What could the first round of fantasy basketball drafts look like next season?

By Nick Whalen, RotoWire

Special to Yahoo Sports

While we haven’t quite concluded the 2021-22 NBA regular season, the fantasy season has already wrapped up in many leagues. That means we’ve reached the point in the calendar when it’s completely acceptable to begin shifting at least some of your attention toward preparing for the 2022-23 campaign — don’t let anyone tell you otherwise.

It may seem like a distant speck on the horizon, but we’re only four or five months away from the start of draft season. With that in mind, let’s take a closer look at how the first round of 2022-23 drafts may look at this juncture.

Warning: it’s not nearly as clean-cut as in years past. Due to a combination of several veteran stars missing significant time this season, as well as an upswell in young talent around the league, narrowing the list down to 15 or 20 candidates — let alone 10 or 12 — is nearly an impossible task. Names like Damian Lillard, Paul George and Kawhi Leonard were virtual non-factors in 2021-22, but each has strong track records of fantasy brilliance and can’t be written off again next season.

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Given these circumstances, we’ll examine each of the players I currently deem reasonable first-round fantasy targets for 2022-23. In the process, we’ll separate each player into a series of tiers, which are explained below:

• Within each tier, players are listed in order of how I would draft them in an eight-category, roto league.

• “First-round value” assumes a 12-team league

• Player rankings refer to 8-category, total value unless otherwise specified

• Tiers are not necessarily in order. For instance, I would draft Damian Lillard ahead of Anthony Davis and LaMelo Ball ahead of Bradley Beal.

Unquestioned No. 1 overall pick

No explanation needed.

Nikola Jokic, Nuggets

Ironically, the only real no-brainer for next season is the No. 1 overall pick. Unless you’re playing in a league that doesn’t value points, rebounds, assists or efficiency, there’s almost no argument at this point to select anyone other than the reigning MVP. Jokic will finish as the No. 1 overall fantasy player for the second straight season. Dating back to 2017-18, he hasn’t finished lower than ninth overall in 8-cat total value.

Tier 1 fantasy superstars

High-upside superstars who’ve returned first-round value in multiple seasons and carry minimal risk.

Karl-Anthony Towns, Timberwolves

After missing significant time in both 2019-20 and 2020-21, Towns is enjoying a major bounceback this season. His numbers remained strong throughout the injury issues, but now that he’s back on track from a durability perspective, the 26-year-old could justifiably come off the board as high as No. 2 overall this fall.

Trae Young, Hawks

Young recently overtook Joel Embiid for the No. 2 spot behind Jokic in 8-cat total value this season. Despite his size, Young has proven to be extremely durable, and he’s well on course to smash his career-highs in field-goal, free-throw and three-point percentage.

Jayson Tatum, Celtics

Over the last three seasons, Tatum has ranked 15th, eighth and now fifth overall in total value. While his scoring efficiency dipped a bit this season, Tatum has bounced back from a rough start to emerge as one of the five best players in the league over the second half. Still just 24 years old, Tatum should only get better as he enters his prime years.

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Stephen Curry, Warriors

Curry cooled off significantly over the second half of the season, and a foot injury will end up costing him the Warriors’ final 12 games. Still, in what turned into somewhat of a down year by Curry’s standards, he’ll finish as a top-10 player while leading the league in made threes for the eighth time in his career. Prior to the foot injury, the 34-year-old missed only six games — most of which were due to rest.

James Harden, 76ers

It feels like everything has gone wrong for Harden since he forced his way out of Houston. But despite a turbulent, injury-plagued run in Brooklyn and an up-and-down start to his time with the Sixers, Harden remains an unfettered counting stat machine. He’ll likely play in roughly 65 games and still finish as a top-10 fantasy player for the ninth time in 10 seasons.

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks

At this point, fantasy managers know the scouting report on the two-time MVP. His pedestrian free-throw percentage, while somewhat improved, will prevent him from climbing all the way up to the top five. But Antetokounmpo is so durable and so good in nearly every other area that he’s still one of the safest bets to return first-round value on an annual basis.

Joel Embiid, 76ers

There’s a case to be made that Embiid belongs in the section below, but he’s on track for a top-three finish in total value, despite playing a maximum of 69 games. Embiid’s early career health issues are well-documented and could always resurface, but he’ll be coming off of his healthiest and most-productive season to date.

Fantasy stars — with a catch

High-upside superstars with top-five upside but significant health or statistical question marks.

Luka Doncic, Mavericks

Over the last three seasons, Doncic has developed a habit of coming out of the gates slowly before morphing into arguably the best player in the league after the All-Star break. He’s having another monster year, but his lack of progress at the line (74.4% FT) is a glaring hole in his fantasy profile.

Kevin Durant, Nets

Strictly on a per-game-value basis, Durant would be in the conversation for the No. 2 spot behind Jokic. Since returning from the torn Achilles that wiped out his 2019-20 campaign, Durant has looked better than ever, averaging 28.8 points, 7.2 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 1.1 blocks and shooting 52.9 percent from the field (89.6% FT) over the last two seasons. However, he’s only played 86 games during that stretch, and while his durability issues aren’t related to the Achilles injury, they’re unlikely to subside as he moves through his mid-30s.

LeBron James, Lakers

Injuries are finally beginning to take their toll on one of the greatest ironmen in NBA history. At age 37, James is having one of the most remarkable statistical seasons of his career — 30.3 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 6.2 APG, 1.3 SPG, 1.1 BPG, 52.4% FG — but he’s on pace to play fever than 60 games for the third time in four years. Set to turn 38 early next season, James’ borderline-reckless workload is bound to catch up with him again.

