Who could form England's new-look pace attack?

Left to right: Matthew Potts, Mark Wood, Josh Tongue during an England Test kit photoshoot
Mark Wood (centre) is a regular in the Test team while Matthew Potts (left) and Josh Tongue (right) will hope to force their way in [Getty Images]

The Ashes in Australia may be 18 months away but England are already building towards them.

James Anderson, 41, will retire after the opening Test of the summer, with head coach Brendon McCullum keen to build a pace attack capable of winning back the Ashes for the first time since 2015.

England men's managing director Rob Key recently told The Telegraph that "pace is more important than wickets" when assessing bowlers' strengths.

Michael Vaughan, who captained England to victory in the 2005 Ashes, told BBC Radio 5 Live there is a "massive opportunity" for bowlers on the county circuit.

But who will England turn to as they rebuild without Anderson and Stuart Broad?

BBC Sport, with the help of data analysts CricViz, have looked at the options available to McCullum and captain Ben Stokes.

The experience

A grouped bar chart showing the following data from their England Test careers: Wickets - Wood 104, Woakes 149, Robinson 76; Average: Wood 28.96, Woakes 28.83, Robinson 21.05; Strike-rate: Wood 71.22, Woakes 53.06, Robinson 55.78
[BBC Sport]

England are losing a gigantic chunk of experience with Anderson and Broad retiring in a 12-month spell.

One name that is a guarantee to be on the plane to Australia, fitness permitting, is Mark Wood. The right-armer can regularly reach speeds in excess of 90mph and has taken 26 wickets in eight Tests under Stokes and McCullum.

Chris Woakes was mightily impressive in last summer's home Ashes, taking 19 wickets in three Tests at 18.15. He may be an option for England this summer, especially with a lack of new-ball contenders, but he averages 49.80 in seven Tests in Australia so attention may be diverted elsewhere.

Ollie Robinson has taken 37 wickets in 11 Tests under McCullum and Stokes but he has had fitness and injury concerns. His pace can drop throughout spells too, so he may have work to do.

The recently capped players

Potential England bowlers in the 2024 County Championship: Wickets: Porter 25, Pennington 15, Cook 25, Worrall 16, Potts 6, Fisher 9, Atkinson 9, C Overton 9, Carse 1, Stone 4, J Overton 0, Mahmood 1. Average: Porter 17, Pennington 26.93, Cook 11.2, Worrall 18.5, Potts 63.16, Fisher 37.33, Atkinson 20.88, Overton 36.66, Carse 286, Stone 39, Mahmood 61. Strike-rate: Porter 34.6, Pennington 50.8, Cook 27.4, Worrall 42.5, Potts 108.5, Fisher 64.6, Atkinson 42.6, C Overton 63.3, Carse 378, Stone 81.5, J Overton N/A and Mahmood 108
Average is how many runs a bowler concedes per wicket taken, while strike-rate is how many balls bowled per wicket taken [BBC Sport]

There are some names that have featured for England across formats in the last 12 months that immediately spring to mind as contenders.

Nottinghamshire's Josh Tongue impressed with 10 wickets in two Tests last summer, but is yet to feature this campaign. His average pace isn't that high at 84.9mph but he hurried batters and troubled them with short balls.

His Notts team-mate Olly Stone is returning to action after injury and could add to his three Tests, with his last in 2021. England will need bowlers who can take the new ball and Stone has demonstrated an ability to bowl with the new (56 of his 160 first-class wickets) and old ball.

Matthew Potts of Durham came into the Test team in 2022 but only featured against Ireland last year. Vaughan thinks we'll "see a lot more of" Potts, who has claimed 23 wickets across different periods of the game in his six Tests. His form this season doesn't stand out though.

Lancashire's Saqib Mahmood returned to first-team action last week after suffering two stress fractures in his back. His two Tests were pre-McCullum and Stokes but his ability to bowl mid-to-high 80s throughout an innings will put him in the mix if he can stay fit.

