College football betting: 10 best win total bets entering the 2023 season

The college football offseason has been dominated by conference realignment, but we’re only 16 days away from actual action on the field. It can’t get here soon enough.

With the season so close, it felt like a good time to take a closer look at the win total market. Sportsbooks post win totals earlier in the summer than ever, so these numbers have moved quite a bit over the past few months.

Using figures that are still widely available (be sure to shop around), here are 10 teams potentially worth a wager.

Boston College over 5.5 wins

Boston College endured a crazy amount of injuries on the offensive line and just couldn’t keep QB Phil Jurkovec upright last year. And though Jurkovec has since transferred to Pitt and receiver Zay Flowers was a first-round pick, I think BC could be a surprisingly competitive team in the ACC — much better than the 3-9 record from 2022.

With all-ACC guard Christian Mahogany back from injury, the much-improved offensive line will help BC’s running game tremendously and new starting QB Emmett Morehead has an underrated group of receivers to work with. Keep an eye on UCF transfer Ryan O’Keefe. Speaking of underrated, Donovan Ezeiruaku is one of the better edge rushers in the ACC.

The schedule sets up well for BC to get back to a bowl game. BC should win all of its non-conference games and doesn’t have to face Clemson, North Carolina or Notre Dame. Virginia and Virginia Tech are both very winnable ACC home games, as are road games at Georgia Tech and Syracuse. There is a very viable path to six wins here. Give me the over.

Cincinnati under 5.5

Compared to the 2021 trip to the CFP, Cincinnati already started to show a few signs of decline under Luke Fickell. And now Fickell is at Wisconsin and Scott Satterfield is in place as the Bearcats’ head coach as they move up in competition from the AAC to the Big 12. It could be a rough first year.

Cincinnati is going to rely on the well-traveled Emory Jones at quarterback with completely overhauled groups on the offensive line and at receiver. The defensive line should be pretty solid, but the secondary is a major question mark — especially at cornerback. UC doesn’t have to play Texas or Kansas State in Big 12 play, but most of the toss-up games (BYU, Houston, WVU) are on the road. There’s also a road game versus Pitt in the non-con.

I think the Bearcats miss a bowl game for the first time since 2017.

East Carolina under 5.5

Even though the AAC competition is weaker with Cincinnati, Houston and UCF now in the Big 12, ECU could be in for a rebuilding year after consecutive winning seasons.

The Pirates lost QB Holton Ahlers, RB Keaton Mitchell and two 1,000-yard receivers to the NFL and saw their top two offensive linemen transfer to Auburn and Oregon. The defense should be pretty solid, but this season is going to be a real test of Mike Houston’s recruiting now that he’s in Year 5.

With Michigan, Marshall and App State on the non-conference schedule and Tulane, SMU, UTSA and FAU all on the conference schedule, it’s hard to find a path where the Pirates get back to a bowl game.

Kentucky over 6.5

I really like Kentucky’s potential this season despite losing Will Levis to the NFL. NC State transfer Devin Leary could even be an upgrade at quarterback and the offensive line play should be much improved. The Wildcats also return their top three receivers, added ex-Vanderbilt RB Ray Davis and, most importantly, have Liam Coen back as offensive coordinator following a brief stint in the NFL.

On defense, Kentucky’s front seven should be nasty with Deone Walker in the middle, JJ Weaver off the edge and Trevin Wallace at linebacker. There are some questions about the secondary, but I trust Mark Stoops to get that position shored up.

The schedule should allow the Wildcats to start 4-0. Things get more difficult from there, but I think this team can win eight or nine games.

Memphis under 8.5

Ryan Silverfield has just not been able to build off what he inherited from Mike Norvell. Memphis went 6-6 in the regular season in 2021 and 2022. I don’t expect the Tigers to all of a sudden jump to nine wins just because the AAC’s competition is weaker.

Though Seth Henigan is back at quarterback, Memphis has to replace both tackles and five of its top six receivers. The running game was pretty bad last year, so unless that improves Henigan is going to shoulder a heavy load with an entirely new receiving corps.

The defense struggled with any half-decent offense it faced last year, and it’s hard to expect some major step forward from that unit. On top of all that, Memphis is 2-8 in its last 10 one-score games. Is that bad luck or bad coaching? I suspect it’s the latter more than the former. I’ll go with the under.