Kyrie Irving, Nets

In the past, the “catch” with Irving was always his durability. Due to a wide variety of injuries, he’s missed at least 15 games in six of the last seven seasons. But this season introduced an entirely new set of concerns for the 30-year-old. While the vaccine debate is (hopefully) a thing of the past, Irving is simply not a player managers can draft in Round 1 with any level of confidence. With that said, the talent remains tantalizing — through 25 appearances, he’s the ninth-most-valuable 8-cat player on a per-game basis.

Anthony Davis, Lakers

When healthy, Davis is a first-round value. But after yet another injury-riddled season, Davis is on extremely thin ice with the fantasy community. Given how often he’s unavailable, and how much top-end talent the league holds right now, there’s really no reason to risk a first-round pick on a guy who’s played 56, 62, 36 and 43 (best-case) games over the last four years.

Proven stars set to bounce back

Proven, All-NBA-caliber players who missed more than half of the season due to injury.

Damian Lillard, Trail Blazers

Coming into 2021-22, Lillard was arguably the most consistent player in all of fantasy basketball. A top-20 player in his first nine NBA seasons, Lillard was coming off his fourth consecutive top-10 finish. But for the first time in his career, he dealt with a significant setback, as a lingering abdominal issue limited him to just 29 games. However, the six-time All-Star is still young enough (31) that it’s not a major concern going forward, so even though his track record is no longer bulletproof, Lillard will likely carry a top-10 ADP again in 2022-23 drafts.

Paul George, Clippers

George is back just in time for the postseason, but the bulk of his fantasy season was wiped out by an elbow injury that cost him 48 games from December through late March. George’s health record hasn’t been ideal since he arrived in LA — and Kawhi Leonard will be back in the fold — so he’ll likely find himself in the fringe-first-round discussion next season.

Kawhi Leonard, Clippers

Who knows if we’ll see Leonard during the playoffs, but he’s going to end up missing the entire regular season. Even before the partially torn ACL, Leonard was near the top of the list of injury liabilities, but he was a top-10 player in per-game value from 2018-21. In the long run, the year off could be good for Leonard, though he’s unlikely to ever top 65-to-70 games for the remainder of his career.

Bradley Beal, Wizards

Wrist surgery will end up costing Beal the final 33 games of the season, but even before the injury, he didn’t look like himself. After averaging a career-high 31.3 points on 48.5 percent shooting in 2020-21, Beal’s scoring (23.2 PPG) and efficiency (45.1% FG; 30.0% 3Pt) plummeted through 40 appearances. Given his past production (three top-11 finishes from 2018-21), Beal could be set for a major bounce-back next season. But he’s sowed just enough doubt that he’ll likely slip to the second — or possibly even third — round in many drafts.

Young, ascending fantasy stars

Four up-and-coming guards who’ve forced their way into the first-round discussion with elite 2021-22 production.

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Dejounte Murray, Spurs

One of the top fantasy breakout candidates coming into the year, Murray has fully delivered on the hype — and then some. Currently sitting as the No. 6 player in 8-cat value, Murray ranks first in the NBA in steals, fourth in assists, 21st in points and 29th in rebounds (third among guards behind Russell Westbrook and Doncic). The 25-year-old is 1.6 rebounds and 0.7 assists away from averaging a triple-double with 2.0 steals per game and a plus field goal percentage (46.3% FG).

LaMelo Ball, Hornets

Ranking only three spots behind Murray in 8-cat total value, the 21-year-old is already one of the league’s premier all-around fantasy guards. He’s already made a huge leap as a free-throw shooter (86.9% FT, up from 75.8% as a rookie), so the hope is that Ball’s overall field goal percentage (42.5% FG) can follow suit. If it can, he could be a top-five fantasy player for years to come.

Tyrese Haliburton, Pacers

A lack of missed games and a heavy workload on a tanking team have boosted Haliburton’s value, but the fact that he’s a top-10 player in 8-cat leagues simply can’t be ignored. The 22-year-old is on pace to finish in the top five in total steals and assists while shooting north of 40 percent from three for the second straight year to begin his career.

Fred VanVleet, Raptors

VanVleet is turning in a near carbon copy of his outstanding 2020-21 season. While he’s up to a career-best 3.8 made threes per game, the high volume has kept his field goal percentage hovering around 40 percent. That’s the lone blemish on VanVleet’s fantasy profile, but it’s a relatively big one.

On the outside looking in

Players with late-first-round upside if they improve and catch a few breaks.

Devin Booker, Suns: Just 25 years old with proven durability. On pace for his fourth straight top-25 finish in 2021-22.

Donovan Mitchell, Jazz: Five seasons in, Mitchell has established a high baseline with room to improve his efficiency and passing. On pace for the best fantasy finish of his career.

Darius Garland, Cavaliers: Jumped from 96th overall last season to 21st this season. Managers may have to reach in drafts to obtain Garland’s services in 2022-23.

Domantas Sabonis, Kings: Nearly returned first-round value in 2020-21 and could bounce back with more stability.

Jaren Jackson Jr., Grizzlies: Despite a unique stat profile with some notable pitfalls — including just 27.2 MPG in 2021-22 — Jackson’s combination of elite shot-blocking, three-point shooting and a solid free throw percentage make him a high-upside fantasy target.

DeMar DeRozan, Bulls: Chances that he repeats his career-best production as a 33-year-old next season? Not great. But DeRozan has to be considered after his shockingly stellar 2021-22 campaign.

Anthony Edwards, Timberwolves: Probably a year away from true Round 1 consideration, but Edwards is the type of player who could make a massive year-to-year leap.

Miles Bridges, Hornets: Took a big leap forward and currently ranks 15th in 8-cat. Value is heavily tied to lack of missed games (two), however.