Chiefs-Texans prediction: Why this KC game is a twice-in-four-decades occurrence

The Details

Kickoff: Noon Central on Sunday

Where: NRG Stadium, Houston

TV: CBS (Ch. 5) in Kansas City

Radio: WDAF (106.5 FM) in Kansas City

Line: Chiefs by 14.

Jesse Newell’s prediction

Yes, this is a mismatch. There’s little denying that.

Betting markets would tell you — at this moment — the Chiefs are the second-best NFL team while the Lovie Smith-led Texans are the worst. Because of that, the 14-point spread is extreme for a road squad; according to the database at Odds Shark, it’s only the second time since 1980 the Chiefs have been a 14-point road favorite, joining a Dec. 2, 2018 road game at the Oakland Raiders when KC won, 40-33.

The separating factor between these two teams is on offense. KC, led by QB Patrick Mahomes, ranks No. 1 there, while Houston — by nearly every measure — is last. The Texans showed some signs of life last week in a 27-23 loss at Dallas while implementing a two-QB system, but even that brought bad news, as talented running back Dameon Pierce suffered a high-ankle sprain that will keep him out for multiple weeks.

Houston (1-11-1) has other injuries as well. Receiver Brandin Cooks might be able to return from a calf injury to play some this week, but that’s not guaranteed. Pierce being out, meanwhile, potentially limits the impact of Jeff Driskel, who has been successful with the QB run game but could receive more attention without the team’s most dynamic playmaker next to him.

Defensively, Houston isn’t great but is still playing close to KC’s level on that end. The Texans have strong pass-rushers in Obo Okoronkwo and Jerry Hughes, and the team has been above average with takeaways despite the challenge of playing from behind so often.

Davis Mills is the more significant passing threat when he is on the field rotating with Driskel. He’s far from elite, but he has also performed well above some backup-type quarterbacks KC faced against Tennessee and the Los Angeles Rams in recent weeks.

For the Chiefs to lose — or this one to be close — they will have to help out the Texans quite a bit. Multiple turnovers would be a starting point, and if the game does remain tight, know that Houston has strong special teams by nearly every advanced measure. That facet doesn’t mean much in a blowout, but it can mean something if a kick or return becomes important late.

In the end, though, I don’t see this ending up as a competitive affair.

KC has played well in spurts over the last few weeks, but it hasn’t always sustained that well enough to make for lopsided scores. The Chiefs not covering last week’s 9 1/2-point spread against the Broncos is just the latest example; KC couldn’t have played much better for the first 25 minutes in a 27-0 start, even if that wasn’t as evident to outside observers based on the 34-28 final.

This feels like an opportunity for it to all come together for the Chiefs. Mahomes should have plenty of success throwing it against a shaky defense, while the Chiefs should have a much easier defensive game plan while not worrying about Pierce’s home-run ability.

KC has struggled to blow teams out (and cover the spread) lately, but I see a bounce-back here. Though a 14-point spread on the road is rare and also a bit daunting ... I still like the Chiefs for both the win and relatively easy cover in this spot.

Chiefs 37, Texans 14

Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas City

Last game prediction: Chiefs 24, Broncos 17 (Actual: Chiefs 34-28) ✔️

This year’s record vs. spread: 7-6