Christie takes second place from DeSantis in New Hampshire as Trump remains dominant: poll
Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has swiped the second spot in the upcoming New Hampshire primary from Florida Governor Ron DeSantis even as former President Donald Trump remains dominant.
A new poll from Emerson College released on Tuesday shows Mr Christie at nine per cent support, while Mr DeSantis is at eight per cent, down from 17 per cent in March. Mr Christie’s lead is within the poll’s 3.4 per cent margin of error. Mr Trump received 49 per cent.
Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling, said that “DeSantis has been the alternative to Trump in Emerson polling this presidential cycle. This is the first time we have seen DeSantis drop out of second place in our polling, and fall back into the pack of candidates”.
Meanwhile, the 2024 election looks set to be a rematch between President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump.
Despite his mounting legal problems, Mr Trump is by far the most popular candidate in the Republican field.
The Republican primary is scheduled to begin with the Iowa caucuses on 15 January and the New Hampshire primary on 23 January.
Key Points
Ramaswamy beats DeSantis in fight for second in primary poll
Majority of Republicans want Trump to be nominee
Biden needs to get stronger with his base, Trump with independents, GOP strategist says
Biden fighting dropping enthusiasm in Rust Belt cities ahead of 2024
‘I never count out Ohio'
Why the classified documents case may be damaging to Trump
15:00 , Gustaf Kilander
Donald Trump’s favourability rating took a hit after he was indicted in June in the Special Counsel’s case against him for allegedly mishandling classified information.
One theory as to why Mr Trump’s ratings took a dip at this point and appeared unaffected by previous scandals is that a lot of information that came out were things the public didn’t know before the year, FiveThirtyEight notes.
The case also impacts an issue important to both Republicans and voters as a whole – national security.
Weekly polls conducted by YouGov and The Economist show that one in ten Americans say it’s the most important issue. It’s third behind the economy – 26 per cent – and healthcare – 13 per cent.
Moreover, GOP voters were twice as likely to say that national security was their top issue compared to their Democratic counterparts, meaning that some members of the GOP may be stunned by the classified documents case in a way that they may not be affected by other sources of Mr Trump’s legal woes.
Indictments may be damaging to Trump, but not in primary polls
12:00 , Gustaf Kilander
While the indictment against the former president if anything appears to be boosting his support among the Republican primary electorate, it may be hurting him with voters overall.
Recent polling indicates that Mr Trump isn’t convincing voters at large that his recent indictments by the Special Counsel’s Office are part of what he likes to call a “witch hunt”.
Voters see his legal woes as serious issues and that his connection to the Capitol Riot warrants criminal charges.
His favourability rating took a dip both as a whole and among Republicans following his indictment for mishandling classified documents, including national security information.
After his indictment in the hush money case in New York, Mr Trump’s net favourability rating rose by 0.7 per cent among Republicans, but it fell by 1.8 per cent after the June indictment and it saw a steeper decline among adults as a whole, FiveThirtyEight notes.
The public opinion of Mr Trump has been fairly stable over the years making even small changes such as this notable.
Trump leads DeSantis by 41 per cent in Morning Consult poll
09:00 , Gustaf Kilander
Donald Trump is leading Ron DeSantis by 41 per cent, according to a new poll conducted between 11 and 13 August by Morning Consult.
Mr Trump has 57 per cent support among the national GOP primary electorate, while Mr DeSantis is backed by 16 per cent.
Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy is supported by nine per cent of possible primary voters, while former Vice President Mike Pence gets seven per cent.
Nikki Haley, Chris Christie, and Tim Scott are all at three per cent.
Christie takes second spot from DeSantis in New Hampshire
06:00 , Gustaf Kilander
Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has swiped the second spot in the upcoming New Hampshire primary from Florida Governor Ron DeSantis even as former President Donald Trump remains dominant.
A new poll from Emerson College released on Tuesday shows Mr Christie at nine per cent support, while Mr DeSantis is at eight per cent, down from 17 per cent in March. Mr Christie’s lead is within the poll’s 3.4 per cent margin of error. Mr Trump received 49 per cent.
Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling, said that “DeSantis has been the alternative to Trump in Emerson polling this presidential cycle. This is the first time we have seen DeSantis drop out of second place in our polling, and fall back into the pack of candidates”.
The Christie campaign has put most of its focus on New Hampshire, while Mr DeSantis and his team have been more focused on Iowa. The Florida governor has still travelled a fair bit to New Hampshire.
Why the classified documents case may be damaging to Trump
03:00 , Gustaf Kilander
Donald Trump’s favourability rating took a hit after he was indicted in June in the Special Counsel’s case against him for allegedly mishandling classified information.
One theory as to why Mr Trump’s ratings took a dip at this point and appeared unaffected by previous scandals is that a lot of information that came out were things the public didn’t know before the year, FiveThirtyEight notes.
The case also impacts an issue important to both Republicans and voters as a whole – national security.
Weekly polls conducted by YouGov and The Economist show that one in ten Americans say it’s the most important issue. It’s third behind the economy – 26 per cent – and healthcare – 13 per cent.
Moreover, GOP voters were twice as likely to say that national security was their top issue compared to their Democratic counterparts, meaning that some members of the GOP may be stunned by the classified documents case in a way that they may not be affected by other sources of Mr Trump’s legal woes.
Indictments may be damaging to Trump, but not in primary polls
00:00 , Gustaf Kilander
While the indictment against the former president if anything appears to be boosting his support among the Republican primary electorate, it may be hurting him with voters overall.
Recent polling indicates that Mr Trump isn’t convincing voters at large that his recent indictments by the Special Counsel’s Office are part of what he likes to call a “witch hunt”.
Voters see his legal woes as serious issues and that his connection to the Capitol Riot warrants criminal charges.
His favourability rating took a dip both as a whole and among Republicans following his indictment for mishandling classified documents, including national security information.
After his indictment in the hush money case in New York, Mr Trump’s net favourability rating rose by 0.7 per cent among Republicans, but it fell by 1.8 per cent after the June indictment and it saw a steeper decline among adults as a whole, FiveThirtyEight notes.
The public opinion of Mr Trump has been fairly stable over the years making even small changes such as this notable.
Trump leads DeSantis by 41 per cent in Morning Consult poll
21:00 , Gustaf Kilander
Donald Trump is leading Ron DeSantis by 41 per cent, according to a new poll conducted between 11 and 13 August by Morning Consult.
Mr Trump has 57 per cent support among the national GOP primary electorate, while Mr DeSantis is backed by 16 per cent.
Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy is supported by nine per cent of possible primary voters, while former Vice President Mike Pence gets seven per cent.
Nikki Haley, Chris Christie, and Tim Scott are all at three per cent.
Christie takes second spot from DeSantis in New Hampshire
18:00 , Gustaf Kilander
Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has swiped the second spot in the upcoming New Hampshire primary from Florida Governor Ron DeSantis even as former President Donald Trump remains dominant.
A new poll from Emerson College released on Tuesday shows Mr Christie at nine per cent support, while Mr DeSantis is at eight per cent, down from 17 per cent in March. Mr Christie’s lead is within the poll’s 3.4 per cent margin of error. Mr Trump received 49 per cent.
Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling, said that “DeSantis has been the alternative to Trump in Emerson polling this presidential cycle. This is the first time we have seen DeSantis drop out of second place in our polling, and fall back into the pack of candidates”.
