Clemson football sees big changes in bowl projections after Notre Dame loss
Goodbye, Peach Bowl and Fiesta Bowl.
Hello, Orange Bowl — or something else in Florida.
That was the unanimous take among bowl game prognosticators after unranked Notre Dame routed undefeated Clemson 35-14 on Saturday night, making the Tigers’ path back to the College Football Playoff that much tougher.
Clemson (8-1, 6-0 ACC) debuted at No. 4 in last week’s CFP Selection Committee top 25. But coach Dabo Swinney’s program will certainly drop below the four-team cutoff line in Tuesday’s updated rankings after a loss to the Fighting Irish (6-3).
Media outlets projecting the 2022 bowl game slate have already adjusted their expectations accordingly. After popping up in various outlets’ CFP semifinals in recent weeks, Clemson is now battling for, at best, a New Year’s Six Bowl, according to updated projections.
“We’re never losing faith,” linebacker Barrett Carter said of the CFP. “We know what our goals are as a team, so that’s always going to be the end goal. This loss that we just took, there’s no demoralization throughout the team. We’re still focused. We still know what all we can accomplish. All of our goals are still on the table.”
A lot can change between now and the Dec. 4 Selection Day for Clemson, which finishes the regular season with a three-game homestand against Louisville, Miami and rival South Carolina before heading to the ACC championship game as the conference’s Atlantic Division champion.
In Charlotte’s Bank of America Stadium, Clemson is all but set to face No. 17 North Carolina. The Tar Heels (8-1, 5-0 ACC) have a 98.6% chance to win the ACC Coastal Division and can clinch it this weekend at Wake Forest.
Even in a best-case scenario, though, the current ceiling for a 13-1 ACC champion Clemson team with a win over UNC isn’t one of the two CFP semifinals, per projections.
It’s a spot in the Orange Bowl, which annually hosts the ACC champion or the top-ranked available ACC team if the champion advances to the College Football Playoff. After Week 10, that’s where Athlon Sports, CBS Sports, ESPN and USA TODAY all have the Tigers.
The Orange Bowl’s other 2022 team will be either a Big Ten or an SEC team; this week’s projections have Alabama (7-2) and LSU (7-2) as Clemson’s most likely opponents.
Other outlets have Clemson projected the Gator Bowl (Action Network, Sporting News) and the Cheez-It Bowl (247Sports). Since those are second-tier ACC bowls behind the Orange Bowl, those projections essentially predict a second Clemson loss over the next four games.
“You never know what can happen throughout college football,” Carter said. “We’re just going to go to work and whatever happens happens. We’re going to keep fighting as a team and finish as strong as we can.”
Clemson has a long history in the Orange Bowl. The Tigers have played in the Miami-area bowl six times and won the 1981 national championship against Nebraska in the venue.
They’ve also played there three times this century, beating Ohio State in 2013 and Oklahoma in a 2015 College Football Playoff semifinal while losing to West Virginia, 70-33, in 2011.
Clemson has played in the Jacksonville-based Gator Bowl nine times, most recently in a 2009 loss against Nebraska, and in the Orlando-based Cheez-It Bowl four times, most recently in a 2021 win against Iowa State.
Naturally, no major Week 10 projections included Clemson in the Peach Bowl or Fiesta Bowl CFP semifinal games scheduled for New Year’s Eve. The winners of those games will play for the CFP national championship on Jan. 9 in SoFi Stadium near Los Angeles.
Clemson Week 10 bowl projections
247Sports: Cheez-It Bowl vs. Baylor, Dec. 29
Action Network: Gator Bowl vs. Mississippi State, Dec. 30
Athlon Sports: Orange Bowl vs. Alabama, Dec. 30
CBS Sports: Orange Bowl vs. Alabama, Dec. 30
ESPN: Orange Bowl vs. LSU, Dec. 30
The Sporting News: Gator Bowl vs. Florida, Dec. 30
USA TODAY Sports: Orange Bowl vs. Alabama, Dec. 30
