College football Week 13 winners and losers: A Saturday of scares leads to a still-muddy playoff picture

It was a Saturday of scares to end the 2023 college football regular season.

No. 2 Michigan held on to beat No. 3 Ohio State by six thanks to a late interception. No. 8 Alabama needed a miracle fourth-down conversion to avoid an upset by unranked Auburn. No. 4 Washington had to have a field goal as time expired to stay undefeated. No. 5 Florida State overcame a 12-0 deficit at Florida to move to 12-0.

Outside of No. 10 Louisville's loss to Kentucky, there weren't any surprising results at the top of the College Football Playoff rankings in Week 13. And that means the College Football Playoff picture is incredibly muddled with four undefeated teams and four teams with one loss at the top of the rankings. There's a lot to play for during conference championship weekend.

Who’s in the playoff no matter what?

No one: Would you bet your savings on any of the four remaining undefeated teams making the playoff with a loss? We certainly wouldn’t. The four-team playoff is in unprecedented territory in its final season given that eight teams have one loss or fewer entering conference championship weekend.

Who’s in with a win?

Georgia (12-0): The Bulldogs moved to 12-0 with a 31-23 win at Georgia Tech on Saturday night. Georgia wasn’t as dominant against the Yellow Jackets as it had been in recent weeks, but we’ll chalk that up to rivalry week and the looming SEC championship game matchup against Alabama.

Michigan (12-0): The Wolverines are in line for their third consecutive playoff appearance with a win over Iowa in the Big Ten title game. Michigan held on against Ohio State for — not coincidentally — a third straight win over the Buckeyes on Saturday and are three-TD favorites against the Hawkeyes. If there’s a team you can safely pencil into the playoff, it’s Michigan.

Washington (12-0): The Huskies denied Washington State the chance at a bowl game on Grady Gross’ walk-off field goal. Washington has been shaking in recent weeks, but the Huskies keep on winning much like TCU did a season ago. Now Washington has to get another win over Oregon to be 13-0 and make the playoff.

Florida State (12-0): The Seminoles passed their first test without injured QB Jordan Travis in a 24-15 win at Florida. It wasn't pretty; Tate Rodemaker threw for just 134 yards. But the FSU defense stepped up and RB Trey Benson had three touchdowns. The Seminoles should be a win away from their first playoff appearance since the first four-team iteration in 2014.

Oregon (11-1): The Ducks dominated Oregon State on Friday night and look to be the best team in the Pac-12 at the moment. Oregon is the only team with one loss in this group, but we’re confident that a win over a top-five Washington team will be enough for the Ducks to get into the playoff no matter what happens elsewhere in college football.

Who needs a win and some help?

Texas (11-1): The Longhorns were so good against Texas Tech on Friday night that Arch Manning saw his first game action of the season. Texas’ win over Alabama in Week 2 is why the Longhorns are ahead of the Crimson Tide in the playoff rankings and that could keep them in the playoff ahead of Alabama if both teams win their conference titles.

Alabama (11-1): The Crimson Tide were almost reduced to the role of playoff spoiler before Jalen Milroe found Isaiah Bond for the game-winning TD on a fourth down that will forever live on in Iron Bowl lore. Alabama has looked like a worthy challenger to Georgia in recent weeks and we’re fascinated to see how evenly matched the two teams are in Atlanta.

Who is on the sidelines and needs help?

Ohio State (11-1): The Buckeyes are in a tricky position. It’s hard to see Ohio State falling any lower than No. 6 after its loss to Michigan. But unlike every other team in the top eight, Ohio State won’t be playing on conference championship weekend. Sitting out the weekend could hurt the Buckeyes if teams like Alabama and Texas win. It could also help if Georgia, Washington, Oklahoma State and Louisville win.

Who’s out?

Louisville and every other two-loss team: The four-team playoff will disappear without a two-loss team ever making the postseason field. Louisville suffered its second loss of the season against Kentucky on Saturday and the Cardinals will likely tumble below the likes of Ole Miss and Penn State in the rankings.

Full conference championship slate

AAC

• SMU vs. Tulane (4 p.m. ET Saturday, ABC)

ACC

• Florida State vs. Louisville (8 p.m. ET Saturday, ABC)

Big Ten

• Michigan vs. Iowa (8 p.m. ET Saturday, Fox)

Big 12

• Texas vs. Oklahoma State (Noon ET Saturday, ABC)

Conference USA

• New Mexico State at Liberty (7 p.m. ET Friday, CBSSN)

MAC

• Toledo vs. Miami (Ohio) (Noon ET Saturday, ESPN)

Mountain West

• Two of UNLV, San Jose State and Boise State (3 p.m. ET Saturday, Fox)

*Computer rankings will determine the matchup between the three tied teams on Sunday. It’s likely to be UNLV vs. either Boise State or San Jose State.