The Christie campaign has put most of its focus on New Hampshire, while Mr DeSantis and his team have been more focused on Iowa. The Florida governor has still travelled a fair bit to New Hampshire.
Ramaswamy beats DeSantis in fight for second in primary poll
14:00 , Gustaf Kilander
In a poll conducted by Kaplan Strategies between 9 and 10 August, Mr Trump led the GOP field with 48 per cent of the vote.
Vivek Ramaswamy came in second with 11 per cent, and Ron DeSantis in third with 10 per cent.
Mike Pence received eight per cent, while Chris Christie and Nikki Haley got for. Tim Scott received two per cent in the poll.
Majority of Republicans want Trump to be nominee
08:00 , Gustaf Kilander
As of Monday, Donald Trump was in the lead in the Republican field with 52.7 per cent of the vote, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.
Trump: 52.7%
DeSantis: 14.0%
Ramaswamy: 7.2%
Pence: 6.0%
Haley: 4.0%
Christie: 2.7%
Scott: 2.6%
Burgum: 0.7%
Hutchinson: 0.5%
Suarez: 0.2%
Hurd: 0.1%
Compared to last week, Mr Trump has gained 0.3 per cent and Mr DeSantis has lost 1.6 per cent.
Ramaswamy beats DeSantis in fight for second in primary poll
Monday 14 August 2023 21:18 , Gustaf Kilander
In a poll conducted by Kaplan Strategies between 9 and 10 August, Mr Trump led the GOP field with 48 per cent of the vote.
Vivek Ramaswamy came in second with 11 per cent, and Ron DeSantis in third with 10 per cent.
Mike Pence received eight per cent, while Chris Christie and Nikki Haley got for. Tim Scott received two per cent in the poll.
Majority of Republicans want Trump to be nominee
Monday 14 August 2023 18:15 , Gustaf Kilander
As of Monday, Donald Trump was in the lead in the Republican field with 52.7 per cent of the vote, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.
Trump: 52.7%
DeSantis: 14.0%
Ramaswamy: 7.2%
Pence: 6.0%
Haley: 4.0%
Christie: 2.7%
Scott: 2.6%
Burgum: 0.7%
Hutchinson: 0.5%
Suarez: 0.2%
Hurd: 0.1%
Compared to last week, Mr Trump has gained 0.3 per cent and Mr DeSantis has lost 1.6 per cent.
Biden needs to get stronger with his base, Trump with independents, GOP strategist says
Monday 14 August 2023 15:00 , Gustaf Kilander
The closest of all the swing states is set to be Wisconsin, some close to the Biden campaign told Politico.
Wisconsin could be the state where Mr Biden reaches 270 electoral votes followed by Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada.
A number of those close to the campaign believe that Georgia is only a winnable state with Mr Trump as the Republican nominee. Others say the state could be won regardless of who the GOP puts forward.
GOP strategist Alex Conant told the outlet: “Does he recover his footing with younger voters, with non-white voters? Can he get those numbers back up? If not, it makes states like North Carolina and Nevada really tough for him.”
“For Trump, can he improve his standing with independents? My sense is that he has not so far. If he can’t, due to reminders of January 6, then you could see Pennsylvania fall off the map, maybe Arizona and Georgia get tougher, too,” he added.
Biden fighting dropping enthusiasm in Rust Belt cities ahead of 2024
Monday 14 August 2023 12:00 , Gustaf Kilander
While those in charge of getting the president reelected aren’t overly concerned about Mr Trump’s comeback chances, they told Politico that it will be a close race.
The advisors argue that Mr Biden’s global leadership, his legislative accomplishments and the US’s economic performance after the pandemic will get him another term.
They also note that Mr Trump’s myriad of scandals, mounting legal woes, and extreme stances by MAGA candidates will push away independents and other swing voters.
But they also admit that Mr Trump’s support in swing states remains strong, especially among the white working class.
Mr Trump’s support from unionized workers has also increased despite Mr Biden’s longtime union connections.
The three Rust Belt states – Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin – all have large cities – Philadelphia, Detroit and Milwaukee – where Mr Biden needs to fight drooping enthusiasm among younger voters and African Americans, specifically among men.
Biden spokesperson Kevin Munoz told Politico that “in the midterms and throughout elections this year, we’ve seen that President Biden’s message is the winning one for 2024. That said, we fully expect this to be a competitive election and will take nothing for granted”.
“We must earn every American’s vote, which is why we’re already investing in our battlegrounds and key voting blocs,” he added.
‘Maybe all of a sudden Ohio is in play'
Monday 14 August 2023 09:00 , Gustaf Kilander
The Biden campaign is focusing on the three Rust Belt states that the president won back in 2020, five people close to the campaign told Politico.
States in the Sun Belt, such as Nevada, Georgia, and Arizona, are toss-ups, according to the Biden team. They were all narrowly won by Mr Biden in 2020.
The Biden allies also believe that Mr Trump is likely to win the Republican nomination.
“Will it probably just be the same states? Yeah, probably,” one individual close to the campaign told the outlet.
But they added that the “abortion issue is alive and well” and that “You have an abortion referendum in places like Florida and Ohio. Well, that makes you take a good look at things. … Maybe all of a sudden Ohio is in play”.
While the White House has sent Mr Biden and top staff to events in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, polling there still shows a close race with Mr Trump.
Last week, a poll from Emerson College had the two at 44 per cent each in Michigan, with Mr Trump in a narrow lead if third-party candidate Cornell West is on the ballot.
A recent poll by Marquette Law School found a 50-50 tie in Wisconsin between Mr Biden and Mr Trump. Similarly, a poll by Quinnipiac revealed that Mr Trump was narrowly ahead in the state, 47 to 46 per cent, however within the margin of error for the poll.
Biden operatives see Florida and Ohio as longshot possibilities
Monday 14 August 2023 06:00 , Gustaf Kilander
Mr Biden’s team also tried to maximize the ways the campaign could reach 270 electoral votes in 2020 by putting states like Georgia and Arizona, states that the president ended up winning, on its list of target states.
While the simplest path to victory was taking back the traditionally Democratic Rust Belt states that voted for Mr Trump in 2016, the Biden team went for states thought to be harder to win to protect against uncertainty, senior Biden adviser Becca Siegel told Politico.
Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin were unexpectedly won by Mr Trump in 2016, and they went for Mr Biden in 2020.
But Biden operatives see Florida and Ohio as longshot possibilities, with few agreeing with Ms Weingarten’s belief Ohio could be in play and some say winning in Florida is wishful thinking.
While Mr Obama won both of them in 2008 and 2012, they have since experienced a rightward shift.
‘I never count out Ohio'
Monday 14 August 2023 03:00 , Gustaf Kilander
The Biden campaign and the Democratic National Committee (DNC) have placed ads in North Carolina and in Florida – a state most recently won by a Democrat on the presidential level in 2012. Barack Obama also won it in 2008, taking it back for Democrats after two straight wins in the state for President George W Bush.
An amendment to restore abortion rights in the Sunshine State could be on the ballot in 2024. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, the main rival for the Republican presidential nomination to former President Donald Trump, has recently signed a six-week ban on abortions.
This week in Ohio, now widely considered to have gone from a purple to a red state, voters rejected a proposal intended to limit abortion rights. Some in Mr Biden’s circle now hope that the state could possibly be in play.
Mr Obama won the state twice, as did Mr Bush and Mr Trump.
Randi Weingarten, the president of the American Federation of Teachers and a Biden ally, told Politico: “I never count out Ohio”.
