Could Mike Elko take Duke football to bowl game this season? Here’s what path looks like

Five wins in the last two seasons and no bowl games over the last three seasons are two reasons why Mike Elko is Duke’s coach and David Cutcliffe is not.

The move was made aiming to get back to where Duke was during the last decade, when Cutcliffe led the Blue Devils to six bowl games in seven seasons from 2012-18.

Lo and behold, Elko has Duke (3-0) halfway to bowl eligibility just three games into his first head coaching job.

It’s a great start but, of course, it must be tempered by Duke’s competition thus far. Temple, Northwestern and N.C. A&T are a combined 2-7. So the schedule only gets tougher from here.

A year ago, Duke started 3-1 before losing all eight of its ACC games.

However, the outlook is better this season. ESPN’s Football Power Index places Duke’s chances of achieving bowl eligibility at 79%. The Pro Football Focus ratings have the Blue Devils chances at 76% while projecting a seven-win season.

For comparison, three ACC teams on Duke’s schedule — Virginia Tech (39%), Virginia (38%) and Boston College (4%) — have much worse outlooks per ESPN’s FPI.

With that in mind, here’s a look at the rest of Duke’s schedule with a look at how the opponents have performed thus far and the likelihood the Blue Devils could win.

SATURDAY, AT KANSAS

Record: 3-0

So far: The Jayhawks, seeking the program’s first winning record since 2008, appear headed toward an historic season. They’ve already won road games at West Virginia and Houston thanks to a high-powered offense.

Duke success meter: Unlikely. Duke’s defense, though better than the last two years, still showed some holes while beating Northwestern. Kansas is equipped to put points on the board. The Blue Devils will have a hard time keeping up.

OCT. 1, VIRGINIA

Record: 2-1

So far: Both schools interviewed Tony Elliott, then Clemson’s offensive coordinator, to be their head coach last December. Elliott headed to Virginia and Duke hired Elko. But despite having a talented quarterback in Brennan Armstrong, the Cavaliers aren’t playing like a team coached by someone with a strong background on offense. The Cavaliers average just 17.7 points per game. They’ve turned it over eight times in three games.

Duke success meter: A win looks far more likely now than a month ago. Duke’s lost seven consecutive games to Virginia. Bronco Mendenhall had Cutcliffe’s number. But both of those coaches departed after last season.

OCT. 8, AT GEORGIA TECH

Record: 1-2, 0-1 ACC

So far: The Geoff Collins era at Georgia Tech appears to be drawing to a close. Yes, both of the Yellow Jackets’ losses have been to ranked teams but they were blown out both times — 41-10 by Clemson, 42-0 by Mississippi. Georgia Tech’s putrid third-down conversion success (28.9%) is a big reason why it is last in the ACC in scoring (15 points per game).

Duke success meter: Though this game is in Atlanta, it is one Duke absolutely must win to gain bowl eligibility. The Blue Devils are in position to get this one for sure.

OCT. 15, NORTH CAROLINA

Record: 3-0

So far: Drake Maye has proven a more than capable replacement at quarterback for Sam Howell, who led the Tar Heels to wins the last three times they’ve played Duke. Maye will be tough for the Blue Devils to handle. UNC’s defense gives up yards and points in large chunks, something for defensive coordinator Gene Chizik to address. But the Tar Heels score plenty with two more freshmen — running back Omarion Hampton and wide receiver Kobe Paysour.

Duke success meter: Looks like a loss. Yes, Duke should move the ball and score on UNC’s defense. But the Tar Heels have so much talent on offense that they should walk out of Wallace Wade Stadium retaining the Victory Bell trophy.

OCT. 22, AT MIAMI

Record: 2-1

So far: New coach Mario Cristobal has re-energized the Hurricanes program, spawning plenty of “The U is Back” takes. The 17-9 loss at Texas A&M dampened that. Still, Miami has a solid quarterback in Tyler Van Dyke and a more than capable running game with Henry Parrish. Miami’s defense has looked good thus far, as well, allowing just 12.3 points per game.

Duke success meter: Tough road game for the Blue Devils here. Duke won at Miami in 2018 to clinch bowl eligibility that season, so there are good vibes for the Blue Devils. But Miami will be a heavy favorite this year.

NOV. 4, AT BOSTON COLLEGE

Record: 1-2, 0-1 ACC

So far: The Eagles stumbled out of the gate this season, losing 22-21 at home to Rutgers before dropping a 27-10 game at Virginia Tech. Whipping Maine, 38-17, last Saturday did little improve Boston College’s outlook. With three interceptions already plus a 59.4% completion rate, senior quarterback Phil Jurkovec doesn’t look the part of the experienced leader. Offensive linemen Kevin Cline and Christian Mahogany are out for the season with ACL tears. The Eagles started a preferred walk-on at left tackle against Maine.

Duke success meter: Looks likely. A late fall Friday night in suburban Boston could be chilly. The Blue Devils need to get a win here to boost their bowl chances.

NOV. 12, VIRGINIA TECH

Record: 2-1, 1-0 ACC

So far: The Hokies self-inflicted pain in losing 20-17 at Old Dominion on Sept. 2 by fumbling and bumbling with penalties and turnovers. They’ve recovered with wins over Boston College and Wofford. Still, plenty of questions remain about the Brent Pry coaching era. That’s not good with the next five games being against West Virginia, UNC, Pittsburgh, Miami and N.C. State.

Duke success meter: So-so. Virginia Tech’s season could be in the dumpster by the time the trip to Durham comes in November. Or the Hokies could improve on the fly and need the win at Duke for bowl eligibility. Too soon to know.

NOV. 19, AT PITTSBURGH

Record: 2-1

So far: The reigning ACC champion Panthers remain among the top 25 teams in the national rankings with their only loss a 34-27 overtime setback to Tennessee. That’s despite the quarterback situation being unsettled due to injuries to Kevin Slovis and Nick Patti. Still, Pitt is averaging 33 points per game thanks to running back Israel Abanikanda (100.6 yards per game) and a stout offensive line. Pitt’s defense has allowed 26 points per game and forced seven turnovers to help the offense.

Duke success meter: Not good. Like Virginia, Duke hasn’t defeated Pittsburgh since 2014. The Blue Devils are 1-7 against the Panthers in ACC play. Pitt has mostly pushed Duke around.

NOV. 26, WAKE FOREST

Record: 3-0

So far: The Demon Deacons endured a scary health situation involving quarterback Sam Hartman (blood clot) and have started the season looking like an Atlantic Division contender once again. Wake’s offense produces 434 yards and 42 points a game with Hartman throwing to big-play receivers A.T. Perry, Donavon Greene and Jahmal Banks. Wake’s defense has allowed only 23.7 points per game.

Duke success meter: Can’t see a win coming from this one. Wake owns a three-game winning streak in the series with wins in four of the last five games. Elko is building Duke toward this level but the Blue Devils aren’t there yet.