College football: What can we expect from Duke vs. Florida State

The 5-1 Duke Blue Devils head to Tallahassee to face the 6-0 Florida State Seminoles. Both squads, along with the North Carolina Tar Heels, are undefeated in ACC conference play, so this matchup holds major significance halfway into the season.

A few weeks ago, this game looked much more appealing, but Duke quarterback Riley Leonard was sidelined with an ankle injury after the loss to Notre Dame. Leonard was, however, an active participant in practice Tuesday. In one radio interview Wednesday, head coach Mike Elko said there “was a chance” Leonard could play Saturday. With no updates since, consider Leonard day-to-day.

Having Leonard on the field gives Duke an opportunity to be competitive against the 'Noles. However, if Leonard sits, one thing is more probable: That this matchup will be a low-scoring, defensive affair.

Duke’s offense

The Blue Devils got the job done in a 24-3 win over NC State, but it wasn’t because of the offense, with backup quarterback Henry Belin IV throwing an interception on the opening drive. Belin finished the day 4-of-12 passing with 28 rushing yards on five attempts. So having Leonard is crucial for Duke to have success against Florida State.

The athleticism Leonard showcases as a mobile quarter is uncanny. Among all qualified quarterbacks (minimum 20 rushing attempts), Leonard leads in yards after contact per attempt. His rushing efficiency has been the difference in the Blue Devils' offense.

If Belin plays, Duke will rely on its running backs. That’s a scary prospect, considering lead RB Jordan Waters graded 153 out of 199 backs nationally. He’s been far less efficient than Leonard, though he does lead the team in rushing yards and carries. Waters is outside the top 70 in yards after contact and missed tackles and outside the top 40 in running plays gaining 10 or more yards.

Florida State rushing defense

Florida State’s defense in three home games has given up just two rushing scores.

The question becomes, can Duke get downfield and give Waters an opportunity to score? With Leonard, possibly. FSU faced one of the country's most dynamic quarterbacks in Jayden Daniels of LSU and held him to 64 yards rushing, with 40 coming off a single play in the second quarter. Is Leonard healthy enough to break one off? I don’t expect Belin to have the same capability, nor do I expect Waters to produce explosive designed runs. Five of Waters' eight runs of 15 or more yards were against Lafayette and Northwestern.

Duke defense needs to carry the team. Can it?

With a limited offense against a good Florida State defense, Duke's defense will need to take control like it did against NC State, when it had an interception and forced six punts on 12 drives and three turnovers on downs. However, this is undefeated No. 4 Florida State, not 4-3 NC State. The Blue Devils have yet to face a receiver like Keon Coleman. He has acceleration with exceptional ball skills. Six of his seven receiving touchdowns have come from just 11 targets with zero drops this season.

If the passing game isn’t there for the ‘Noles, FSU can turn to RB Trey Benson. The Seminoles are top 15 in run blocking, and Duke did struggle to defend Notre Dame’s Audric Estime, allowing two rushing scores and 5 yards per carry to the Fighting Irish.

With a top-30 pass rush, balanced offense and a solid red-zone defense, Florida State will move to 7-0 for the first time since 2014, when they made the College Football Playoff. With back-to-back road games on deck, FSU will look to keep its players as healthy as possible.

With or without Leonard, my betting suggestion is under 49. Having Leonard gives Duke an opportunity to keep it on the ground and control time of possession. Without Leonard, Duke's offense will struggle to get downfield and turn drives into touchdowns.