Brydon Carse is a team-mate of Potts at Durham and has played 17 white-ball games for England. He can reach speeds in the high 80s and bowls an aggressive stump-to-stump line. His form this season is a concern but a career red-ball average of 33.22 puts him in contention.

Surrey's Gus Atkinson has charged onto the scene in the last 12 months and was unused during the Test tour of India in January and February. A debut is likely to come soon, and he's a real threat in the middle overs, averaging 11.50 this season. He's dangerous with the short ball too, averaging 10.33.

Jamie Overton of Surrey will also be in conversations after making his Test debut in 2023. He can bowl quick and offers something with the bat but he is currently out injured.

Somerset's Craig Overton last played a Test in March 2022 but is regularly among the leading wicket-takers in county cricket. He bowled in the low 80s in his eight Tests and may have been overtaken in the pecking order in red-ball cricket.

Jofra Archer is someone England will want in their squad, with Vaughan saying he is "world class" and offers an "X-factor". He is returning to cricket after repeated elbow surgeries though, and the plan is to play Test cricket in 2025.

An outside bet may be left-armer Sam Curran, who last played a Test in 2021. He would offer a different angle but his average pace was below 80mph which may count against him. He would offer valuable lower-order runs though.

The other contenders

Essex's Jamie Porter has been a name on many people's lips over the years, and he's had a strong start to the season. He has taken 18 of his 25 wickets with the new ball (inside the first 30 overs) and that could put him in contention despite not reaching the really high speeds England may desire.

His team-mate Sam Cook is another new-ball option and he consistently bowls a good length, taking 80% of his wickets with balls in that area. He's another, though, whose lack of pace may count against him.

An interesting candidate is Surrey's Dan Worrall. The 32-year-old has played three ODIs for Australia but changed allegiance in April 2022. The rules stipulate you have to wait three years before being available for selection though. He's taken 11 new-ball wickets at 15.45 this year.

Another new-ball option is Nottinghamshire's Dillon Pennington who has been impressive after his switch from Worcestershire. He's taken 13 of his 15 wickets with the new ball.

Leicestershire's left-armer Josh Hull, who is 6ft 7in, has been name-checked by Key. The 19-year-old is raw but he's shown an ability to bowl quick and his height and angle could add another element to England's attack. He averages a less-than-stellar 62.77 in six first-class games, though.

England have shown, however, they don't mind picking on potential - just look at the success of 20-year-old off-spinner Shoaib Bashir on the tour of India.

Hampshire's John Turner has been named in white-ball squads but is yet to make his debut. He's been compared to Australia great Glenn McGrath, and has the ability to bowl quick while being accurate. He's only played three first-class games, with eight of his 10 wickets coming after the 30th over.

Yorkshire's Matthew Fisher was called up for a tour of West Indies in March 2022 when England tried to move on from Anderson and Broad and took one wicket in his sole appearance. At 26, he could still forge an international career but he may have been superseded in the pecking order.

Don't look far for clues - analysis

Stephan Shemilt, BBC Sport chief cricket writer

You don’t have to look very far for clues as to which pace bowlers England see as their immediate future.

Last year, multi-year central contracts were given to usual suspects like Mark Wood, Jofra Archer and Chris Woakes, alongside up-and-comers Matthew Potts, Gus Atkinson, Josh Tongue and Brydon Carse.

Archer won’t play red-ball cricket this summer and Carse has not had a good start to the season with Durham, so after Anderson’s farewell, expect an attack chosen from Wood, Woakes, Potts, Tongue and Atkinson. A name notably absent from that list is Ollie Robinson. After his disappointing tour of India, Robinson has work to do to get back in favour.

Outside of the contracted group, Essex’s Sam Cook is seen as the most Anderson-like bowler on the county circuit. He has been a prolific wicket-taker in recent seasons, but may lack the pace England are so determined to take to Australia.

Keep an eye on Dillon Pennington, who has impressed in the early part of the season. Big and strong, with the ability to move the ball from an awkward length, he looks to have the attributes that would fit at a higher level.

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