“What you saw [this week] in terms of Ohio is that fairness won out,” she added.
Some in Biden team believe abortion rights will open new paths to victory in 2024
Monday 14 August 2023 00:00 , Gustaf Kilander
While many working on getting President Joe Biden reelected in 2024 think the road to victory looks similar to 2020, some see fresh pathways to remaining in the White House for another four years.
Behind that optimism is the steadfast focus of many voters on abortion rights following the fall of Roe v Wade last year.
The main path to a win is seen as going through the so-called blue wall – the Rust Belt states such as Pennsylvania and Michigan – as well as once again attempting to win states that have recently become more winnable for Democrats such as Georgia and Arizona.
But aides to Mr Biden are now working on winning back territory not won by Democrats in a decade or more.
A top comeback opportunity in North Carolina, a state not won by Democrats on the presidential level since President Barack Obama won it in 2008.
A 12-week ban on abortion has gone into effect in the state over the objections of Democratic Governor Roy Cooper, who was overruled after vetoing the bill.
An anonymous Biden campaign official told Politico that it would be “crazy” not to go for North Carolina since Mr Biden lost it by a single percentage point in 2020.
Labor leader says fall of Roe is ‘expanding the map'
Sunday 13 August 2023 21:00 , Gustaf Kilander
Randi Weingarten, the president of the American Federation of Teachers, told Politico when Roe v Wade fell, “there was a huge shock of ‘Oh my god, this really happened. They really took away a right’”.
“And as these states have been more and more extremist, you’re seeing more women and families wondering why their government is taking rights away from them. I do think it is expanding the map,” she added.
VIDEO: The Hunter Biden Affair: Epic scandal or nothing-burger?
Sunday 13 August 2023 19:00 , Gustaf Kilander
2024 set to feature ‘the smallest map in the history of American politics'
Sunday 13 August 2023 18:00 , Gustaf Kilander
Mr Obama’s 2012 campaign manager Jim Messina told Politico that political divisions in the US will create “the smallest map in the history of American politics” in 2024.
That’s because the candidates “are so well-known and the increased political tribalism”.
Some in Bidenworld think Pennsylvania will only get harder for Democrats to win
Sunday 13 August 2023 15:00 , Gustaf Kilander
Those in the Biden circle feel surest about winning Michigan out of all the Rust Belt states but admit that even the home of Motown will be a fight to win.
Many close to the campaign think Pennsylvania will be harder to win again, despite Mr Biden, who’s from bordering Delaware, having spent more time there than any other swing state.
Mr Trump has displayed strong support among the white working class in the Keystone State. Mr Biden didn’t reach his projected levels with the group in 2020, internal campaign data has shown, according to Politico.
Some close to the president think Pennsylvania is where Ohio was a decade ago and that the state will only become harder for Democrats to win. But others point to wins by Governor Josh Shapiro and Senator John Fetterman last year to mean Democrats have a strong footing in the state.
Biden needs to get stronger with his base, Trump with independents, GOP strategist says
Sunday 13 August 2023 12:00 , Gustaf Kilander
The closest of all the swing states is set to be Wisconsin, some close to the Biden campaign told Politico.
Wisconsin could be the state where Mr Biden reaches 270 electoral votes followed by Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada.
A number of those close to the campaign believe that Georgia is only a winnable state with Mr Trump as the Republican nominee. Others say the state could be won regardless of who the GOP puts forward.
GOP strategist Alex Conant told the outlet: “Does he recover his footing with younger voters, with non-white voters? Can he get those numbers back up? If not, it makes states like North Carolina and Nevada really tough for him.”
“For Trump, can he improve his standing with independents? My sense is that he has not so far. If he can’t, due to reminders of January 6, then you could see Pennsylvania fall off the map, maybe Arizona and Georgia get tougher, too,” he added.
Biden fighting dropping enthusiasm in Rust Belt cities ahead of 2024
Sunday 13 August 2023 09:00 , Gustaf Kilander
While those in charge of getting the president reelected aren’t overly concerned about Mr Trump’s comeback chances, they told Politico that it will be a close race.
The advisors argue that Mr Biden’s global leadership, his legislative accomplishments and the US’s economic performance after the pandemic will get him another term.
They also note that Mr Trump’s myriad of scandals, mounting legal woes, and extreme stances by MAGA candidates will push away independents and other swing voters.
But they also admit that Mr Trump’s support in swing states remains strong, especially among the white working class.
Mr Trump’s support from unionized workers has also increased despite Mr Biden’s longtime union connections.
The three Rust Belt states – Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin – all have large cities – Philadelphia, Detroit and Milwaukee – where Mr Biden needs to fight drooping enthusiasm among younger voters and African Americans, specifically among men.
Biden spokesperson Kevin Munoz told Politico that “in the midterms and throughout elections this year, we’ve seen that President Biden’s message is the winning one for 2024. That said, we fully expect this to be a competitive election and will take nothing for granted”.
“We must earn every American’s vote, which is why we’re already investing in our battlegrounds and key voting blocs,” he added.
‘Maybe all of a sudden Ohio is in play'
Sunday 13 August 2023 06:00 , Gustaf Kilander
The Biden campaign is focusing on the three Rust Belt states that the president won back in 2020, five people close to the campaign told Politico.
States in the Sun Belt, such as Nevada, Georgia, and Arizona, are toss-ups, according to the Biden team. They were all narrowly won by Mr Biden in 2020.
The Biden allies also believe that Mr Trump is likely to win the Republican nomination.
“Will it probably just be the same states? Yeah, probably,” one individual close to the campaign told the outlet.
But they added that the “abortion issue is alive and well” and that “You have an abortion referendum in places like Florida and Ohio. Well, that makes you take a good look at things. … Maybe all of a sudden Ohio is in play”.
While the White House has sent Mr Biden and top staff to events in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, polling there still shows a close race with Mr Trump.
Last week, a poll from Emerson College had the two at 44 per cent each in Michigan, with Mr Trump in a narrow lead if third-party candidate Cornell West is on the ballot.
A recent poll by Marquette Law School found a 50-50 tie in Wisconsin between Mr Biden and Mr Trump. Similarly, a poll by Quinnipiac revealed that Mr Trump was narrowly ahead in the state, 47 to 46 per cent, however within the margin of error for the poll.
Biden operatives see Florida and Ohio as longshot possibilities
Sunday 13 August 2023 03:00 , Gustaf Kilander
Mr Biden’s team also tried to maximize the ways the campaign could reach 270 electoral votes in 2020 by putting states like Georgia and Arizona, states that the president ended up winning, on its list of target states.
While the simplest path to victory was taking back the traditionally Democratic Rust Belt states that voted for Mr Trump in 2016, the Biden team went for states thought to be harder to win to protect against uncertainty, senior Biden adviser Becca Siegel told Politico.
Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin were unexpectedly won by Mr Trump in 2016, and they went for Mr Biden in 2020.
But Biden operatives see Florida and Ohio as longshot possibilities, with few agreeing with Ms Weingarten’s belief Ohio could be in play and some say winning in Florida is wishful thinking.
While Mr Obama won both of them in 2008 and 2012, they have since experienced a rightward shift.
‘I never count out Ohio'
Sunday 13 August 2023 00:00 , Gustaf Kilander
The Biden campaign and the Democratic National Committee (DNC) have placed ads in North Carolina and in Florida – a state most recently won by a Democrat on the presidential level in 2012. Barack Obama also won it in 2008, taking it back for Democrats after two straight wins in the state for President George W Bush.
