Christmas Day, probably hovering around the mark of a 30% chance.

This far out from Christmas, though, the models aren’t entirely reliable or accurate: “most of our major weather forecast models can offer reliable forecasts for about the next seven days, so we’re just outside that window of skillful guidance at the moment,” Davis told The News & Observer.

In an online post Monday, ABC11 chief meteorologist Don “Big Weather” Schwenneker offered this analogy, comparing long-range forecasts to golf: “When you first hit the ball, you’re just trying to get it in the fairway. Then as you get closer to the green, you’re narrowing the ball’s target down to a tiny hole.

“Same with long-range forecasting,” Schwenneker wrote. “When we look seven days out, we are just looking to see if it’s clear, or if it’s going to rain/snow by day 7. Then as we get closer, we narrow it down to what type of precipitation we’ll see, and where it will hit.”

But, Davis said, those curious about the long-range forecast “can still look at the overall patterns they’re showing since that can offer some clues about which direction things may be leaning by that time in the month.”

Weather models show cold air is coming

Two major weather models, the American and European models, are both “showing a much colder air mass diving southward out of Canada by late next week,” Davis said.

“While the coldest air will probably remain off to our northwest, it looks like the fringes of that cold air could reach North Carolina a few days before Christmas,” Davis said.

“The bigger question mark is about our precipitation chances, and it’s still a bit too early to tell whether any moisture might accompany that cooler air, and whether it would even be cold enough to support frozen precipitation.”

And even if snow is questionable, Davis said, this Christmas will most likely be colder than last year’s, “when the high temperature in Raleigh hit 72°F.”

“By comparison, this Christmas should feel more like winter than spring,” Davis said.

Is ice more likely than snow on Christmas?

Oftentimes when wintry weather is in the forecast in the Triangle, one of the major questions we ask is whether we’ll see snow or ice — or both.

So, if there’s a chance of frozen precipitation for Christmas this year, which form of precipitation are we more likely to see?

It depends on “the quirks of each event,” Davis said, and there aren’t strong, climate-based indicators of what we could see.

“I sometimes say getting snow in North Carolina is like putting together a recipe in exactly the right proportions: having the right amount of cold air at the ground, the right amount of moisture at the mid-levels to produce precipitation, and combining the two at the right time,” Davis said. “If any of those steps is off, that can shift a snow event to an icy one.”

The answer can depend on where you are in the Triangle, too.

“During those storms, there is usually a narrow transition zone, often across the Piedmont, between areas that see all snow and ones that get all rain or freezing rain, and that’s usually determined by the fine details, such as the exact track of the low pressure system or a degree or two of temperature difference in the atmosphere,” Davis said.

How often does it snow on Christmas in the Triangle?

Depending on whether you love snow or hate it, you’re probably having very different reactions to the above information.

Snow-lovers, it’s OK to stay hopeful, but keep this in mind: “Historically, a white Christmas in Raleigh has been a once- or maybe twice-in-a-lifetime event, if you’re lucky,” Davis said.

Since daily weather observations began at Raleigh-Durham International Airport in 1944, measurable snow has fallen on Christmas Day just twice, Davis said: in 1947 and 2010. Less than half an inch of snow fell on Christmas Day in those years, though almost seven inches fell on the day after Christmas in 2010.

Other notable Christmas-adjacent snow events at RDU since 1944 include an inch of snow falling on Christmas Eve of 1966, and almost three inches of snow falling on Dec. 23 in 1993, Davis said.

Why doesn’t it normally snow on Christmas in the Triangle?

But why is snow rare on Christmas in the Triangle?

“The main reason snow on Christmas is so rare here is because snow is a rare event, period,” Davis said.

From 1993 to present, Raleigh has averaged just three days each winter with measurable snow falling, Davis said.

“So the odds of getting one of those to line up exactly with a specific date — in this case, Dec. 25 — are pretty low, or about a 1-in-30 chance in any given year,” Davis said.

And that’s assuming each day of winter has an equal chance of snow, which isn’t the case.

Davis said the majority of the Triangle’s snow events come in January, with 39 snow days that month since 1993, and in February, with 37 snow days that month since 1993. December, on the other hand, has seen just 14 snow days since 1993 in the Triangle.

“With those odds being so low, my usual recommendation for anyone dreaming of a white Christmas is ‘keep dreaming,’” Davis said. “It may happen again in your life, but in this part of the country, we just can’t count on it happening with any sort of reliability or regularity.”

If not on Christmas, then later this winter?

This part’s just for you, snow-lovers. Don’t give up hope just yet for a snow day, or days, this winter.

Davis said he’s looking closely at January for possible snow — because, as noted above, that’s typically when the Triangle sees snow, and because “it’s our coldest month of the year.”

The good news if we see precipitation in January?

“Whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, or ice, having any of those events in January could help keep drought at bay,” Davis said. “Given the ongoing La Niña, we’re expecting this winter will be drier than normal, but timely precipitation throughout the season could help reduce the coverage of drought — currently in the Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain — and limit any drought impacts we might feel, such as low stream levels or soils too dry for planting once spring comes along.”

Davis is also “curious” to see what happens in February, he said, but for different reasons than January.

“It’s very common in La Niña winters for our temperatures to start warming up by February, and even to feel like springtime for much of the month. As we noted in our winter outlook, each of the past 11 Februarys in La Niña winters has been warmer than the 20th-century average in North Carolina, including our warmest February on record in 2018,” Davis said.

“With those recent trends during La Niña events in mind, I don’t expect this February to be particularly cool or wintry, so any snow at that time this winter would feel like unwrapping something on Christmas that wasn’t even on your wish list.”

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