Pac-12

• Oregon vs. Washington (8 p.m. ET Friday, ABC)

SEC

• Alabama vs. Georgia (4 p.m. ET Saturday, CBS)

Sun Belt

• Troy vs. Appalachian State (4 p.m. ET Saturday, ESPN)

Winners

Oregon, Texas and Alabama: The one-loss teams still in the mix for a CFP berth all survived this weekend. For Oregon and Texas, it came in emphatic fashion. On Friday night, Oregon smashed Oregon State 31-7 to earn a spot in the Pac-12 title game and Texas destroyed Texas Tech 57-7 to clinch its place in the Big 12 title game. For Alabama, things were a little more difficult. The Crimson Tide shocked Auburn by scoring on fourth-and-goal from the 31-yard line with 32 seconds to play. Jalen Milroe’s dime to Isaiah Bond kept Alabama’s CFP hopes alive in truly improbable fashion.

Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels: The Heisman Trophy race seems to be down to two. Washington’s Michael Penix had an uneven performance in UW’s narrow victory over Washington State, but the two other QBs atop the Heisman odds board put together stellar performances. LSU’s Jayden Daniels threw for 235 yards and four TDs and added 120 rushing yards in a come-from-behind 42-30 win over Texas A&M. Oregon’s Bo Nix completed 33-of-40 throws for 367 yards and two TDs with a rushing TD. At the time of this writing, Nix is the -135 favorite for the Heisman at BetMGM. Daniels is close behind at +110 and Penix has fallen to +1300.

Oklahoma State: It took an 18-point comeback, two overtimes and five rushing TDs by Ollie Gordon, but Oklahoma State was able to clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game. The Cowboys fell behind BYU 24-6 at halftime, but rallied all the way back to take the 27-24 lead with 53 seconds to play. BYU was able to send the game to OT, but the Cowboys eventually emerged thanks to a great individual effort by Trey Rucker, who stripped the ball from BYU’s Isaac Rex to seal the 40-34 win. After a 2-2 start, OSU is now 9-3 and has the chance to pull off a major upset over Texas in the Big 12 title game.

Ole Miss and Missouri: Entering the season, who projected 10-win seasons from Ole Miss and Missouri? Ole Miss beat Mississippi State on Thursday night in the Egg Bowl to get to 10-2 for the second time in Lane Kiffin’s four seasons on the job. The Rebels’ only two losses of the season came on the road to Alabama and Georgia, the two teams in the SEC title game. And for Missouri, the Tigers got to 10-2 with a blowout win over Arkansas on Friday. The Tigers hadn’t had a winning record under Eli Drinkwitz before this season, but he has Mizzou likely headed for a New Year’s Six bowl.

Iowa: Speaking of a 10-win season, we have to give some credit to Iowa. The Hawkeyes are literally dead last in the country in total offense but managed to go 10-2 and win the Big Ten West. Sure, the Big Ten West doesn’t have very good competition but it’s remarkable how Iowa finds ways to win games with defense, special teams and sound situational football. Friday’s wild win over Nebraska may not have been the best example of that, but it wrapped up the third 10-win season in the last five years.

Old Dominion: ODU clinched bowl eligibility in remarkable fashion. The Monarchs trailed Georgia State 24-14 in the final minutes of regulation but managed to kick a field goal, get a safety and score a TD as time expired to win 25-24. The field goal came with 1:37 to play to cut the deficit to 24-17 and then ODU had some good fortune. An errant snap resulted in a safety, which gave the ball back to the Monarchs with the score 24-19. From there, Grant Wilson plunged in from three yards out on fourth-and-goal to get ODU to its sixth win of the season.

Tulane and SMU: The AAC title game will feature an excellent matchup with No. 23 Tulane hosting SMU. Both teams capped off perfect 8-0 records in AAC play with wins this weekend. A spot in the league title game was on the line on Friday, and Tulane put together a convincing 29-16 victory over UTSA. And then on Saturday, SMU posted a 59-14 blowout win over Navy. Tulane is 11-1 and SMU is 10-2. The winner of next week’s game could end up earning the Group of Five spot in a New Year’s Six bowl.

Liberty: If that coveted New Year’s Six bowl spot doesn’t go to the AAC champion, it could go to No. 25 Liberty. The Flames beat UTEP 42-28 on Saturday to finish out the regular season with a 12-0 record in Jamey Chadwell’s first year on the job. If the Flames beat New Mexico State in the Conference USA title game, they could get the invitation to a big bowl game if SMU beats Tulane.