An amendment to restore abortion rights in the Sunshine State could be on the ballot in 2024. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, the main rival for the Republican presidential nomination to former President Donald Trump, has recently signed a six-week ban on abortions.
This week in Ohio, now widely considered to have gone from a purple to a red state, voters rejected a proposal intended to limit abortion rights. Some in Mr Biden’s circle now hope that the state could possibly be in play.
Mr Obama won the state twice, as did Mr Bush and Mr Trump.
Randi Weingarten, the president of the American Federation of Teachers and a Biden ally, told Politico: “I never count out Ohio”.
“What you saw [this week] in terms of Ohio is that fairness won out,” she added.
Some in Biden team believe abortion rights will open new paths to victory in 2024
Saturday 12 August 2023 21:00 , Gustaf Kilander
While many working on getting President Joe Biden reelected in 2024 think the road to victory looks similar to 2020, some see fresh pathways to remaining in the White House for another four years.
Behind that optimism is the steadfast focus of many voters on abortion rights following the fall of Roe v Wade last year.
The main path to a win is seen as going through the so-called blue wall – the Rust Belt states such as Pennsylvania and Michigan – as well as once again attempting to win states that have recently become more winnable for Democrats such as Georgia and Arizona.
But aides to Mr Biden are now working on winning back territory not won by Democrats in a decade or more.
A top comeback opportunity in North Carolina, a state not won by Democrats on the presidential level since President Barack Obama won it in 2008.
A 12-week ban on abortion has gone into effect in the state over the objections of Democratic Governor Roy Cooper, who was overruled after vetoing the bill.
An anonymous Biden campaign official told Politico that it would be “crazy” not to go for North Carolina since Mr Biden lost it by a single percentage point in 2020.
VIDEO: AG appoints special counsel for Hunter Biden
Saturday 12 August 2023 19:00 , Gustaf Kilander
Labor leader says fall of Roe is ‘expanding the map'
Saturday 12 August 2023 18:00 , Gustaf Kilander
Randi Weingarten, the president of the American Federation of Teachers, told Politico when Roe v Wade fell, “there was a huge shock of ‘Oh my god, this really happened. They really took away a right’”.
“And as these states have been more and more extremist, you’re seeing more women and families wondering why their government is taking rights away from them. I do think it is expanding the map,” she added.
2024 set to feature ‘the smallest map in the history of American politics'
Saturday 12 August 2023 15:00 , Gustaf Kilander
Mr Obama’s 2012 campaign manager Jim Messina told Politico that political divisions in the US will create “the smallest map in the history of American politics” in 2024.
That’s because the candidates “are so well-known and the increased political tribalism”.
VIDEO: Trump supporters heckle Mike Pence
Saturday 12 August 2023 14:00 , Gustaf Kilander
Biden needs to get stronger with his base, Trump with independents, GOP strategist says
Saturday 12 August 2023 12:00 , Gustaf Kilander
The closest of all the swing states is set to be Wisconsin, some close to the Biden campaign told Politico.
Wisconsin could be the state where Mr Biden reaches 270 electoral votes followed by Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada.
A number of those close to the campaign believe that Georgia is only a winnable state with Mr Trump as the Republican nominee. Others say the state could be won regardless of who the GOP puts forward.
GOP strategist Alex Conant told the outlet: “Does he recover his footing with younger voters, with non-white voters? Can he get those numbers back up? If not, it makes states like North Carolina and Nevada really tough for him.”
“For Trump, can he improve his standing with independents? My sense is that he has not so far. If he can’t, due to reminders of January 6, then you could see Pennsylvania fall off the map, maybe Arizona and Georgia get tougher, too,” he added.
Some in Bidenworld think Pennsylvania will get harder and harder for Democrats to win
Saturday 12 August 2023 09:00 , Gustaf Kilander
Those in the Biden circle feel surest about winning Michigan out of all the Rust Belt states but admit that even the home of Motown will be a fight to win.
Many close to the campaign think Pennsylvania will be harder to win again, despite Mr Biden, who’s from bordering Delaware, having spent more time there than any other swing state.
Mr Trump has displayed strong support among the white working class in the Keystone State. Mr Biden didn’t reach his projected levels with the group in 2020, internal campaign data has shown, according to Politico.
Some close to the president think Pennsylvania is where Ohio was a decade ago and that the state will only become harder for Democrats to win. But others point to wins by Governor Josh Shapiro and Senator John Fetterman last year to mean Democrats have a strong footing in the state.
VIDEO: Trump's federal election interference trial date
Saturday 12 August 2023 07:00 , Gustaf Kilander
Biden fighting dropping enthusiasm in Rust Belt cities ahead of 2024
Saturday 12 August 2023 06:00 , Gustaf Kilander
While those in charge of getting the president reelected aren’t overly concerned about Mr Trump’s comeback chances, they told Politico that it will be a close race.
The advisors argue that Mr Biden’s global leadership, his legislative accomplishments and the US’s economic performance after the pandemic will get him another term.
They also note that Mr Trump’s myriad of scandals, mounting legal woes, and extreme stances by MAGA candidates will push away independents and other swing voters.
But they also admit that Mr Trump’s support in swing states remains strong, especially among the white working class.
Mr Trump’s support from unionized workers has also increased despite Mr Biden’s longtime union connections.
The three Rust Belt states – Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin – all have large cities – Philadelphia, Detroit and Milwaukee – where Mr Biden needs to fight drooping enthusiasm among younger voters and African Americans, specifically among men.
Biden spokesperson Kevin Munoz told Politico that “in the midterms and throughout elections this year, we’ve seen that President Biden’s message is the winning one for 2024. That said, we fully expect this to be a competitive election and will take nothing for granted”.
“We must earn every American’s vote, which is why we’re already investing in our battlegrounds and key voting blocs,” he added.
‘Maybe all of a sudden Ohio is in play'
Saturday 12 August 2023 03:00 , Gustaf Kilander
The Biden campaign is focusing on the three Rust Belt states that the president won back in 2020, five people close to the campaign told Politico.
States in the Sun Belt, such as Nevada, Georgia, and Arizona, are toss-ups, according to the Biden team. They were all narrowly won by Mr Biden in 2020.
The Biden allies also believe that Mr Trump is likely to win the Republican nomination.
“Will it probably just be the same states? Yeah, probably,” one individual close to the campaign told the outlet.
But they added that the “abortion issue is alive and well” and that “You have an abortion referendum in places like Florida and Ohio. Well, that makes you take a good look at things. … Maybe all of a sudden Ohio is in play”.
While the White House has sent Mr Biden and top staff to events in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, polling there still shows a close race with Mr Trump.
Last week, a poll from Emerson College had the two at 44 per cent each in Michigan, with Mr Trump in a narrow lead if third-party candidate Cornell West is on the ballot.
A recent poll by Marquette Law School found a 50-50 tie in Wisconsin between Mr Biden and Mr Trump. Similarly, a poll by Quinnipiac revealed that Mr Trump was narrowly ahead in the state, 47 to 46 per cent, however within the margin of error for the poll.
Biden operatives see Florida and Ohio as longshot possibilities
Saturday 12 August 2023 00:00 , Gustaf Kilander
Mr Biden’s team also tried to maximize the ways the campaign could reach 270 electoral votes in 2020 by putting states like Georgia and Arizona, states that the president ended up winning, on its list of target states.
