College football betting, odds: LSU vs. Florida State and other Week 1 point spreads that stand out
Believe it or not, we’re less than two months away from the start of the college football season.
Media days and preseason practices are right around the corner as we approach July. And with the season fast approaching, betting lines for both Week 0 and Week 1 are now widely available.
From the handful of Week 0 games through the end of Week 1 on Labor Day, there are more than 50 games to sort through, highlighted by the Sunday showdown between LSU and Florida State in Orlando.
These odds are sure to move in the coming weeks, some rather significantly, so we looked through them all to see what stands out and if there are any games worth betting right now.
LSU (-2.5) vs. Florida State
7:30 p.m. ET Sunday, Sept. 3 (Orlando)
This is the marquee game of the weekend, and it gets an exclusive viewing window Sunday night. These teams played a thriller in Week 1 last year, but there wasn’t the same level of expectation for the programs when the 2022 season began. LSU was beginning its first season under Brian Kelly, while FSU had a combined 8-13 record in its first two seasons under Mike Norvell.
This time around, both teams will likely enter the season ranked in the top 10, as LSU is coming off an SEC West title, and Florida State is trying to build off a 10-win campaign. Both programs have College Football Playoff aspirations and are deep on both sides of the ball.
The game is being played in Orlando. That’s a four-hour drive from Tallahassee, but with so many FSU alumni scattered throughout the state of Florida, FSU should have a nice home-field advantage.
That said, the spread being inside a field goal feels appropriate. Both teams have plenty of talent at the skill positions and along the lines of scrimmage. LSU’s defensive line is loaded, but FSU, after years of struggles, should finally have an above-average offensive line.
If there’s one position group I’m a bit worried about, it’s LSU’s cornerbacks. The Tigers are going to be relying on transfers and inexperienced underclassmen, and they’ll get a big test right out of the gate with Johnny Wilson and Michigan State transfer Keon Coleman lining up for FSU.
I don’t have a play right now, but my lean would be to take Florida State and the points — particularly if it moves to a field goal.
West Virginia at Penn State (-19.5)
7:30 p.m. ET Saturday, Sept. 2
Penn State has a lot of warranted hype going into the season. PSU is going to have one of the best defenses in the country, and the running back duo of Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen should help first-year starting quarterback Drew Allar ease into his new role.
On the WVU side, there’s a lot of pressure on head coach Neal Brown, who is just 22-25 in four seasons. WVU was pretty good on offense last year but had a bad defense. In 2023, it seems like there will be a shift on offense with offensive coordinator Graham Harrell — a disciple of the Air Raid — leaving for Purdue.
WVU’s starting QB will likely be Garrett Greene. Greene is a skilled runner but unproven passer. The receiver group will be completely different, but there’s some good depth at running back. It seems reasonable to assume the Mountaineers will lean on the ground attack in a difficult road environment at Beaver Stadium. The interior of PSU’s defensive line is a bit light, but I’m doubtful the WVU offensive line is good enough to exploit that.
With PSU breaking in a new quarterback, I’m not sure I want to lay nearly three touchdowns with a first-time starter. Perhaps an under play on West Virginia’s team total (those won’t be available until game week) could be worth a look.
Colorado at TCU (-20)
Noon ET Saturday, Sept. 2
TCU is the national runner-up, but the bigger storyline in this game is Deion Sanders’ debut as Colorado’s head coach. Coach Prime has completely revamped the Buffs’ roster via the transfer portal as he tries to rebuild what was the nation’s worst Power 5 team in 2022.
The overall talent of the Colorado roster is undeniably better. The improvements at the skill positions and in the secondary stand out. What worries me for Colorado is along the lines of scrimmage, particularly the offensive line. We saw TCU’s 3-3-5 defense give Michigan fits in last year’s CFP semifinals, and it certainly could do the same to the new-look Buffs.
On the TCU side, QB Max Duggan, WR Quentin Johnston and RB Kendre Miller are among the star players who departed to the NFL. The Horned Frogs also lost offensive coordinator Garrett Riley to Clemson. Sonny Dykes brought in Kendal Briles to call the offense, and Chandler Morris is set to take the reins as the starting QB. Morris actually beat Duggan for the starting job last season, but Duggan took over when Morris was injured in Week 1.
From the Colorado perspective, so many of the team's new players were summer arrivals. It’s hard to expect the Buffs to establish any sort of team chemistry this quickly. I expect CU to get a lot of public action because of the Coach Prime hype, but I won’t be part of it.
Florida at Utah (-9.5)
8 p.m. ET Thursday, Aug. 31
Expectations are quite low for Florida (the win total is just 5.5) as it enters its second season under coach Billy Napier. Anthony Richardson was a top-five NFL Draft pick, and now Wisconsin transfer Graham Mertz is expected to take the reins at quarterback after a rocky tenure in Madison. Napier’s teams at Louisiana relied on the running game, and without much talent at receiver and a clear downgrade at QB, it’s easy to see this year’s Florida team doing the same. But for that formula to be successful, the Gators’ incoming group of transfer offensive linemen needs to be ready to roll.
