College football odds: 4 games to dial in on during an action-packed Saturday

It’s Week 4 of the college football season. We can wave goodbye to all the lopsided non-conference matchups, because now the real competition begins. Conference schedules heat up this week, providing bettors with plenty of high-profile matchups to wager on. Before we dive headfirst into all the exciting matchups, let’s not forget some of the biggest storylines that unfolded in Week 3.

Colorado finally didn’t cover the spread despite their dramatic comeback double-overtime victory. Alabama has a serious problem at quarterback. Tyler Buchner completed only 5 of 14 passes, while the pressure continued to build on new offensive coordinator Tommy Rees. Lastly, Washington Huskies QB Michael Penix Jr. has entered the chat in regards to the Heisman race. Penix Jr. throttled the Michigan State secondary for 473 yards and four touchdowns. His odds have compressed to +600 to win the award, trailing only last year’s winner, USC QB Caleb Williams.

I can’t wait for the next chapter of the season to unfold on Saturday. Here’s my betting breakdown for the four games that I am anticipating the most.

Florida State -2.5 at Clemson

Clemson is not coming back y’all. The ship has sailed, or maybe it’s just in the transfer portal, but Dabo Swinney is not getting it back either way. College football games are won and lost with explosive plays, and there is a massive difference in the rate that these two offenses generate them. The Seminoles will stretch the Clemson defense with their formidable pair of wideouts. Johnny Wilson averages 19 yards per completion while his counterpart, Keon Coleman, has already popped for four touchdowns this season. It’s hard to believe we are laying points in Death Valley, but bettors should know the Tigers only covered in 44% of games at home since the beginning of last year. Bet: Florida State -2.5

Colorado +20.5 at Oregon

It will be fascinating to see if Colorado takes public money closer to kickoff. They were listed as 14.5-point underdogs at certain sportsbooks prior to their double-OT victory last week. Now, everything has changed with Travis Hunter out, especially on defense. The odds reflect the uphill climb Colorado faces without its star two-way player, as the Buffaloes have ballooned to almost three-touchdown dogs. It’s unfortunate we don’t get Colorado at full strength, but the line move is still short in my opinion. Since Dan Lanning's arrival last season, Oregon is tied for the second-best ATS win percentage at home (85.7%) and has beaten teams by an average margin of 28.3 points in those home games. The Ducks also beat the spread by an average of 9.3 points, leading me to believe the market hasn’t caught up to the Ducks’ dominance at home. Let’s grab the 20.5 now while it's still there. Bet: Oregon -20.5

Mississippi +7 at Alabama

Times are changing in Tuscaloosa. I can’t in good faith recommend laying seven points with Alabama when they don’t have any answers at quarterback. In the age of the transfer portal, I’m not exactly sure how Alabama got here, but we have to bet accordingly. Ole Miss has some holes in the secondary, but Bama doesn’t have the deep passing game to make them pay. The Rebels will clearly have the best quarterback on the field with Jaxson Dart, who has thrown for 852 yards and seven touchdowns with only one interception. The Rebels' passing attack is fourth in EPA per play, while the Crimson Tide clock in at 99th. Ole Miss went into the fourth quarter tied last year in Oxford. I am betting Lane Kiffin gets the job this time. Bet: Mississippi +7

Ohio St. -3 at Notre Dame

This game will be decided by whichever quarterback handles the opposing pass rush more effectively, and my money is on Sam Hartman. Both defenses will have relative success bending but not breaking, so the under 55.5 might be worth a look as well. Audric Estime will have to earn every yard the hard way for the Irish on the ground. The Buckeyes defense ranks 13th in opponent rushing success rate, and it's tied for first in yards per play allowed (3.4). The key for Notre Dame is in the secondary. Nobody is going to blanket Marvin Harrison Jr., but if they can hold their own, the pass rush will get to OSU QB Kyle McCord. If this one was at the Horseshoe, I’d be more open to banking on McCord. With the Irish playing in front of the home crowd in South Bend, I’m betting Hartman makes the high-leverage plays down the stretch. Bet: Notre Dame +3

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