NC State over 6.5

NC State had a ton of hype entering the 2022 season, but a slew of QB injuries threw the season off track. After a 5-1 start, the Wolfpack ended up finishing 8-5. Entering 2023, NC State is in a more familiar position — being overlooked instead of overhyped. That suits Dave Doeren’s program well.

Though Devin Leary is gone to Kentucky, ex-Virginia QB Brennan Armstrong and his former offensive coordinator, Robert Anae, were brought to Raleigh. Anae replaces Tim Beck (now Coastal Carolina’s head coach) and it’s an upgrade. Though there’s turnover throughout the offense, Anae is a very creative play-caller and knows how to scheme his players open. And the summer addition of Rice transfer Bradley Rozner at receiver was big.

On defense, Tony Gibson is one of the most underrated coordinators in the country. The Wolfpack should be pretty good up front, veteran LB Payton Wilson is back after an injury and the starting corners are strong. With a reasonable non-conference schedule, there’s a very viable path to at least seven wins here.

Nebraska under 6.5

I’m a believer in the Matt Rhule hire, but this is a program that hasn’t topped five wins since 2016. I’ve faded the Huskers in the past and I’ll gladly do it again here and go under 6.5 wins.

Rhule is going to have this team play a more poised, disciplined and confident brand of football, but there are a lot of concerns about this offense. Jeff Sims should be solid at quarterback, but there’s very little depth behind him. Part of what makes him a good player is his ability to run the ball. Any injury there, and the Huskers’ season could fall off a cliff. There are also questions about the offensive line and receivers.

I love Tony White as a defensive coordinator hire, but the personnel really isn’t very good. And then the schedule is tough. Opening the year at Minnesota and Colorado won’t be easy and then there’s home games versus Michigan, Maryland and Iowa and trips to Illinois and Wisconsin. Maybe Rhule guides the Huskers to six wins, but I don’t see seven. I see 5-7 as the most likely outcome.

North Carolina under 8.5

Drake Maye is probably the second-best quarterback in the country behind Caleb Williams, but I’m comfortable going with the under on UNC here. This team just does not show any toughness, particularly on defense, and there are a bunch of physical teams on this schedule — South Carolina, App State, Minnesota, Pitt, Clemson and NC State, just to name a few.

The defense just keeps getting worse and I have no confidence that Gene Chizik will turn things around in his second year as defensive coordinator. The Heels were horrific on the line of scrimmage and the secondary is going to rely heavily on transfers this year. And if receiver Devontez Walker can’t play as a two-time transfer, the offense could take a step back too.

Oklahoma State over 6.5

This is sort of a hunch, but I feel like Oklahoma State is being slept on this season. The Cowboys lost longtime starting QB Spencer Sanders but seem to be quietly confident about the addition of Alan Bowman. Bowman put up huge numbers when he was healthy at Texas Tech and then spent two seasons as a backup at Michigan. The running back room looks good and OSU grabbed a few underrated receivers out of the portal.

The defense is going to rely on several transfers, too, but I trust Mike Gundy to put a winning team out on the field. The Cowboys have won at least seven regular season games in 13 of the last 15 seasons. And this year, OSU has a very favorable schedule that includes all four Big 12 newcomers and avoids Texas, TCU and Texas Tech.

Syracuse under 6.5

Syracuse surprisingly started 6-0 last year and then fell off a cliff, finishing 7-6 amid a bunch of injuries. Though QB Garrett Shrader and top target Oronde Gadsen are back, I have a lot of concerns about this offense. Coordinator Robert Anae left for NC State, there’s not much receiver depth, star RB Sean Tucker is off to the NFL and the line talent is mediocre at best.

On defense, DC Tony White left for Nebraska and the top three players in the secondary have all departed. Garrett Williams is in the NFL, Ja’Had Carter is at Ohio State and Duce Chestnut is at LSU. Those are significant departures, as are Jatius Geer (South Carolina) and Steve Linton (Texas Tech) up front.

The non-conference schedule is manageable, but the Orange open ACC play with Clemson at home and then UNC and Florida State on the road. Yikes. Syracuse also gave up a home game versus Pitt to play at Yankee Stadium, meaning there’s only three ACC home games. That’s not a recipe for a winning season. I’m on the under.