Who the Chiefs will target in NFL Draft’s 1st round — and chances of landing them

We’re in April, and the Chiefs’ roster doesn’t really look much different than it did in mid-February in Las Vegas — even after free agency, salary cap casualties and the mechanisms that typically prompt remodeling.

That’s about to change.

In the pay-your-quarterback-a-king’s-ransom era, the Chiefs turn to the NFL Draft this week for their most notable additions of the offseason.

The Chiefs have bottom-five draft capital, the extension of a thread that starts with Thursday night’s opening round, when they hold the last pick.

For now.

What will the Chiefs do in Thursday night’s first round?

A quick prediction:

Who will the Chiefs draft in the first round?

The Chiefs would prefer an offensive tackle here, I believe, leaving the wide receiver to the second round because the receiver market is slightly deeper, but their ability to follow that blueprint will be dependent on how the round unfolds.

So I’ll offer a proposal for each position, with that qualifier that I expect the tackle to take priority:

Jordan Morgan, Arizona, LT

Morgan started 33 games for Arizona over the past three seasons. He planned to come out a year ago, but an ACL injury prompted a return for one more year. There are a few questions about his position at the next level, to be candid, but if there were no questions about a left tackle prospect, he wouldn’t fall to No. 32.

There are just so few chances for a Super Bowl-contending team to find long-term solution at left tackle — it’s incredibly expensive through free agency, and top talent rarely escapes the top-10 of the draft — that the Chiefs will find it hard to pass up an opportunity in a deeper class.

Picking which tackle is more of a prediction of which one might be available. The assumption here is that Joe Alt, Olu Fashanu, JC Latham, Taliese Fuaga and Amarius Mims are gone. Mims could be a trade0up target if he gets in the neighborhood of No. 32. More on that in a minute.

Morgan moves well for a player of his size (6-5, 310 pounds), and it should be telling that Arizona rarely sent help to the left side of the line. They let him work one-on-one in pass protection.

The ESPN draft predictor gives Morgan an 80% chance to be available at No. 32.

Ladd McConkey, Georgia, WR

McConkey battled some injuries during his redshirt junior season, missing five games. Which means the medical reports, to which we’re not privy, would have to pass the test.

But when healthy, there’s an attribute the Chiefs could use, and another they always covet.

McConkey is elite at creating space. The average separation is 3.02 yards, among the best in the class, per Sumer Sports, which actually grades him even better at creating separation after the ball is released. He’s also a playmaker with the ball, averaging 6.3 yards after the catch per reception.

Some will view him as a slot receiver, and he can play there, but pigeonholing him into that role would be short-sighted. He lined up wide more than three-fourths of his college snaps.

The knock on McConkey — the weaknesses column – is his strength and size, but those have never been the Chiefs’ biggest priorities at receiver.

The ESPN model gives McConkey a better than 60% chance to be available at No. 32.

Will the Chiefs considering trading up in the first round?

As long as Brett Veach is the general manager, you’d be foolish to ignore the possibility.

Last year alone, the Chiefs traded up in the second, third and fourth rounds of the draft. Veach tried to swing a first-round trade, too, but couldn’t find a willing partner.

When they identify a player they want, they don’t take chances of getting scooped.

There might be a bit more hesitation this year. The Chiefs would like to escape the first two days with both a receiver and a left tackle prospect, and when you relinquish assets for an early move, you put yourself in tighter quarters later.

The Star’s Jesse Newell asked Veach about the trade possibility during a Zoom news conference last week, and Veach noted the example of trading up to acquire Trent McDuffie two years ago.

That was not a planned move, but rather the result of a player falling into the 20s — they’d ranked him much higher on their board.

“I think if it’s one of those (top 10-12) guys, I think we’ll certainly be aggressive, and hopefully we can find a trading partner,” Veach said. “But I also think there’s some depth in Round 2 there. So I do think there’s opportunities to add players that can come in and push for starting positions in Rounds 2 and 3 as well.”

If the Chiefs do find themselves in a situation similar to McDuffie, and a tackle dropping too far could place them in that spot, there is one thing working on their side: Eight of the 10 teams that pick in front of them reside in the NFC and should theoretically be more willing trade partners.

While the narrative that teams refuse to trade with the Chiefs is overblown — it’s not league-wide — it can apply to the AFC’s top contenders, along with the division opponents. There aren’t many of either lined up immediately in front of the Chiefs. The Bills are at No. 28, and the Ravens at No. 30. That’s it.

Would the Chiefs consider a trade back?

At some point — virtually any point — the Chiefs should embrace the least exciting thing they could do in the first round.

Skip it.

This would be a compelling year for the consideration.

Why? The draft is particularly deep in three premium positions — left tackle, wide receiver and quarterback. And the Chiefs hold the final selection of the first round, and therefore the final opportunity to attach a fifth-year team option to a draft pick. The fifth-year option at tackle is particularly enticing.

It’s tricky, though. The Chiefs need two of those positions, so why not take the player themselves?

Well, history has proven the Chiefs are more player-driven than position-driven over recent years. So if they get stuck in a spot they did a year ago — where their top-of-board players were falling one by one — they ought to listen.

In that hypothetical, what should be really entice the Chiefs is the possibility of a future first-round pick. It’s about the only avenue in which they could avoid selecting at the back end of the draft every year and grab a consensus top-end talent.