San Jose State: Improbably, San Jose State could play for the Mountain West title. After a 1-5 start, SJSU has now won six consecutive games. Saturday’s road upset over UNLV set up a three-way tie in the Mountain West with SJSU, UNLV and Boise State. The participants of the MWC title game will be determined by computer rankings and announced on Sunday.

Eastern Michigan, Louisiana, Marshall, Northern Illinois, Old Dominion, Rice, South Florida, Syracuse, UCF, Utah State, Virginia Tech, Cal: These teams all reached their sixth victory this weekend to clinch bowl eligibility.

Losers

Ohio State: For the third consecutive season, Ohio State came up short in the biggest game of the season. The Buckeyes lost again to Michigan, handing the Big Ten East to the Wolverines. The last two seasons were blowouts, but this one — a 30-24 loss in Ann Arbor — didn’t sting any less. Ohio State had a chance to score the winning TD in the final minute, but Kyle McCord was intercepted. It was his second INT of the game; the first set up UM’s first TD of the game. The second may have ended OSU’s chances of getting to the CFP. It was another brutal loss for coach Ryan Day, who is 1-3 vs. Michigan and 40-0 vs. the rest of the Big Ten.

Louisville: Louisville’s CFP hopes were dashed at the hands of rival Kentucky. The Cardinals were 10-1 and ranked No. 10 entering the weekend. They had a 24-14 second-half lead at home, but proceeded to blow that lead with a series of mistakes — two costly fumbles, a turnover on downs and an interception — in a 38-31 loss. The fumbles came on consecutive possessions, allowing Kentucky to flip a 24-21 deficit into a 31-24 lead. Louisville later tied the game before allowing the game-winning 37-yard TD run from Ray Davis with 1:02 to play. An interception from Jack Plummer then ended the game.

North Carolina: UNC collapsed for the second straight season. Last year, UNC started the season 9-1 before losing its final four games to finish 9-5. This year, UNC started 6-0 and then lost four of its final six to finish the regular season at 8-4. The two wins in the second half were over an FCS team and then a 47-45 double-OT victory over a Duke team down to its third-string QB. UNC lost 39-20 to NC State on Saturday for its third straight loss to the rival Wolfpack. UNC’s defense has been horrific the last two seasons, wasting the presence of Drake Maye, a likely first-round pick at QB.

TCU: TCU went from making the national championship game to missing a bowl game. The Horned Frogs had a magical season in 2022 as they went 12-0 with five one-score wins and then upset Michigan 51-45 in the CFP semifinals. Things went much differently this time around. The 2023 season started with a loss to Deion Sanders and Colorado. Later on, TCU got to 4-3 and needed to win two of its final five to get to a bowl game. Instead, TCU lost four of five, including Friday’s 69-45 blowout to Oklahoma, and finished 5-7.

Nebraska: Nebraska just needed to win one of its last four games to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2016. The Huskers, after an 0-2 start, won five of their next six games but then proceeded to lose four straight down the stretch by a combined margin of 16 points. They lost 20-17 to Michigan State, 13-10 to Maryland, 24-17 to Wisconsin in overtime and then dropped a 13-10 heartbreaker to Iowa on Friday. Nebraska had the ball with the chance to win the game in the final minutes, but Chubba Purdy threw a costly interception that set up Iowa’s game-winning field goal.

Baylor: Baylor had an absolutely miserable season. The Bears finished 3-9 with a heartbreaking 34-31 loss on Saturday to West Virginia. BU had a chance to take a 34-27 lead with a 32-yard field goal with just 1:14 remaining, but Isaiah Hankins’ try missed to leave the advantage at 31-27. The miss was costly. After regaining possession, WVU drove 80 yards in six plays and scored the game-winning TD. Baylor closed the season with five consecutive losses and hasn’t defeated an FBS opponent at home since Oct. 22, 2022.

Air Force: After beating Colorado State on Oct. 28, Air Force was sitting pretty in the Mountain West. The Falcons were 8-0 overall, 5-0 in Mountain West play and ranked No. 25 in the country. But then the season disintegrated with a turnover-filled loss to Army. The following week, Air Force lost as a huge favorite to Hawaii and saw star QB Zac Larrier aggravate a pre-existing injury. Larrier hasn’t played since and the Falcons ended up losing their last four games and missing out on the Mountain West title game altogether thanks to Friday’s 27-19 loss to Boise State.

BYU, Central Michigan, Florida, Illinois, Minnesota, Mississippi State, Navy, Nebraska, South Carolina, TCU, Washington State, Colorado State: These teams all had a chance to reach bowl eligibility this weekend, but were unable to do so.