Couch: 3 quick takes on Michigan State's 71-68 loss at Illinois

1. MSU never should have needed that win at Illinois. But it did.

CHAMPAIGN, Ill. – That’s the sort of game Michigan State needed to find a way to win if it hoped to still have a realistic shot to win the Big Ten.

The Spartans at least this time played with the vigor and resolve it takes to contend. And if they play like that the rest of the way, they’ll win most of their remaining Big Ten games. But Thursday night’s 71-68 loss at Illinois was the sort of game MSU had to have to make up for its earlier missteps, including Sunday’s lack of grit at Northwestern.

What MSU mostly needed Thursday night was for Tyson Walker to make the shots he often does. Walker went 1-for-7 from long range, while, on the other end, Illinois big man Coleman Hawkins went 3-for-5, each of them doing most of their damage down the stretch.

A.J. Hoggard kept the Spartans from falling too far behind and then spurred their second-half run that put them up six at one point. Hoggard has been really good for a while now. Tom Izzo talked this week about how much he’s come to trust Hoggard. As precarious as it sounds, I think fans can, too.

What Izzo and fans can’t trust is the Spartans' getting stops and rebounds from their centers. Or big shots to fall on the road. They also sent Illinois to the free-throw line too often, where the Illini made 18 of 22 free throws, while only taking seven and making five themselves.

MSU did a lot well, too, holding Illinois without a field goal for the final five minutes and fighting back after trailing by eight deep into the second half.

The Spartans dug themselves a hole that probably made this a necessary win. It shouldn’t have been a game they needed. That’s their fault. But their effort Thursday was fine, even if the result is frustrating.

2. MSU has a chance to go on a run now and flip its record

If you take a snapshot of MSU’s situation — 1-4 in the Big Ten and 9-7 overall — things don’t look so hot. And they could be better, no question. But MSU also has a chance to get on a run, given the schedule ahead. And the way they’re playing, other than at Northwestern. Losing a tight game at Illinois, on its own, isn’t a loss to be concerned about.

Izzo might sometimes think analytics are “crap”, as he so eloquently put it last Sunday, but MSU is projected to win 11 of its next 12 games by advanced analytics site Kenpom.com. The Spartans entered Thursday night ranked No. 17 by Kenpom — playing at No. 9 Illinois. Next, though, they have home games against No. 85 Rutgers and No. 78 Minnesota, before a game at No. 81 Maryland. After a road date at No. 11 Wisconsin on Jan. 26, MSU hosts No. 74 Michigan, then Maryland, and returns the game at Minnesota, before Illinois visits Breslin Center on Feb. 10. MSU is projected to win that game against the Illini by 1. Then MSU is at No. 115 Penn State and Michigan, before No. 51 Iowa and 40 Ohio State visit. All that before March 2 date at No. 3 Purdue.

It’s not that MSU couldn’t drop one of those games. But the Spartans don’t have a loss this year against any team ranked as low by Kenpom as Rutgers, Minnesota, Maryland, Michigan or Penn State, which make up eight of their next 10 games.

I also like their chances at Wisconsin. The Spartans have played well there in recent years. And while the Badgers are a good and seasoned team with a smartly constructed roster, their win in East Lansing, I think, had a lot to do with the health of Malik Hall, who was coming off a week with the flu, and an out-of-the-ordinary outside shooting day by Wisconsin’s AJ Storr. Even on the road, I think that’s a 50-50 game for MSU.

3. Freshman thoughts – the Coen Carr at Illinois edition

Coen Carr was a difference-maker Thursday night. He played just seven minutes. Should have played a little more. If he keeps having the impact he did at Illinois, he will. He finished with four points on 2-for-2 shooting — both alley-oop dunks — and a rebound and a blocked shot, playing both small forward and power forward. Every stat he had was memorable.

His long rebound came on the offensive end, extending an MSU possession when Illinois was beginning to take control, up 15-8. Then, after Tyson Walker turned it over, Jaden Akins delayed the Illini fast break just long enough for Carr to swat a layup attempt out of bounds. In a matter of about 10 seconds, he preserved a possession and prevented points.

His athleticism at the rim twice helped MSU hold onto the moment — first when MSU was making a run to get back in the game and then, his second dunk, to give the Spartans their biggest lead, 48-42.

He’s going to be hard to keep off the floor by February. His contributions in January — on the road, in a setting as tough as any the Spartans will face — are already something.

Bonus: This was never likely to be a good night to work Kohler back into things

Don’t read too much into Jaxon Kohler’s brief appearance and performance Thursday night. This wasn’t the ideal situation to work Kohler back into the rotation or get him some extended run. Illinois is a tough matchup athletically and this game was always likely to be close and tense, the environment only adding to Kohler’s heart rate.

Kohler, who barely played a minute, checking in with 13:24 remaining in the first half in a game the Spartans trailed 10-8, had a rough go of it. His only stat was a turnover, when he spun baseline and tried to pass into traffic. Just like a guy coming back after two months away trying to make a play. Tough spot to do it.

A few seconds later, Illinois’ Quincy Guerrier stepped into a 3-pointer to give the Illini a five-point lead and momentum they would hold most of the rest of the half. When Kohler checked out, with MSU down 15-8, Tom Izzo got into him. Kohler, breathing hard, like he’d just played in a more intense setting than he’d seen in 10 months, tapped his chest and said, “It’s (on) me.”

I think we’ll see a lot of Kohler over the next two games — home Sunday against Rutgers and home next Thursday against Minnesota. I’d expect he’ll see 8-10 minutes in those games and have a chance to work himself back into a rhythm. And I think we’ll see some of the things he can provide this MSU team offensively.

Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on Twitter @Graham_Couch.

This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: Michigan State basketball falls 71-68 at Illinois: 3 quick takes