While the simplest path to victory was taking back the traditionally Democratic Rust Belt states that voted for Mr Trump in 2016, the Biden team went for states thought to be harder to win to protect against uncertainty, senior Biden adviser Becca Siegel told Politico.
Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin were unexpectedly won by Mr Trump in 2016, and they went for Mr Biden in 2020.
But Biden operatives see Florida and Ohio as longshot possibilities, with few agreeing with Ms Weingarten’s belief Ohio could be in play and some say winning in Florida is wishful thinking.
While Mr Obama won both of them in 2008 and 2012, they have since experienced a rightward shift.
‘I never count out Ohio'
Friday 11 August 2023 21:00 , Gustaf Kilander
The Biden campaign and the Democratic National Committee (DNC) have placed ads in North Carolina and in Florida – a state most recently won by a Democrat on the presidential level in 2012. Barack Obama also won it in 2008, taking it back for Democrats after two straight wins in the state for President George W Bush.
An amendment to restore abortion rights in the Sunshine State could be on the ballot in 2024. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, the main rival for the Republican presidential nomination to former President Donald Trump, has recently signed a six-week ban on abortions.
This week in Ohio, now widely considered to have gone from a purple to a red state, voters rejected a proposal intended to limit abortion rights. Some in Mr Biden’s circle now hope that the state could possibly be in play.
Mr Obama won the state twice, as did Mr Bush and Mr Trump.
Randi Weingarten, the president of the American Federation of Teachers and a Biden ally, told Politico: “I never count out Ohio”.
“What you saw [this week] in terms of Ohio is that fairness won out,” she added.
Some in Biden team believe abortion rights will open new paths to victory in 2024
Friday 11 August 2023 18:00 , Gustaf Kilander
While many working on getting President Joe Biden reelected in 2024 think the road to victory looks similar to 2020, some see fresh pathways to remaining in the White House for another four years.
Behind that optimism is the steadfast focus of many voters on abortion rights following the fall of Roe v Wade last year.
The main path to a win is seen as going through the so-called blue wall – the Rust Belt states such as Pennsylvania and Michigan – as well as once again attempting to win states that have recently become more winnable for Democrats such as Georgia and Arizona.
But aides to Mr Biden are now working on winning back territory not won by Democrats in a decade or more.
A top comeback opportunity in North Carolina, a state not won by Democrats on the presidential level since President Barack Obama won it in 2008.
A 12-week ban on abortion has gone into effect in the state over the objections of Democratic Governor Roy Cooper, who was overruled after vetoing the bill.
An anonymous Biden campaign official told Politico that it would be “crazy” not to go for North Carolina since Mr Biden lost it by a single percentage point in 2020.
‘Christie is doing a great job of reaching Republicans who think that Trump did crimes'
Friday 11 August 2023 15:00 , Gustaf Kilander
A national poll by Fairleigh Dickinson University shows Mr Trump still “well in the lead” in the GOP primary.
Professor of Government and Politics at FDU and poll director Dan Cassino told NorthJersey.com that “Trump is still well in the lead. But that doesn’t mean that his legal problems aren’t hurting him”.
Mr Trump received 58 per cent in the poll while Mr DeSantis received 15 per cent and Mr Christie and Mr Pence received five per cent.
Prof Cassino said Mr Trump is “sucking all of the air out of the room”.
He added that “criticisms of Trump have gotten Christie and Pence a lifeline, but so far, it’s not enough”.
Forty-eight per cent of Trump supporters said they would consider backing someone else.
While only 17 per cent of GOP primary voters think the indictments against Mr Trump, within that group, Mr Christie is in the lead with 25 per cent. Mr DeSantis received 19 per cent with his cohort and Mr Pence 16 per cent.
But 10 per cent said that they would support Mr Trump even if they agreed that the charges against him are correct.
“Christie is doing a great job of reaching Republicans who think that Trump did crimes,” Prof Cassino added. “The problem is that there just aren’t enough yet of them to win a Republican primary.”
Majority of Americans have unfavourable view of Donald Trump
Friday 11 August 2023 12:00 , Gustaf Kilander
According to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average, 39.6 per cent of Americans had a favourable view of former President Donald Trump, while 56.1 per cent had an unfavourable view as of 9 August.
Mr Trump is the overwhelming favourite to win the GOP presidential nomination, with 52.4 per cent support with the Republican primary electorate as of 8 August.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is in second place with 15.6 per cent.
Joe Biden’s approval rating reaches 40.5 per cent
Friday 11 August 2023 09:00 , Gustaf Kilander
Joe Biden’s approval rating reached 40.5 per cent on FiveThirtyEight’s polling average as of 9 August.
Meanwhile, 55.1 per cent disapprove of the president.
The last time more Americans approved than disapproved of Mr Biden was in August 2021.
Anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist Robert F Kennedy Jr gets 15.2% in Dem primary polling average
Friday 11 August 2023 06:00 , Gustaf Kilander
President Joe Biden faces no real threats on his path to the Democratic presidential nomination in 2024.
Author Marianne Williamson and anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist Robert F Kennedy Jr have joined the race but are not seen as effective challengers.
Ms Williamson doesn’t have sufficient support to appear in FiveThirtyEight’s average of national primary polls, while Mr Kennedy receives 15.2 per cent.
Mr Biden was at 64.3 per cent as of 8 August.
‘Christie is doing a great job of reaching Republicans who think that Trump did crimes'
Friday 11 August 2023 03:00 , Gustaf Kilander
A national poll by Fairleigh Dickinson University shows Mr Trump still “well in the lead” in the GOP primary.
Professor of Government and Politics at FDU and poll director Dan Cassino told NorthJersey.com that “Trump is still well in the lead. But that doesn’t mean that his legal problems aren’t hurting him”.
Mr Trump received 58 per cent in the poll while Mr DeSantis received 15 per cent and Mr Christie and Mr Pence received five per cent.
Prof Cassino said Mr Trump is “sucking all of the air out of the room”.
He added that “criticisms of Trump have gotten Christie and Pence a lifeline, but so far, it’s not enough”.
Forty-eight per cent of Trump supporters said they would consider backing someone else.
While only 17 per cent of GOP primary voters think the indictments against Mr Trump, within that group, Mr Christie is in the lead with 25 per cent. Mr DeSantis received 19 per cent with his cohort and Mr Pence 16 per cent.
But 10 per cent said that they would support Mr Trump even if they agreed that the charges against him are correct.
“Christie is doing a great job of reaching Republicans who think that Trump did crimes,” Prof Cassino added. “The problem is that there just aren’t enough yet of them to win a Republican primary.”
Majority of Americans have unfavourable view of Donald Trump
Friday 11 August 2023 00:00 , Gustaf Kilander
According to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average, 39.6 per cent of Americans had a favourable view of former President Donald Trump, while 56.1 per cent had an unfavourable view as of 9 August.
Mr Trump is the overwhelming favourite to win the GOP presidential nomination, with 52.4 per cent support with the Republican primary electorate as of 8 August.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is in second place with 15.6 per cent.
Joe Biden’s approval rating reaches 40.5 per cent
Thursday 10 August 2023 21:00 , Gustaf Kilander
Joe Biden’s approval rating reached 40.5 per cent on FiveThirtyEight’s polling average as of 9 August.
Meanwhile, 55.1 per cent disapprove.
The last time more Americans approved than disapproved of Mr Biden was in August 2021.
Anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist Robert F Kennedy Jr gets 15.2% in Dem primary polling average
Thursday 10 August 2023 18:00 , Gustaf Kilander
President Joe Biden faces no real threats on his path to the Democratic presidential nomination in 2024.
Author Marianne Williamson and anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist Robert F Kennedy Jr have joined the race but are not seen as effective challengers.
Ms Williamson doesn’t have sufficient support to appear in FiveThirtyEight’s average of national primary polls, while Mr Kennedy receives 15.2 per cent.
Mr Biden was at 64.3 per cent as of 8 August.
‘I wonder if there is any other political figure in America who could generate this level of loyalty'
Thursday 10 August 2023 15:00 , Gustaf Kilander
An NHJournal/co-efficient poll has revealed that 62 per cent of New Hampshire GOP primary voters would vote to make Mr Trump president even if he’s convicted of a felony, with 57 per cent saying that they would support him even if he’s “serving time in prison” by the time Election Day 2024 rolls around.
Co-efficient CEO Ryan Munce told the NHJournal that “As a pollster, I wonder if there is any other political figure in America who could generate this level of loyalty”.
“It will be difficult for any Republican to peel away these voters,” he added.
57% of New Hampshire GOP voters would back Trump even if he’s in prison
Thursday 10 August 2023 12:00 , Gustaf Kilander
New Hampshire GOP all-in for President Trump 2024, leads 43%-9% for @RonDeSantis @GovChristie @NewHampJournal 62% would vote Trump even if convicted; 57% if in prison on Election Day.@IAMMGraham 'They are sticking with Trump.'https://t.co/WlePIekTKU
— Paul Bedard (@SecretsBedard) August 8, 2023
‘There remain opportunities for primary challengers to go on the offensive'
Thursday 10 August 2023 06:00 , Gustaf Kilander
Only 25 per cent of Republican primary voters in New Hampshire said in an NHJournal/co-efficient poll that they believed Mr Trump committed any crimes in connection to the insurrection on January 6, 2021.
The remaining 75 per cent either say say he’s innocent – 35 per cent – while some said they were unsure if he’s guilty but that he’s only being prosecuted because he’s Donald Trump”.
GOP strategist Jim Merrill told the NHJournal that “To paraphrase Donald Trump, he could stand in the middle of Elm Street and shoot someone and not lose any voters”.
“Impressive loyalty, and yet, he still has under 50 per cent primary support. There remain opportunities for primary challengers to go on the offensive, draw contrasts more forcefully, and get creative,” he added. “But they’re climbing an awfully steep hill to make it happen, and the clock is ticking.”
Christie and DeSantis tied for second in New Hampshire
Thursday 10 August 2023 03:00 , Gustaf Kilander
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and ex-New Jersey Governor Chris Christie are tied in second place behind Donald Trump among New Hampshire Republicans, according to an NHJournal/co-efficient poll.
Mr Trump is in the lead with 43 per cent while the governors both have nine per cent support.
Nikki Haley, the former UN ambassador, is at seven per cent, while Senator Tim Scott and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy both have five per cent.
North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum is at four per cent and former Vice President Mike Pence has three per cent support.
‘I wonder if there is any other political figure in America who could generate this level of loyalty'
Thursday 10 August 2023 00:00 , Gustaf Kilander
An NHJournal/co-efficient poll has revealed that 62 per cent of New Hampshire GOP primary voters would vote to make Mr Trump president even if he’s convicted of a felony, with 57 per cent saying that they would support him even if he’s “serving time in prison” by the time Election Day 2024 rolls around.
Co-efficient CEO Ryan Munce told the NHJournal that “As a pollster, I wonder if there is any other political figure in America who could generate this level of loyalty”.
“It will be difficult for any Republican to peel away these voters,” he added.
57% of New Hampshire GOP voters would back Trump even if he’s in prison
Wednesday 9 August 2023 21:00 , Gustaf Kilander
New Hampshire GOP all-in for President Trump 2024, leads 43%-9% for @RonDeSantis @GovChristie @NewHampJournal 62% would vote Trump even if convicted; 57% if in prison on Election Day.@IAMMGraham 'They are sticking with Trump.'https://t.co/WlePIekTKU
— Paul Bedard (@SecretsBedard) August 8, 2023
Majority of Republicans want Trump to be nominee
Wednesday 9 August 2023 18:12 , Gustaf Kilander
As of Tuesday, Donald Trump was in the lead in the Republican field with 52.4 per cent of the vote, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.
Trump: 52.4%
DeSantis: 15.6%
Ramaswamy: 7.2%
Pence: 5.2%
Haley: 4.1%
Scott: 3.4%
Christie: 2.1%
Hutchinson: 0.9%
Burgum: 0.3%
Hurd: 0.1%
Suarez: 0.1%
Cornell West candidacy narrows Trump-Biden gap in Arizona poll
Wednesday 9 August 2023 15:00 , Gustaf Kilander
When Green Party candidate Cornell West was included in an Arizona poll by Emerson College, it narrowed the gap between Mr Trump and Mr Biden.
Mr West received four per cent, while Mr Biden was backed by 41 per cent and Mr Trump by 42 per cent.
The Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, Spencer Kimball, said in a press release that “in national and statewide polling in recent months, West’s candidacy has taken votes away from Biden in the general election, however in Arizona it appears to tighten the race, rather than just reduce Biden’s support”.
Trump holds massive lead in Arizona primary
Wednesday 9 August 2023 12:00 , Gustaf Kilander
A new Arizona poll from Emerson College shows that Mr Trump leads the Republican field with 58 per cent while Florida Governor Ron DeSantis received 11 per cent.
Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie was backed by six per cent and four per cent supported entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy.
The rest of the candidates in the GOP field received three per cent or less. Nine per cent said they would support another candidate and half a per cent said they were undecided, The Hill noted.
Biden backed by 65 per cent of Arizona Democrats as 21 per cent remain undecided
Wednesday 9 August 2023 09:00 , Gustaf Kilander
A new poll from Emerson College has found that Mr Biden leads the Democratic field with 65 per cent in Arizona, with anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist Robert F Kennedy receiving 10 per cent and two per cent backing author Marianne Williamson.
Neither Mr Kennedy nor Ms Williamson are considered serious challengers to Mr Biden.
Among Arizona Democrats, 21 per cent said they were undecided, The Hill noted.
Trump and Biden running close in Arizona ahead of 2024
Wednesday 9 August 2023 06:00 , Gustaf Kilander
A new poll from Emerson College shows that Mr Trump and Mr Biden are running close in Arizona, one of the states won narrowly by Mr Biden in 2020, helping him reach the White House.
Mr Trump has almost 45 per cent support while Mr Biden has just over 43 per cent. The difference of 1.5 per cent is within the poll’s 2.6 per cent margin of error.
Nine per cent said they would back someone else and four per cent remained undecided, according to The Hill.
Cornell West candidacy narrows Trump-Biden gap in Arizona poll
Wednesday 9 August 2023 03:00 , Gustaf Kilander
When Green Party candidate Cornell West was included in an Arizona poll by Emerson College, it narrowed the gap between Mr Trump and Mr Biden.
Mr West received four per cent, while Mr Biden was backed by 41 per cent and Mr Trump by 42 per cent.
The Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, Spencer Kimball, said in a press release that “in national and statewide polling in recent months, West’s candidacy has taken votes away from Biden in the general election, however in Arizona it appears to tighten the race, rather than just reduce Biden’s support”.
