College football Week 12 picks: Louisville vs Miami, Kentucky vs South Carolina, more
If the Courier Journal sports staff's season-long college football predictions were a horse race, columnist C.L. Brown just took the lead entering the home stretch.
After an 11-week run at the top of the standings for sports director Natalie Pierre, Brown surged ahead thanks to a 5-0 record last week. Brown has sported a perfect record each of the past two weeks. But to show the chasm that exists between first and last place in the staff picks, U of L men's basketball beat reporter Brooks Holton also has gone 10-0 the past two weeks.
Yet it hasn't helped Holton climb out of the basement of the seven-member pickin' panel.
Unlike previous weeks in which the CJ staff prognosticated wins for Kentucky or Louisville across the board, Week 12 is different: Both games, U of L at Miami and UK at South Carolina, have the pickers split, 4-3. Elsewhere, Eastern Kentucky and Western Kentucky prepare for their final home games of the 2023 campaign, and a rematch of last season's ACC title game is at hand with Clemson hosting North Carolina.
Here's a look at this week's picks. As is our custom, predictions are straight up winners and losers (not against the spread), with rankings based on the latest US LBM Coaches Poll. All times listed are ET.
No. 9 Louisville at Miami
How to watch: Noon Saturday, ABC
The picks: Four for Miami, three for Louisville (Alexis Cubit, Brooks Holton, Natalie Pierre)
For Louisville to get something it's never had (a spot in the ACC championship game), it must be willing to do something it's never done (beat Miami on the road for the first time). The Cardinals have come up big in clutch moments: They are 4-0 in one-possession games (contests decided by seven points or less) this season. It'll be a test of strength on strength when the Cardinals' offense is on the field against the Hurricanes' defense. Miami has the best run defense in the ACC, allowing only 86 yards per game, while Louisville running back Jawhar Jordan ranks among the top three in the league in total rushing yards (976; second), rushing yards per game (97.6; second), rushing touchdowns (11; third) and yards per carry (6.92; first).
Kentucky at South Carolina
How to watch: 7:30 p.m. Saturday, SEC Network
The picks: Four for Kentucky, three for South Carolina (Lucas Aulbach, Cubit, Jason Frakes)
This game means far more to South Carolina than Kentucky. The Gamecocks have to win this week and fell in-state rival Clemson to reach the six victories needed for bowl eligibility; the Wildcats, at 6-4, have no such worries. Though South Carolina upset a ranked UK squad in Lexington last season — Kentucky's starting quarterback, Will Levis, sat out with a foot injury — it's the Wildcats who have dominated this rivalry for the past decade. Mark Stoops, who became UK's coach prior to the 2013 season, is 7-3 versus South Carolina.
Sam Houston at Western Kentucky
How to watch: 3:30 p.m. Saturday, ESPN+
The picks: Six for Western Kentucky, one for Sam Houston (Cubit)
After dropping eight straight games to start the season, Sam Houston has pulled itself on the mat to win back-to-back outings. But Western Kentucky is better than Louisiana Tech or Kennesaw State, the two opponents Sam Houston just beat. Against a Bearkat team giving up seven more points per game than it scores (19.4 to 26.6), and on senior day in Bowling Green, and needing one win to seal a bowl berth, Saturday would be a bad loss for WKU. Oddsmakers agree, as they have the Hilltoppers as 12-point favorites at home, according to the DraftKings college football odds.
Stephen F. Austin at Eastern Kentucky
How to watch: 2 p.m. Saturday, ESPN+
The picks: Six for Eastern Kentucky, one for Stephen F. Austin (Cubit)
Eastern Kentucky is two games under .500 (4-6) and enters this, its regular-season finale, on a two-game skid. That's nothing compared with Stephen F. Austin, though. The Lumberjacks are 3-7 overall, 0-5 in conference play and on a five-game losing streak. SFA hasn't won since topping Texas A&M-Commerce on Sept. 30. Though his final college season hasn't gone the way he'd hoped, EKU signal caller Parker McKinney hopes to end his career on a high note; McKinney has thrown for 2,776 yards and 19 touchdowns (against 12 interceptions) on 240-of-381 passing (63.0%) this fall.
No. 20 North Carolina at Clemson
How to watch: 3:30 p.m. Saturday, ESPN
The picks: Five for Clemson, two for North Carolina (Ryan Black, Holton)
Clemson's 2023 season is a far cry from previous campaigns, when it was competing for, and winning, national championships. This fall, the Tigers are 6-4 overall and 3-4 in the ACC. Even if they win out (two regular-season contests and a bowl game), that only gets them to nine victories this fall, snapping a 12-year run of 10-win seasons. And if Clemson doesn't beat UNC, it means the Tigers will finish with a sub-.500 conference mark for the first time since going 1-7 in 1998.
But they've played their best football of the season in the past two games, dispatching Notre Dame and Georgia Tech in back-to-back home games. Clemson faces a North Carolina squad that has to win to keep its slim hopes of an ACC title game alive. Speaking of the league's championship tilt, that's the last time the Tigers and Tar Heels squared off: Clemson rolled to a 39-10 victory in Charlotte, North Carolina, last December. The key matchup: UNC field general Drake Maye — he's No. 1 or 2 in the conference in every major passing category — vs. a Clemson defense that leads the ACC (and ranks No. 5 nationally) in pass efficiency defense.
The standings
1 - C.L. Brown, 46-9 (last week 5-0)
2 - Natalie Pierre, 45-10 (last week 4-1)
3 - Ryan Black, 42-13 (last week 4-1)
4 (tie) - Lucas Aulbach, 38-17 (last week 3-2)
4 (tie) - Alexis Cubit, 38-17 (last week 4-1)
4 (tie) - Jason Frakes, 38-17 (last week 4-1)
7 - Brooks Holton, 37-18 (last week 5-0)
This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Louisville vs Miami prediction, Kentucky vs S. Carolina picks, WKU-SHSU
