College Football Betting Preview: Best bets, teams to trust against spread in Week 1
A few years ago, I overlooked an important detail when I predicted Kansas State would open the 2020 football season with a comfortable win (and cover) against Arkansas State.
The Red Wolves were coming off a 37-24 loss at Memphis the week before, and the Wildcats were able to watch every second of that game because they were still waiting for their season to begin. K-State was favored by 13. Chris Klieman’s team was coming off an 8-5 campaign. I picked the Cats to win by two touchdowns.
What I didn’t realize until afterward, when several K-State players and coaches complained about it, was that college football teams tend to make huge improvements between Game 1 and Game 2. Arkansas State had a sneaky advantage because it had already played another opponent and figured out some key things to change before hopping on a plane for Manhattan.
K-State led 21-7 early in the second quarter, but Arkansas State rallied for a 35-31 upset. A day or two later, Klieman said he hoped to avoid scheduling teams that had already played in future openers.
But then, as fate would have it, the Wildcats turned around and beat Oklahoma 38-35 on the road in their following game. That result also came as a surprise. But maybe it shouldn’t have. Remember, the Wildcats were understandably a better team in Game 2 than they were in Game 1.
Perhaps we can now apply that lesson learned to this week’s slate of college football games as sports gambling becomes legal in the Sunflower State.
Here are a few of the best bets involving teams that played in Week 0.
Illinois +3 at Indiana
The wrong team could easily be favored in this game. Not only has Illinois already played, it looked very good beating Wyoming 38-6 last week. The Fighting Illini piled up 477 yards of offense and held the Cowboys to 212.
Indiana is the home team in this game, but the Hoosiers are coming off a 2-10 season in which they only twice covered the spread. Many picked them to finish last in the Big Ten East Division this year. Throw in the fact that Illinois was 7-4-1 against the spread last season, and I’m not seeing any reason why bettors should lack confidence in Bret Bielema’s team against an opponent that didn’t benefit from playing last week.
Pick: Illinois.
Texas State +1 at Nevada
The Wolf Pack were favored by 11 at one point in this matchup. I’m not sure why the spread has shifted so drastically in the past week, other than Nevada didn’t look very good while beating New Mexico State 23-12 last Saturday.
But a win is a win, and that result could greatly help Nevada as it looks to improve to 2-0 at home against an opponent that will be traveling nearly 1,800 miles for the game. Texas State only won four games last season and owns a 9-17 record under Jake Spavital.
ESPN college football statistician Bill Connelly projects Nevada to win 33-24 and gives the Wolf Pack a win percentage of 68%. There wasn’t much value here with the original spread, but Nevada can be trusted in a near pick-em scenario.
Pick: Nevada.
SMU -11.5 at North Texas
The Mean Green closed out last season with five straight regular-season wins to become bowl eligible and started this season with a 31-13 road victory over UTEP.
Much more is known about North Texas than SMU, which is trying to replace Sonny Dykes with new coach Rhett Lashlee. In the long run, the Mustangs figure to be the superior team. There is a reason why they are favored by double digits on the road. But North Texas is good enough to make things difficult for SMU in its opener.
Pick: North Texas.
Utah State +41 at Alabama
The Aggies had more trouble than most expected against Connecticut last week, only winning 31-20 as big favorites. Now they will hit the road as the biggest possible underdog against mighty Alabama.
While it’s true Utah State will benefit from having already played a game, it’s still hard to see the Aggies making this a competitive game. But that’s the beautiful thing about a point spread. It is the great equalizer. All Utah State needs to do in this situation is stay within 40 to cover.
Alabama has covered its last five games when it was favored by 35 or more, winning by a grand total of 237-27, according to ESPN “College GameDay” betting expert Chris Fallica (aka The Bear). If there is any team that can handle an opponent playing in Week 0, it’s the Crimson Tide. Then again, 41 is a lot of points.
Pick: Utah State.
Other games involving teams from Week 0
North Carolina at Appalachian State (pick em)
Florida Atlantic -4 at Ohio
Western Kentucky -16 at Hawaii
Tulsa - 6 at Wyoming
New Mexico State +36.5 at Minnesota
UTEP +31 at Oklahoma
Florida Atlantic and North Carolina both looked good in their openers. It’s entirely possible they keep that momentum going in their second games. But all the other teams lost so badly they probably aren’t worth trusting. If they go out and cover this week, there is definitely something to this whole playing in Week 0 thing.
One more best bet
Arizona +6 at San Diego State: The Wildcats went 6-6 against the spread last season, but they weren’t a good team and finished with a 1-11 record. They also lost to San Diego State at home 38-14. I’m not seeing an 18-point improvement in the road rematch. Connelly projects SDSU to win 31-15, the biggest deviation in his Week 1 database compared to the spread.
Pick: San Diego State.
FYI: I’m going to try and pick five games each week. You can keep track of my record ATS as the season goes on.
Missouri favored by 20 in opener
The only “local” college with a betting line (at the moment) in Week 1 is Missouri. The Tigers are favored by 20 points (with an over/under of 61.5) against Louisiana Tech in its first game of the season, while Kansas hosts Tennessee Tech on Friday and Kansas State opens against South Dakota on Saturday.
Betting lines for games involving FCS teams don’t usually come out until closer to kickoff time.
The Tigers only went 4-9 against the spread last season, so covering a 20-point spread might be a difficult task. Then again Louisiana Tech only went 4-7-1 against the spread.
It is unclear how much Sonny Cumbie will change things up for the Bulldogs in his first game as coach. Missouri won its opener last season 34-24 against Central Michigan.
Most fascinating lines of the week
Notre Dame +17 at Ohio State. This large of a spread is rare for a game between top 5 teams, especially when one of them is Notre Dame. It’s only happened three times since 1979, according to Fallica. The underdog covered all three times.
Georgia -17 vs. Oregon. Another huge spread for a game of highly ranked teams. The over/under might be the smart bet here. Remember when Clemson and Georgia played in the season-opener last year? The Bulldogs won, but the final score was 10-3.
Arizona +6 at San Diego State. SDSU is the only team from outside a power conference that is favored against a team from a power conference this week.
Boise State +3 at Oregon State. If you’re looking for an underdog to bet on with the money line, you could do a lot worse than the Broncos.
Tulsa at Wyoming has the lowest over/under of the week at 44.
SMU at North Texas has the highest over/under of the week at 70.
Around the Big 12
Central Michigan + 22 at Oklahoma State: The Chippewas once beat the Cowboys on a memorable last-second play at Boone Pickens Stadium.
West Virginia +7.5 at Pittsburgh: The Backyard Brawl is back!
TCU -14 at Colorado: This feels like a big spread for Sonny Dykes’ first game with the Frogs.
UTEP +31 at Oklahoma: UTEP head coach Dana Dimel and OU coach Brent Venables both have deep K-State ties.
Louisiana-Monroe +37 at Texas: The Longhorns get a tune-up before hosting Alabama.