Trump holds massive lead in Arizona primary
Wednesday 9 August 2023 00:00 , Gustaf Kilander
A new Arizona poll from Emerson College shows that Mr Trump leads the Republican field with 58 per cent while Florida Governor Ron DeSantis received 11 per cent.
Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie was backed by six per cent and four per cent supported entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy.
The rest of the candidates in the GOP field received three per cent or less. Nine per cent said they would support another candidate and half a per cent said they were undecided, The Hill noted.
Biden backed by 65 per cent of Arizona Democrats as 21 per cent remain undecided
Tuesday 8 August 2023 21:00 , Gustaf Kilander
A new poll from Emerson College has found that Mr Biden leads the Democratic field with 65 per cent in Arizona, with anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist Robert F Kennedy receiving 10 per cent and two per cent backing author Marianne Williamson.
Neither Mr Kennedy nor Ms Williamson are considered serious challengers to Mr Biden.
Among Arizona Democrats, 21 per cent said they were undecided, The Hill noted.
Trump and Biden running close in Arizona ahead of 2024
Tuesday 8 August 2023 18:00 , Gustaf Kilander
A new poll from Emerson College shows that Mr Trump and Mr Biden are running close in Arizona, one of the states won narrowly by Mr Biden in 2020, helping him reach the White House.
Mr Trump has almost 45 per cent support while Mr Biden has just over 43 per cent. The difference of 1.5 per cent is within the poll’s 2.6 per cent margin of error.
Nine per cent said they would back someone else and four per cent remained undecided, according to The Hill.
DeSantis’s battle with Disney doesn’t appear to be doing him any favours with GOP voters
Tuesday 8 August 2023 15:00 , Gustaf Kilander
Ron DeSantis’s battle with Disney doesn’t appear to be doing him any favours with the Republican electorate, according to a NYT/Siena College poll.
Thirty-eight per cent of GOP voters said they would back a candidate pledging to fight “woke” corporations, while 52 per cent would support “a candidate who says that the government should stay out of deciding what corporations should support”.
The poll found that 30 per cent of Republican voters think that transgender people should be accepted as the gender they identify with, while 58 per cent said those identities should be rejected.
Half of all GOP voters support gay marriage, while 41 per cent oppose it, the poll found.
More than half – 51 per cent – said they would back a candidate who pledged to guarantee individual freedom instead of “traditional values”. Forty per cent said they would back the latter.
Bashing ‘wokeism’ less effective with GOP primary voters than law and order, poll shows
Tuesday 8 August 2023 12:00 , Gustaf Kilander
Slamming “woke” institutions and beliefs may be less effective to persuade Republican primary voters than previously believed, polling shows.
NYT/Siena College polls of national and Iowa GOP voters have revealed that candidates were unlikely to convince voters to support them by mostly focusing on battling “wokeism”.
Republicans are instead more enticed by more libertarian economic policies and strong messaging on law and order, specifically regarding cities and the border.
When Mr Trump was in Iowa in June, Mr Trump said: “I don’t like the term ‘woke’. It’s just a term they use — half the people can’t even define it, they don’t know what it is.”
While the line appeared to be intended as a criticism of Mr DeSantis, the polling indicates that Mr Trump me be on to something.
Choosing between two hypothetical GOP candidates, 24 per cent of national GOP voters supported “a candidate who focuses on defeating radical ‘woke’ ideology in our schools, media and culture” instead of “a candidate who focuses on restoring law and order in our streets and at the border”.
Meanwhile, 65 per cent said they would support the law and order candidate.
In the group of voters aged over 65, a demographic with high voter turnout, only 17 per cent preferred the “anti-woke” option.
Poll: Half of all Americans believe Trump tried to stay in office illegally
Tuesday 8 August 2023 08:00 , Gustaf Kilander
ICYMI: A new @CBSNewsPoll found half the country believes former President Trump tried to remain in office after the 2020 election through “illegal and unconstitutional means.” But 29% say he tried to stay in office through legal means. @SalvantoCBS has more. pic.twitter.com/zQFmCBQ0Z6
— Face The Nation (@FaceTheNation) August 7, 2023
Trump asks supporters heavily leading question about participating in GOP debate
Tuesday 8 August 2023 03:00 , Kelly Rissman
Former president Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign is asking supporters whether they think he should participate in the first Republican primary debate – in a not-so-subtle way.
On his campaign site, it provides a poll: “Should President Trump show up to the GOP debate?” The clickable choices are: “Yes” or “No – let all of the many other candidates attack each other while President Trump unites the rest of our party to focus on the important battle of beating Biden.”
Read more:
Trump asks supporters heavily leading question about participating in GOP debate
DeSantis’s battle with Disney doesn’t appear to be doing him any favours with GOP voters
Tuesday 8 August 2023 00:00 , Gustaf Kilander
Ron DeSantis’s battle with Disney doesn’t appear to be doing him any favours with the Republican electorate, according to a NYT/Siena College poll.
Thirty-eight per cent of GOP voters said they would back a candidate pledging to fight “woke” corporations, while 52 per cent would support “a candidate who says that the government should stay out of deciding what corporations should support”.
The poll found that 30 per cent of Republican voters think that transgender people should be accepted as the gender they identify with, while 58 per cent said those identities should be rejected.
Half of all GOP voters support gay marriage, while 41 per cent oppose it, the poll found.
More than half – 51 per cent – said they would back a candidate who pledged to guarantee individual freedom instead of “traditional values”. Forty per cent said they would back the latter.
Bashing ‘wokeism’ less effective with GOP primary voters than law and order, poll shows
Monday 7 August 2023 21:00 , Gustaf Kilander
Slamming “woke” institutions and beliefs may be less effective to persuade Republican primary voters than previously believed, polling shows.
NYT/Siena College polls of national and Iowa GOP voters have revealed that candidates were unlikely to convince voters to support them by mostly focusing on battling “wokeism”.
Republicans are instead more enticed by more libertarian economic policies and strong messaging on law and order, specifically regarding cities and the border.
When Mr Trump was in Iowa in June, Mr Trump said: “I don’t like the term ‘woke’. It’s just a term they use — half the people can’t even define it, they don’t know what it is.”
While the line appeared to be intended as a criticism of Mr DeSantis, the polling indicates that Mr Trump me be on to something.
Choosing between two hypothetical GOP candidates, 24 per cent of national GOP voters supported “a candidate who focuses on defeating radical ‘woke’ ideology in our schools, media and culture” instead of “a candidate who focuses on restoring law and order in our streets and at the border”.
Meanwhile, 65 per cent said they would support the law and order candidate.
In the group of voters aged over 65, a demographic with high voter turnout, only 17 per cent preferred the “anti-woke” option.
Poll: Half of all Americans believe Trump tried to stay in office illegally
Monday 7 August 2023 18:00 , Gustaf Kilander
ICYMI: A new @CBSNewsPoll found half the country believes former President Trump tried to remain in office after the 2020 election through “illegal and unconstitutional means.” But 29% say he tried to stay in office through legal means. @SalvantoCBS has more. pic.twitter.com/zQFmCBQ0Z6
— Face The Nation (@FaceTheNation) August 7, 2023
97% of Iowa Trump-backers say their support is strong
Monday 7 August 2023 15:00 , Gustaf Kilander
Ninety-seven per cent of Trump-supporting Iowa Republicans taking part in the recent NYT/Siena poll said that they support the former president strongly.
That figure for Mr DeSantis is 76 per cent. For those backing other candidates, 54 per cent said they support them strongly.
