Chiefs-Raiders prediction: What to expect from Kansas City’s offense vs. Las Vegas

The Details

Kickoff: 3:25 p.m. Central on Sunday

Where: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas

TV: CBS (Channel 5 KCTV in Kansas City)

Radio: WDAF (106.5 FM in Kansas City)

Line: Chiefs by 9.

Jesse Newell’s prediction

One of my first rules for predicting games: Never overreact to the previous week’s result.

Yes, the Chiefs’ passing offense was awful in the second half of Monday night’s 21-17 loss to the Eagles. The receivers most noticeably struggled, rekindling season-long concerns about drops and a lack of being on the same page as quarterback Patrick Mahomes.

This is a new week, however. And the Las Vegas Raiders — while better on defense than offense — present an opportunity for the Chiefs to show themselves to be much better than they were Monday night.

Some of those issues above simply won’t happen every game. KC, for example, had lots of drops against Philadelphia, but that remains mostly a fluky thing. Turnovers are also finicky, with the Chiefs losing to the Eagles partly because they had two red-zone ones you wouldn’t expect: an errant pass from Mahomes and a lost fumble from tight end Travis Kelce.

And though the recent formula against KC seems to be double-team Kelce and make the Chiefs prove they can throw a deep ball ... the Raiders might not play this way. According to FTN Fantasy’s charting, Las Vegas’ defense plays the third-highest rate of zone coverage in the NFL; unless the Raiders completely change their spots, they’re likely to play to their strengths while forcing Mahomes to find tight windows as opposed to deep wideouts.

Maybe the Chiefs can lean more into a developing run game, too? The Raiders are 21st in the all-encompassing DVOA metric in run defense, making them more vulnerable there than an Eagles defense that the Chiefs had plenty of success pushing around a few days ago.

It’s all a long way of getting to the point: I think the Chiefs’ offense will be fine again Sunday against Las Vegas. Maybe not superhero-like as it’s been in past seasons, but if nothing else, back to the seventh-place DVOA offensive rating it has accumulated this year.

And maybe that’s burying the lead, because even an average offensive performance should be enough against Las Vegas.

The Raiders, even after a coaching change, have a lousy offense. New starting QB Aidan O’Connell is statistically one of the league’s worst at his position, and he’s also much more prone to mistakes than the recent stretch of QBs this defense has faced.

Even with Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas doesn’t have a complete run game that needs to be feared. And outside of Davante Adams and Jakobi Myers, the Raiders lack reliable targets, both at receiver and tight end.

It’s worth mentioning the setting, too. Chiefs fans took over Allegiant Stadium last season, and it’d be a surprise if the Raiders get the typical 1 1/2-point NFL home-field boost for that reason.

In the end, I think the Chiefs’ offense won’t be perfect, but it should be better. The defense, meanwhile, should feast on an easier matchup, while likely coaxing a few turnovers from an inexperienced player in O’Connell.

I don’t think the nine points are enough here. Give me the Chiefs for the win and cover in a game where I think Kansas City’s biggest Monday problems won’t be repeated.

Chiefs 27, Raiders 10

Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas City

Last game prediction: Eagles 28, Chiefs 24 (Actual: Eagles 21-17) ✔️

2023 record vs. spread: 7-3

Previous two years’ record vs. spread: 19-11