Climate experts say warmer temperatures from December will continue this winter in South Dakota
Meteorologists with the National Weather Service and the Climate Prediction Center say the rest of the winter season in South Dakota is going to continue the trend of above average temperatures, despite a heavy winter storm that hit Sioux Falls earlier this week and dangerous wind chills to come this weekend.
The start of this week was met with a long-protracted and heavy snow event that resulted in almost a foot of snow dumped on the ground by Monday night, and numerous crashes responded to by Sioux Falls first responders.
While the snow event was the start of a cold spell for the next few weeks, the rest of the winter season this year is going to keep the above average temperatures seen in December for the most part, weather and climate experts said.
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“We are likely to see, in the next two weeks, a pretty intense cold spell, with storms moving into the northwest that could end up overtop of the northern plains in preparation (of) decent snowfall,” said Matthew Rosencrans, a meteorologist with the Climate Prediction Center.
Rosencrans said the main snow track for this time period looks like it will come down along the Rocky Mountain range, west of South Dakota. Then, “it’s likely to dip down and move into the southeast U.S.,” he said.
What has Sioux Falls seen so far?
The start to the winter season this year was “warm and wet” because of the daily precipitation during December being “quite intensive in northeast South Dakota,” with some places showing 3 to 4 inches above normal and most of the state being 1 inch above normal, Rosencrans said.
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“Looking out as we go through January, February, March, we are looking for a continuation of those above normal temperatures,” Rosencrans said. “Now at South Dakota this time of the year, that probably still (will) be freezing. A 0.25 to 0.2, even 0.8 degrees above normal still means your average temperatures (in) northeast South Dakota should still be about 21°F and 27°F as you go further south and west.”
The El Niño effect
Brittany Peterson, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in Sioux Falls, connected the reasoning behind the warmer temperatures to the El Niño seasonal pattern, which impacts the entire northern plains area and the reason behind the effects that were seen at the start of this winter season.
El Niño season is a "climate pattern that describes the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific ocean," according to the National Geographic's definition. It's basically "the warm phase of a larger phenomenon called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)," which affects geographic temperatures in the northern plains area.
“You’re likely to see more of an impact from El Niño, keeping the pattern going from west to east very strongly,” Rosencrans said. “If the winds and the flow is very strong across the country, from west to east, it kind of moves them along far, the exact attribution of what happened during December.”
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What role does precipitation play?
The Climate Prediction Center shows precipitation in the state during this first quarter to be “equal chances,” which means “no strong climate tilt toward either below normal or above normal precipitation.” There should be “no significant difference from what you would expect using data looking at the past 30 years,” Rosencrans said.
This would mean the state sees a precipitation of about 2.4 inches, which is the normal amount. And while that doesn’t sound like too much, that would mean 2 to 3 feet of snow if that all comes down to snowfall, Rosencrans said.
“Typically, they come in strong bursts of snow where you get 10 inches and then you don’t see anything for a couple weeks,” he said. “Forecasting each one of those individual bursts or storms is not really possible more than about seven days out.”
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The NWS forecast for the next seven days is as follows as of Thursday morning:
Today: Mostly cloudy in the day with a high near 9°F. North northwest wind around 10-15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. The night is cloudy with a low around -2°F and wind chills as low as -18°F. Snow is likely, mainly after 7 p.m. North winds between around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70% and 2 inches of new snow accumulation.
Friday: Cloudy in the day with a high near 7°F and wind chill is as low as -23°F. Snow is likely before 7 a.m. and patchy blowing snow after. North wind between 15 to 25 mph, with gusts around 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60% and 1 inch of new snow accumulation. Mostly cloudy atmosphere continues through the night with a low around -6°F with -26°F wind chill values and 30% chance of patchy blowing snow before 7 p.m. Northwest wind between 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy in the day with a high near -2°F. A 40% chance of patchy blowing snow, mainly after 7 a.m. Northwest wind between 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Mostly cloudy in the night with a low around -19°F. A 30% chance of patchy blowing snow before 7 p.m. Northwest wind between 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.
Sunday: Mostly sunny and cold in the day with a high near -9°F and patchy blowing snow before 9 a.m. Partly cloudy in the night with a low around -17°F.
Monday: Partly sunny and cold during the day with a high near -3°F. Partly cloudy during the night with a low near -16°F.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny during the day with a high near 7°F. Partly cloudy during the night with a low near -7°F.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny with a high near 17°F.
This article originally appeared on Sioux Falls Argus Leader: What does the rest of winter look like after this week's snowstorm?