Almost half of all Trump supporters in Iowa open to backing other candidates
Monday 7 August 2023 13:00 , Gustaf Kilander
The NYT/Siena poll of Iowa Republicans has revealed that around 47 per cent of those backing Mr Trump are open to supporting other candidates.
Among GOP voters in the state with a college degree, Mr Trump and Mr DeSantis are tied at 26 per cent support each.
But in a head-to-head poll in Iowa between Mr Trump and Mr DeSantis, the former president leads his rival, 55 to 39 per cent.
If the matchup is limited to college-educated voters, Mr DeSantis leads Mr Trump in Iowa 53 to 38 per cent.
Democratic challengers trail Biden by more than 50 points
Monday 7 August 2023 09:00 , Gustaf Kilander
Enthusiasm among primary voters is an important factor for candidates involved in especially close races — or, conversely, can be seen as the reason those races are close to begin with. Mr Biden is thought to be headed for a close reelection fight as voters sour on the idea of re-electing someone who was already the oldest individual to ever take the oath of office of president, even as his likely opponent is battered by escalating legal troubles.
Hillary Clinton’s inability to stoke enthusiasm for her campaign after her defeat of Bernie Sanders in the 2016 Democratic primary was viewed as a significant factor leading to her eventual loss to Mr Trump that year.
But as it stands, Mr Biden will almost certainly be his party’s nominee, concerns about age aside. His two announced challengers for the Democratic nomination, Robert F Kennedy Jr and Marianne Williamson, trailed him by more than 50 points each.
The NYT/Siena poll was conducted between 23-27 July and included a subpopulation of 296 likely Democratic primary voters. Information about the poll’s methodology can be found here.
Democrats would prefer Kamala Harris over Joe Biden as 2024 nominee, poll shows
Monday 7 August 2023 04:00 , John Bowden
Another new poll is out suggesting that Democrats could have a stronger chance at winning in 2024 should President Joe Biden step aside for a younger successor.
The survey, published by The New York Times in partnership with Siena College, was released on Tuesday. It found low numbers of enthusiasm among Democrats for the re-nomination of either Mr Biden or a potential decision by the president against running for reelection in favour of endorsing his vice president, Kamala Harris, to run in his stead.
But the latter option was more popular among members of the president’s party by six percentage points, indicating that Democrats’ primary concern with the Biden brand is the stamina of the candidate himself. There’s a catch, however — the percentage of Democratic primary voters who were unsure about how they would feel about their party’s nominee jumps slightly were Ms Harris to take the reins, and as a result the total percentage of primary voters who were at the very least “satisfied” with their party’s pick was actually lower with Ms Harris at the top of the ticket.
It was a confounding poll result that reveals one fact clearly: Democratic voters are deeply unsure about who they want to be their party’s standard-bearer should the incumbent president be sidelined for any reason. And separately, the poll found concerns about age outweighed any other complaint levied against Mr Biden by primary voters by an almost 2-to-1 margin.
Trump dominates GOP primary as general election looks set to be 2020 rematch
Monday 7 August 2023 01:00 , Gustaf Kilander
The 2024 election looks set to be a rematch between President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump.
Despite his mounting legal problems, Mr Trump is by far the most popular candidate in the Republican field.
A recent Times/Siena found that 54 per cent of likely GOP primary voters prefer Mr Trump as the nominee, compared to 17 per cent for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
All other candidates are in the low single digits.
That same poll, conducted last month, found that Mr Trump and Mr Biden are tied in a hypothetical 2024 rematch at 43 per cent each.
Among registered Republicans, 88 per cent supported Mr Trump, while 83 per cent of registered Democrats backed Mr Biden.
Independents supported Mr Biden, 42 to 37 per cent.
Most voters are not excited about their options – 55 per cent said they see Mr Trump somewhat or very unfavourably, with that number being 54 per cent for Mr Biden.
The poll was conducted between 23 and 27 July and included 1,329 registered voters.
14 per cent of voters decline to support either Trump or Biden
Sunday 6 August 2023 22:00 , Gustaf Kilander
Mr Biden and Mr Trump are tied at 43 per cent according to a NYT/Siena College poll conducted last month, with 14 per cent of respondents declining to back either of them.
Some said they wouldn’t vote, while others said they would vote for a third party candidate and a number didn’t provide an answer at all.
But a number of these voters will likely vote for Mr Biden or Mr Trump in next year’s election. And while they’re far from excited about Mr Biden, they strongly dislike Mr Trump.
Of these voters, 27 per cent have a favourable view of Mr Biden, while only 15 per cent have a favourable view of Mr Trump, according to the poll.
49% of Americans say Trump should suspend campaign in light of Jan 6 charges
Sunday 6 August 2023 19:00 , Gustaf Kilander
"a plurality of Americans (49%) said Trump should suspend his presidential campaign, while 36% said he shouldn't." https://t.co/5pq28Ccr0x
— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) August 4, 2023
DeSantis seen as more moral but less likable, poll shows
Sunday 6 August 2023 16:00 , Gustaf Kilander
Mr DeSantis is seen as both more moral and likeable than Mr Trump among Iowa Republicans.
Among that group, 57 per cent said the word “moral” better described Mr DeSantis than Mr Trump while 52 per cent said the same for “likeable” in the NYT/Siena poll.
Forty per cent said Mr DeSantis would be “able to beat Joe Biden” and 31 per cent he was more of a “strong leader”.
When asked who was more “fun,” only 19 per cent said Mr DeSantis.
Among national GOP voters, 45 per cent said Mr DeSantis was the more “moral” of the top two contenders for the nomination, the same figure as for who was more “likeable”.
The national GOP had significantly less faith in Mr DeSantis’ ability to beat Joe Biden, with only 22 per cent saying the governor had a bigger chance in 2024.
In the national GOP, 16 per cent of voters said Mr DeSantis was more “fun”.
DeSantis more favourable than Trump among Iowa ROP
Sunday 6 August 2023 13:00 , Gustaf Kilander
Despite his lead in Iowa, Mr Trump is in second place in the state when it comes to favourable ratings.
South Carolina Senator Tim Scott comes in third place with 70 per cent of Iowa Republicans having a favourable view of him.
Mr Trump comes in at 72 per cent with Mr DeSantis in the lead with a favourable rating at 77 in the NYT/Siena poll.
Half of white evangelical Iowa Republicans back Trump
Sunday 6 August 2023 09:00 , Gustaf Kilander
Half of white evangelical members of Iowa GOP voters support Mr Trump, six per cent more than Mr Trump’s support in the state as a whole.
Mr Trump’s former Vice President Mike Pence has the same level of support among white evangelicals as he has among Iowa Republicans as a whole – three per cent.
Among white evangelicals, 48 per cent has a favourable view while 49 per cent has an unfavourable view, according to the NYT/Siena poll.
Trump lead in Iowa ten points smaller than nationwide
Sunday 6 August 2023 04:00 , Gustaf Kilander
Mr Trump’s lead in Iowa is ten points smaller in Iowa than among GOP voters nationwide.
Mr DeSantis has 20 per cent support in Iowa to Mr Trump’s 44 per cent, according to a Times/Siena poll.
Nationwide, Mr Trump leads the field with 54 per cent support to Mr DeSantis’s 17 per cent.
In Iowa, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott is in third place with nine per cent, followed by entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy at five per cent, former UN ambassador Nikki Haley at four per cent, and former Vice President Mike Pence at three per cent.
