The College Football Playoff field will be decided by these games down the stretch

It’s hard to believe, but we’ve reached the final three weeks of the college football regular season.

At this point in the season, the College Football Playoff picture normally starts to crystalize. This year has been no different.

There are five remaining undefeated Power Five teams (No. 1 Ohio State, No. 2 Michigan, No. 3 Georgia, No. 4 Florida State and No. 5 Washington) and six others with only one loss (No. 6 Oregon, No. 7 Texas, No. 8 Alabama, No. 9 Penn State, No. 10 Ole Miss and No. 11 Louisville).

It’s the final season of the four-team playoff era, and a two-loss team has never earned a spot in the field. The margin for error is extremely thin and one game can alter a team’s entire season.

Looking ahead, these are the games that will ultimately decide the CFP field.

Week 11

No. 3 Michigan at No. 10 Penn State: Penn State needs to win this game to keep its playoff hopes alive. The Nittany Lions already lost at Ohio State, but this would be one of the best wins of the season for any team and could bring forth the possibility of the three-team tie atop the Big Ten East if Michigan beats Ohio State in Ann Arbor in the final weekend of the regular season. It’s a bit premature to dive into the Big Ten’s tiebreaker scenarios, but PSU could play its way into the Big Ten title game. And if Penn State wins, it turns the Ohio State game into a must-win for the Wolverines.

No. 9 Ole Miss at No. 2 Georgia: A road win over Georgia would obviously hold a ton of weight but the best path to the CFP for Ole Miss would be to win out and hope Alabama slips up somewhere before the end of the regular season. The Rebels have a head-to-head loss to Alabama and Alabama’s only loss came in the non-conference, so the Crimson Tide would still have the inside track to the SEC title game. For Georgia, a loss to Ole Miss would cause a fall in the rankings (especially if the other undefeated teams all win) but it wouldn’t be an insurmountable hurdle to get into the top four.

USC at No. 6 Oregon: Oregon just needs to keep on winning. Oregon’s only loss is to Washington on the road. If the Ducks win the remainder of their regular season games, beginning with this weekend at home vs. USC, they will likely get a rematch with Washington in the Pac-12 title game. A 12-1 conference champion that turns around and beats the team it previously lost to would be hard to keep out of the final four. But the Ducks cannot afford another loss.

No. 18 Utah at No. 5 Washington: Washington is undefeated but doesn’t want to even open the door for any scrutiny with a loss to a tough Utah team that has dealt with a lot of injuries this season. The Huskies are the lowest-ranked of the five undefeated teams, but will be able to move up based on the results of others. If Washington loses, it opens up more feasible paths for other teams to reach the Pac-12 championship game.

Miami at No. 4 Florida State: Miami can play the role of spoiler this week against No. 4 Florida State and next week against No. 11 Louisville.

No. 8 Alabama at Kentucky: Two of Alabama’s last three games are on the road, this weekend at Kentucky and then the Iron Bowl against Auburn on Nov. 25.

Week 12

No. 3 Georgia at No. 13 Tennessee: If Georgia beats Ole Miss this weekend, it has another difficult game to get through in Week 12 in Knoxville. Tennessee isn’t as good as it was last season, but it can knock Georgia off its course and turn the SEC title game — likely against Alabama — into a must-win for the Bulldogs.

No. 5 Washington at No. 12 Oregon State: Oregon State will play a big role in determining the final CFP rankings. Before going to Eugene to face rival Oregon in the regular season finale, the Beavers will host No. 5 Washington. If the Huskies beat Utah in Week 11, they can clinch a spot in the Pac-12 title game with a win in Corvallis. But if Oregon State wins out, OSU will get to the conference title game.

No. 7 Texas at Iowa State: Texas just needs to keep winning, but its upcoming opponents would love to play spoiler before the Longhorns exit the Big 12 for the SEC. A trip to Ames won’t be easy, especially with Iowa State still in the mix for a spot in the Big 12 title game. If Iowa State takes care of BYU this weekend, the Cyclones will have plenty to play for with UT coming to town.

Minnesota at No. 1 Ohio State: Assuming OSU takes care of Michigan State this weekend, the Minnesota game is the ultimate lookahead spot with the trip to Ann Arbor looming.

No. 3 Michigan at Maryland: The same goes for Michigan. Maryland has had a disappointing season but a road trip before the Ohio State game can be dangerous.

No. 11 Louisville at Miami: Louisville lost to Pitt, so its CFP chances are already remote. UL’s only path to the conversation is winning out, capped off by an ACC title game win over FSU.

Week 13

No. 3 Ohio State at No. 2 Michigan: If these teams are both undefeated when they square off again, the winner is pretty much a lock to get to the playoff. The Big Ten West opponent won’t provide much resistance for whoever wins, leaving the loser reeling and hoping to crack the field at 11-1 like Ohio State did last year. The scenario changes, of course, if Penn State hands Michigan a loss this weekend.

No. 4 Florida State at Florida: Florida’s closing stretch is brutal, with road games against LSU and Missouri before hosting FSU in the season finale. UF could be trying for bowl eligibility while also trying to hurt FSU’s CFP case. The Seminoles already have a spot in the ACC championship, but the strength of schedule provided by their conference schedule hasn’t been doing them many favors. Losing to a mediocre Florida team would not help that cause either.

No. 12 Oregon State at No. 6 Oregon: Imagine the drama here if Oregon State beats Washington. The Beavers, before the Pac-12 essentially dissolves, would have a chance to clinch a spot in the conference title game while also knocking its biggest rival out of national championship contention, provided Oregon beats USC and Arizona State the prior two weeks.

No. 8 Alabama at Auburn: Alabama clinches a spot in the SEC title game with a win over Kentucky this weekend, but Auburn has the chance to ruin the Tide’s CFP hopes with an Iron Bowl upset.

No. 9 Ole Miss at Mississippi State: If Ole Miss upsets Georgia and doesn’t slip up vs. UL Monroe, the Egg Bowl could have legitimate CFP implications. Imagine how crazy that game would be.

Texas Tech at No. 7 Texas: Texas Tech would be next in line for the Big 12 holdovers trying to ruin Texas’ national title hopes.

Washington State at No. 5 Washington: WSU, in conference limbo alongside Oregon State, is in free-fall right now but can salvage its season by upsetting rival Washington in the Apple Cup.