That won’t be an easy task with a Week 1 road trip to face Utah, the defending Pac-12 champions. Utah lost to the Gators last year in Gainesville and is hoping to return the favor. Utah has a lot of returning production on defense and is looking to be much better at defending the run in 2023. The Utes got pushed around up front in a few games last year (including vs. Florida) but improved as the season progressed.
Utah is nearly a double-digit favorite in this matchup, but I’d be leery to lay that many points without knowing the status of Utes quarterback Cam Rising. Rising suffered a serious knee injury in the Rose Bowl loss to Penn State. Will he be ready for Week 1? The options behind him are not all that promising, but the Utes have a stellar offensive line and strong group of running backs highlighted by Ja’Quinden Jackson.
Utah has a history of starting slowly, and I’m not as down on Florida as many others nationally. Still, I can’t envision myself putting money on the Gators playing in such a raucous environment — a night game at Rice-Eccles Stadium.
Nebraska at Minnesota (-7.5)
8 p.m. ET Thursday, Aug. 31
The Matt Rhule era at Nebraska will open with a road divisional game against Minnesota. Nebraska had five consecutive losing seasons under Scott Frost and has not had a winning record since 2016. During that span, the Huskers continually found ways to lose close games but now get a restart with Rhule running the show.
The Huskers will be better coached, but there are still a lot of concerns with this team. Georgia Tech transfer Jeff Sims is stepping in for Casey Thompson at quarterback, but there are questions about both the receiver group and the offensive line. The defense took a major step back from 2021 to 2022 and will be relying on a bunch of transfers in 2023.
On the other side, Minnesota will look different without Tanner Morgan at quarterback and Mo Ibrahim at running back. Ibrahim is a huge loss, considering the Gophers ran the ball nearly 70% of the time last fall, but Western Michigan transfer Sean Tyler should be an adequate replacement. Actually having some depth and talent at receiver will help the offense, too, as will the late-season experience new starting quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis received last fall after Morgan was injured.
For this matchup, Minnesota is rightly favored, but it’s not a game I’m looking to bet with the spread at 7.5. If it ticks under a TD, I'll consider the Gophers.
North Carolina (-1.5) vs. South Carolina
7:30 p.m. ET Saturday, Sept. 2 (Charlotte)
North Carolina returns Heisman Trophy candidate QB Drake Maye and adds a few intriguing transfers on offense (look out for ex-Kent State receiver Devontez Walker), but I still have major concerns about the Tar Heels defensively.
South Carolina finished last season with out-of-nowhere offensive explosions in wins over Tennessee and Clemson. Before that, the Gamecocks were quite anemic on offense, and it’s hard to know what to expect entering 2023 as the unit shifts to a different scheme under new offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains. Spencer Rattler returns at quarterback, and he has Juice Wells with him at receiver, but the offensive line is a concern. The Gamecocks also lost a lot on defense.
This is a tough one to handicap, but I trust Maye and the Tar Heels’ offense far more than I do Rattler and the Gamecocks. I have a slight lean to UNC.
Navy vs. Notre Dame (-19.5)
2:30 p.m. ET Saturday, Aug. 26 (Dublin, Ireland)
The Week 0 slate is rather uninspiring, but the first two teams to take the field in 2023 will be Notre Dame and Navy in Dublin, Ireland.
Notre Dame is currently a 19.5-point favorite as it enters its second season under Marcus Freeman. The Irish made a huge upgrade at quarterback by adding veteran Wake Forest transfer Sam Hartman, but there are still concerns about the team's collection of offensive weapons, particularly at receiver.
Navy is 11-23 combined over the past three seasons, and the administration decided to fire longtime coach Ken Niumatalolo and promote defensive coordinator Brian Newberry. Despite the coaching transition, this is a very experienced roster, especially on defense.
This point spread sat at 21 for quite a while, and I suspect it will creep back in Notre Dame’s favor as we get closer to game day. If that happens, I will strongly consider a play on Navy at +21 or better.
Clemson (-12) at Duke
8 p.m. Monday, Sept. 4
Dabo Swinney finally made a switch to Clemson’s offense as he hired Garrett Riley away from TCU to be his offensive coordinator. With a new system in place and a full offseason with Cade Klubnik as the clear starting quarterback, I’m expecting the Tigers to be much better offensively in 2023, even with the receiver spot still a question.
On the other side, Duke was one of the biggest surprises in the sport by winning nine games in Year 1 under new coach Mike Elko. The Blue Devils won 10 games combined in their previous three seasons, so it was a massive turnaround.
Duke could be just as good or even better in 2023, but getting to nine wins is going to be a tall task as it faces a much tougher schedule. The team has quite a bit of returning production on offense, but the fact that the staff added four transfers to the offensive line shows there are concerns about the depth up front. This is going to be a tough matchup for the Blue Devils.
