Are the Chiefs supposed to win every playoff game? Yes, says this group

No one has been more confident in the Chiefs in the playoffs than oddsmakers.

They’ve made the Chiefs a betting favorite in their last 14 postseason games. The last time they weren’t favored to win was a Divisional Round game against the New England Patriots in the 2015 season, when the Chiefs were a 4 1/2-point underdog.

The early line for the AFC Championship Game against the Cincinnati Bengals fluctuated on Sunday and Monday.

The health of Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who suffered a high ankle sprain in Saturday’s victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars, and the impressive nature of the Bengals’ victory over the Buffalo Bills on Sunday, not to mention Cincinnati’s 3-0 record against the Chiefs over the past two seasons — including last season’s AFC title game — are considerations in setting a line.

The first line was posted before the end of Bengals-Bills game and had the Chiefs as a 3-point favorite. But that quickly changed. Sunday evening, the Bengals had become a 1-point favorite. The latest lines favor the Chiefs by 1.

The Chiefs have been poor against the spread this season. Including the playoff victory, they’re 15-3 straight up but 5-12-1 against the spread.

The Bengals, 14-4, including two playoff victories, are also 14-4 against the spread. They were a 5 1/2 point underdog against the Bills and won 27-10.

How often have the Chiefs covered during their 14-game run as the playoff favorite? They took a betting loss against the Jacksonville Jaguars, failing to cover in a 27-20 victory, dropping their record against the spread to 8-6. The Chiefs are 9-5 straight up.

The Chiefs have created advantages for themselves. The streak as a favorite began in 2016, the beginning of the Chiefs’ run of seven straight AFC West titles. Winning the division assures at least one home playoff game, and the only time the Chiefs have not played a playoff game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium since then are the two Super Bowl appearances.

Chiefs’ 14-game playoff streak as the betting favorite:

2022

Spread, opponent, result, vs. line

Closing spread TBD vs. Bengals, AFC Championship

-9 Jaguars, Divisional Round, W 27-20, lost

2021

-7 Bengals, AFC Championship, L 27-24 OT, lost

-1 1/2 Bills, Divisional Round, W 42-35, OT, won

-12 1/2 Steelers, Wild Card, W 42-21, won

2020

-3 Buccaneers, Super Bowl, L 31-9, lost

-3 Bills, AFC Championship, W 38-20, won

-7 1/2 Browns, Divisional Round, W 22-17, lost

2019

-1 1/2 49ers, Super Bowl, W 31-20, won

-7 1/2 Titans, AFC Championship, W 35-24, won

-10 Texans, Divisional Round, W 51-31, won

2018

-3 Patriots, AFC Championship, L 37-31 OT, lost

-4 Colts, Divisional Round, W 31-13, won

2017

-8 1/2 Titans, Wild Card, L 22-21, lost

2016

-2.5 Steelers, Divisional Round, L 18-16, lost

Odds from pro-football-reference.com