Could Daniel Cameron beat Andy Beshear? Kentucky political experts weigh in.

Republican gubernatorial nominee Attorney General Daniel Cameron is facing one of the nation’s most popular governors who’s outraised and outspent him at every turn.

But many Kentucky political experts see a path to victory, and potentially some late-breaking momentum, for the Republican rising star against Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear. A Cameron win, many argue, would all but shut the door on Democrats in the halls of power in Frankfort any time soon.

Beshear’s campaign has vastly outspent Cameron on television advertisements this cycle, but Cameron has been buoyed somewhat by outside groups like Bluegrass Freedom Action, School Freedom Fund and more who have aired ads taking down Beshear and uplifting Cameron. Most all publicly available polls show Beshear up over Cameron, but many experts have warned against putting too much stock into polling the state.

So what needs to break Cameron’s way to surprise on election night? Can his campaign do anything in the final days to make up ground? And where in the state does he have to improve his margins?

The Herald-Leader reached out to more than a dozen people involved in Kentucky politics to get their perspective. Here’s what they had to say when we asked these questions:

What is Daniel Cameron’s path to victory?

Sen. Phillip Wheeler, R-Pikeville: Improve Republican margins in the “Golden Triangle” and maintain elsewhere in the state.

Chris Kirkwood, Lexington, University of Kentucky political science Phd candidate & elections analyst: Winning the Lexington collar county region and all of the marginal Beshear counties from 2019.

Hannah Drake, Louisville, activist & writer: Daniel missed his path to victory when he chose his running mate. I do not know anything about his running mate, but Daniel Cameron would have done better, I believe, had he selected a woman as a running mate.

Rep. Daniel Grossberg, D-Louisville: A very high turnout from the non-urban areas, particularly the strongest pro-Trump areas in Eastern and Western Kentucky.

Andrew Cooperrider, Nicholasville, former GOP candidate for state Senate and treasurer: First, holding a rally with Trump in person could really help with turn out. Second, when asked why a person should vote for Cameron, “well he’s not Beshear” can’t be the number one answer if you are trying to get people to turn out and vote for you. This is a turnout election, not a “win over voters” election.

Larry Glover, Lexington, talk radio host: He needs a big GOP turnout. The GOP have more registered voters in Kentucky than the Democrats do now, and the Attorney General needs them to turn out.

House Majority Floor Leader Steven Rudy, R-Paducah: Rural social conservatives turn out.

Jazmin Smith, Louisville, attorney & co-host of Democratic show “My Old Kentucky Podcast”: Cameron can win if turnout is low in Louisville and he does well in Eastern and Western Kentucky. Bevin did not do well in Eastern Kentucky in comparison to Donald Trump, so if the Trump endorsement can help Daniel Cameron somewhere, it should theoretically be here.

Tres Watson, Lexington, former Republican Party of Kentucky spokesperson: He needs to win back Warren and Madison counties and Northern Kentucky, all of which Bevin lost in 2019. He also needs to turnout Trump voters in rural counties and run up margins there to counteract big Beshear margins in Louisville and Lexington.

Chris Wiest, Kenton County, Northern Kentucky attorney: Moderate women in purple areas of the state (who Daniel will both need to convince and then convince to turn out). He will also need to turn out votes in red and deep red areas of the state. There’s been a momentum shift over the past 4-7 days for Cameron; I don’t think he’s won it yet, but if momentum continues he’s in a good place.

TJ Litafik, Lexington, Republican strategist: Cameron will need to outperform former governor Matt Bevin’s numbers in the “Golden Triangle,” snatch away some “collar” and college counties that Beshear won in 2019 and increase Republican margins in rural Eastern and Western Kentucky counties.

Al Cross, Frankfort, longtime Kentucky political journalist and observer: Gin up turnout in rural areas and make voters base the election as a referendum on Trump versus Biden.

Stephen Voss, Lexington, University of Kentucky political science professor: Voter engagement has been especially high around cities lately while lagging in small towns and rural areas. Cameron’s best hope for outperforming the polling is if Republican-leaning voters show up in much higher numbers than the pollsters have been anticipating. GOP territory would need to wake up.

What county or region must Cameron win?

Glover: I think he needs to surprise in Jefferson County. He cannot allow Gov. Beshear to put up a really big number Louisville. He needs to minimize the damage in Louisville as much as he can.

Wheeler: Eastern Kentucky.

Grossberg: Cameron will win Eastern and Western, but if he really runs up the score in Northern Kentucky, he’s got it.

Rudy: West and East.

Rebecca Blankenship, Berea, Democratic State Central Executive Committee member & state’s first openly transgender elected official:: Madison County.

Jared Smith, lobbyist and Democratic political consultant: He has to keep the margin down in Jefferson County, win Northern Kentucky and hope that (lieutenant governor candidate Sen. Robby) Mills carries those same Western Kentucky coal counties that the Beshears have traditionally done well in.

Bill Bartleman, McCracken County commissioner and former Paducah Sun state correspondent: He must win big in the 1st and 2nd U.S. Congressional Districts to overcome margins in Louisville and Central Kentucky.

