College Football Betting Preview Week 2: KU Jayhawks on win streak against the spread

There was a point last season when the Kansas football team was performing so poorly against the spread that our Jesse Newell wrote about how the Jayhawks were on the verge of making betting history for all the wrong reasons if they didn’t turn things around.

It was a great story and I would recommend giving it a read if you missed it last year.

More than anything, it shows how much the Jayhawks have improved under coach Lance Leipold since then. KU went 1-7-1 against the spread in 2020 and then started last season 0-6. It seemed like no betting line was big enough for Kansas. But then it surprisingly covered against Oklahoma, albeit in a 35-23 defeat, and then it closed out the season with three straight covers that included an outright win at Texas.

Add in a resounding 56-10 victory over Tennessee Tech in last week’s season-opener and the Jayhawks have covered ... gasp ... in four straight games. They are red hot.

This development begs the question: Is KU football worth betting money on this week?

The Jayhawks are 13.5-point underdogs on the road against West Virginia on Saturday. It’s the first time they have been underdogs of fewer than 14 points in a Big 12 game since 2019.

Personally, I would feel more confident in KU if the line moves to 14.5, but this very well could be enough points already. Kansas hasn’t lost a conference game by double digits since falling to K-State 35-10 last November. Its last three Big 12 games have all been decided by one score.

KU played West Virginia in the regular-season finale of 2021 and the Mountaineers won 34-28. They started this season by pushing Pittsburgh on the road before losing 38-31.

At some point, Kansas’ hot streak against the spread is going to end. But oddsmakers might also be slow to adjust to their sudden improvement.

The Jayhawks aren’t a terrible bet anymore.

Betting line drops in K-State/Mizzou game

Kansas State opened the week as a 9.5-point favorite against Missouri. Good luck finding that number today.

Most sites now have the Wildcats favored by only 7.5. The over/under has also climbed from 54.5 to 57.5.

That means most bettors thus far seem to think the Tigers are poised to make this a close game in which both teams put up some points.

There isn’t a huge difference between 7.5 and 9.5. The line dropping below seven or above 10 would be a bigger deal. But the line movement is still worth noting.

Best and worst teams nationally against the spread

There are only two teams in all of college football with a 2-0 record against the spread: Connecticut and Nevada.

But six teams are on the other end of the spectrum at 0-2. They are: Charlotte, Hawaii, Nebraska, New Mexico State, Utah State and UTEP.

As fate would have it, UTEP hosts New Mexico State on Saturday. The Miners are favored by 16 if you’re interested.

Hot start for Big 12

Big 12 teams came through for bettors in Week 1.

The conference is off to a 9-1 start against the spread. The only loss could be described as a bad beat. Oklahoma State raced to a massive 44-15 lead at halftime and then surrendered a backdoor cover against Central Michigan in garbage time.

We already discussed KU at West Virginia and Mizzou at K-State. Here are the other lines from around the conference.

• Alabama (-20) at Texas: The Longhorns are rarely big underdogs at home.

• Iowa State (+3.5) at Iowa: Is this finally the year that Matt Campbell beats Iowa?

• Houston (+3) at Texas Tech: The Red Raiders are going for a two-year sweep against the Cougars.

• Kent State (+32) at Oklahoma: Can the Sooners cover another 30-point spread at home?

• Arizona State (+11) at Oklahoma State: The Cowboys were all offense, no defense in their opener.

• Tarleton State (+37) at TCU: The Horned Frogs rolled in their opener at Colorado.

• Baylor (+3) at BYU: The game of the day and a preview of what to expect from the future Big 12.

Fascinating odds

• Hawaii seems like an excellent team to bet against right now. The Rainbow Warriors opened the season with some horrific home losses to Vanderbilt (63-10) and then Western Kentucky (49-17). Now that they are leaving the islands to play at Michigan, another beat down is almost certainly on the way. No one seems to think otherwise, because Hawaii is a 52-point underdog.

• Pittsburgh (+6.5) is getting nearly a touchdown at home against Tennessee. The opening line was only three.

• Wake Forest (-12.5) got some welcome news at quarterback this week. Sam Hartman is returning to play against Vanderbilt. The Demon Deacons were only favored by six before that news broke.

• The highest over/under of the week is 73 for Kent State at Oklahoma.

• The lowest over/under of the week is 40 for Iowa State at Iowa.

My favorite bets in Week 2

My picks are off to a slow start this season thanks in large part to Illinois choking away a game it absolutely should have won against Indiana. Oh well. Week 2 will be better.

Iowa State at Iowa Over/Under of 40: We all had fun laughing at Iowa last week. The Hawkeyes defeated South Dakota State 7-3 without scoring a single touchdown. That’s right, they reached seven points on a field goal and two safeties. Iowa looked so out of sorts on offense that everyone wants to bet the under on the CyHawk Game this week. I think that is an overreaction. Iowa is going to want to prove to the world it can score at least a little in this rivalry game and the Cyclones put up 42 in their opener. It won’t be a shootout, but even a 21-20 slugfest would be enough to go over here.

Pick: Over.

Appalachian State (+19.5) at Texas A&M: The Mountaineers are coming off an emotionally draining 63-61 home loss against North Carolina. I am skeptical they can pick themselves up off the mat a week later and give Texas A&M a game on the road.

Pick: Texas A&M.

Kent State (+32) at Oklahoma: Good teams overwhelming covered big spreads when they were playing at home against FCS teams and bottom-feeder FBS opponents in Week 1. I expect that trend to continue in Week 2. The Sooners covered a similar spread to this last week against UTEP.

Pick: Oklahoma.

San Jose State (+22) at Auburn: Same story as above. San Jose State struggled to beat FCS Portland State in its home opener 21-17. It will be a long night for them at Auburn, which pummeled Mercer 42-6 last week.

Pick: Auburn.

Kentucky (+6) at Florida: The days of Florida owning Kentucky are over. The Cats have won two of the last four meetings in this series and are 4-0-1 against the spread in the last five. The Gators admittedly looked great beating Utah at home last week. But I would argue Kentucky is just as good as Utah. I’m tempted to suggest betting Kentucky for the outright win here. But six points is a nice cushion.

Pick: Kentucky.

Last week: 1-3-1.

Overall: 1-3-1.