Christian McCaffrey traded to 49ers: How blockbuster trade impacts San Francisco’s Super Bowl odds

Rare is it in the NFL that a non-quarterback will have a significant impact on the betting market. It's even more rare that a running back will influence oddsmakers. We've been conditioned to think the position is a "plug-and-play" spot in the league and that there's no need to make major investments at the position. There might be only two or three running backs in the sport who make an impact on the betting market: Jonathan Taylor of the Indianapolis Colts, Derrick Henry of the Tennessee Titans and Christian McCaffrey.

Late on Thursday night, the San Francisco 49ers acquired McCaffrey from the Carolina Panthers in exchange for a collection of draft picks. In a league where running backs don't move the needle much anymore, McCaffrey is certainly an exception. Not only is he one of the top running backs in the league, but he's also an elite receiver out of the backfield.

Carolina's offense has been a mess this season. They rank dead last in the NFL in yards-per-game, EPA/play and success rate. Through six games, the Panthers have just 1,560 yards of total offense. McCaffrey was responsible for nearly 43% of those yards when you combine his rushing and receiving work. Last week against the Rams, the Panthers had 203 yards of total offense. McCaffrey had 158 yards from scrimmage. That's 77.8% of Carolina's offensive output.

Now, McCaffrey is headed to San Francisco where he will join forces with Kyle Shanahan, who most consider one of the brightest offensive minds in football. He's especially good at producing an elite run game. Over recent years, we've seen him rely on the likes of Elijah Mitchell (6th round pick), Raheem Mostert, Matt Breida and Jeff Wilson Jr. (all undrafted) and still get very good results. Now, Shanahan has a former top-10 pick and one of the very best at the position in McCaffrey at his disposal.

The idea of McCaffrey in this offense certainly has people drooling. It's no surprise that since the news of the trade broke on Thursday night, the betting market has gone wild.

49ers Super Bowl odds on the move

Entering the week, the San Francisco 49ers were 18-to-1 to win the Super Bowl. Those odds were tied for sixth best and reflective of a team that made the Super Bowl in 2020 and made the NFC Championship game last season. However, after acquiring Christian McCaffrey, those odds quickly went on the move.

Thursday night, the 49ers got as low as 10-to-1 to win the Super Bowl. On Friday morning, they settled at 14-to-1 to win it all. Those odds put them behind just four teams: the Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. San Francisco was +800 to win the NFC and represent the conference in the Super Bowl at the start of the week. After the trade, the 49ers' odds moved down to +650. Those odds are third best in the conference behind only the Eagles and Buccaneers.

Their division odds also moved slightly. The 49ers were +100 to win the NFC West entering the week. After the trade, they became a -120 odds-on favorite to win the division.

Since the McCaffrey trade was announced, 63% of the Super Bowl bets placed at BetMGM have been on the 49ers. Additionally, 94% of the bets to win the NFC are on San Francisco and 83% of the bets to win the NFC West are backing the 49ers.

San Francisco has arguably the best defense in football as they lead the NFL in EPA/play and success rate against. With McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk, the weapons are amongst the best in the league as well. As usual with the 49ers, it will come down to whether Jimmy Garoppolo will be good enough in the playoffs to get them over the hump.

McCaffrey's personal odds also shot up. At the start of the week, McCaffrey was 80-to-1 to win Offensive Player of the Year as he was rotting away in Carolina. Now, McCaffrey is 10-to-1 to win the award. Those odds are currently sixth best behind Justin Jefferson, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Cooper Kupp and Stefon Diggs.

Panthers are the drek of the league

Christian McCaffrey became the second member of the Carolina Panthers' starting offense that was traded this week, joining Robbie Anderson who was shipped to Arizona a few days ago.

Sitting at 1-5, the Panthers have the worst record in football. The Las Vegas Raiders, Detroit Lions and Houston Texans also only have one win, but they've all played one fewer game. The Panthers are currently 750-to-1 to win the Super Bowl, which is tied with Houston and the Chicago Bears for the worst Super Bowl odds in the league. The Panthers are 500-to-1 to win the NFC and 50-to-1 to win the NFC South.

On the bright side for the Panthers, they were able to restock their draft pick cupboard with the trade. As they continue to strip their roster down, there's a very good chance they will compete for the No. 1 overall pick in the upcoming NFL draft.

After trotting out the likes of Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, P.J. Walker, Teddy Bridgewater, Kyle Allen and a shell of Cam Newton in recent seasons, Carolina might finally have the opportunity to draft a franchise quarterback this spring. Unfortunately for that potential new quarterback next season, he won't have the services of one of the best weapons in the league in McCaffrey.