Robert Kahne, Kentucky Democratic Party State Central Executive Committee member & co-host of “My Old Kentucky Podcast”: He has to tamp down margins in Jefferson and Fayette counties and push out margins in Southeastern Kentucky – the traditionally GOP areas like Somerset, London and Corbin.

If Daniel Cameron wins, it will be because of this:

Grossberg: Culture war issues.

Wheeler: Kentucky is a state of traditional values.

Kahne: Kentuckians don’t care much about state politics and Trumpism rules the day.

Rudy: He effectively paints Andy as a national Democrat.

Litafik: Voters wanted to punish Democrats and chose to lump in Gov. Beshear with President Biden and other national Democratic politicians. The red wave is very real, and it can sweep even the most popular and successful Democratic governor under the tide in a state like Kentucky.

Cross: Trump.

Voss: Cameron has little going for him aside from the dislike Kentucky voters feel toward the national Democratic Party. Campaigning is an educational process, and Cameron needs to figure out a way to remind voters why they usually prefer Republicans — which is tough to do right now.

Cooperrider: He was able to turn out and get enough Trump voters to vote for him, while being able to coordinate a great “get out the vote” campaign in the final days. Additionally it would mean many of the Republican (registered) voters came home to Cameron.

Bartleman: He’s an articulate new generation Republican who supports conservative issues and would work well with the legislature.

Wiest: Because he has convinced voters that Andy is a radical leftist, and because he sells voters that (he is) the rational, pro-family, candidate. Turnout is key, and turning out Republican voters is critical. There are Republican voters that, right now, Daniel hasn’t sold, and he needs to close the deal between now and election day.

If Daniel Cameron loses, it will be because of this:

Wiest: It will be because the campaign failed to win purple areas, and, critically, failed to do what they needed to do in Northern Kentucky: unite fractured Republicans and then turn them out to vote.

Drake: First and foremost, it will be because of Breonna Taylor and his failure to seek any justice for her. We have not forgotten Breonna. Also, Daniel is not prepared well as a candidate. He isn’t definitive even on things he says he believes. People like to know who they are voting for, and Daniel never takes a stand on anything with conviction.

Jared Smith: Cameron has run a terrible campaign. Since when have Republicans had problems raising money? It’s also interesting that Kelly Craft and Ryan Quarles (the third and second-place finishers in the GOP primary, respectively) have been no-shows on the trail.

Wheeler: He was outspent.

Watson: Trump voters who have switched parties but have been voting for Beshears since the 1970s and have a comfort level with the name.

Litafik: This just was not Cameron’s race to win, and many voters had doubts as to his readiness for the job and his motivations for running for governor at this time. Kentuckians stuck with a governor (and a name) they knew, and they chose to differentiate a governor’s race from a federal campaign.

Kirkwood: Finances, a messy primary, Mills having written the sewer bill and being noncommittal overall.

Blankenship: Rather than speaking to voters’ needs and values, Cameron’s camp and his PACs have been sharing their most feverish dreams about LGBT people. The polls don’t suggest it’s working — or that any but the most unhinged are even listening.

Cross: People made up their minds about Beshear and don’t think the race is about national issues.

Grossberg: If he loses, it’s because he had no substantive message compared to Beshear or because he is Black and many voters of his party couldn’t handle that.

Rudy: Too focused on social issues and didn’t hit Andy enough on vulnerable topics.

Jazmin Smith: His inability to inspire. He ran a largely negative campaign against Beshear/Biden, but failed to bring anything exciting to the table. While Daniel Cameron once felt like a young, Republican rising star just four years ago in his Attorney General race, he seems to have lost his shine in this campaign.

What would a Daniel Cameron win say about Kentucky voters?

Rudy: The Democrat party of Kentucky is dead.

Grossberg: A Cameron win tells us that this is now a solidly red state, loyal to Trump more than to its own success.

Bartleman: They stick with party line votes and have confidence Cameron can work with the legislature to tackle issues.

Kahne: People think Andy Beshear and Joe Biden are the same.

Litafik: Outside of Louisville and Lexington, Democrats can pretty well forget about winning, at least for a long time. Republican dominance in Kentucky is complete, and even the stoutest incumbent Democratic governor cannot overcome the fervent partisanship that is now definitive of politics in the Commonwealth.

Jazmin Smith: Kentucky has become an increasingly red state where the party next to your name matters. Cameron has also focused on crime and an education plan centered around children falling behind in school and I think a Cameron win would show that voters are sensitive to that threat and that fear may influence how they vote.

Cooperrider: Beshear has campaigned the best someone could while still toeing the line to not upset the Democrat base. If he as an incumbent being as moderate in his messaging as he has been can’t win in the rural south, that sends a message that the party is so far left that anyone who even puts a D next to their name is doomed.

Wheeler: That the GOP revolution in Kentucky is here to stay for at least a generation.

Glover: That the Democratic party message just isn’t resonating with Kentuckians. The Kentucky Dems need to come up with an appealing message to help them become competitive in statewide races.

Cross: They have embraced the Republican label and don’t care that much about race.

Voss: If Cameron wins despite consistently trailing in the polls, the main thing we’ll learn about Kentucky voters is that they remain incredibly difficult to predict. Some conservatives finalize their decisions late in election season, and others refuse to cooperate with pollsters. If they’re numerous enough, we might be surprised.