Chiefs-Raiders prediction: 2 factors that make a Kansas City-Las Vegas pick difficult

The Kansas City Chiefs face the Las Vegas Raiders at home on Christmas Day. Here are the details:

Kickoff: Noon Central on Monday

Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

TV: CBS (Channel 5 in Kansas City)

Radio: WDAF (106.5 FM in Kansas City)

Line: Chiefs by 10 1/2.

Game prediction

This is a tricky one to project for a couple of reasons.

For one, Las Vegas is still difficult to figure out offensively. The Chiefs saw the absolute best version of Raiders quarterback Aidan O’Connell in the teams’ previous matchup in November — one where O’Connell threaded the ball into tight spaces without turning it over.

In his two games since then, O’Connell has been up and down. He wasn’t good against Minnesota in a 3-0 home loss, then bounced back with a four-touchdown-no-interception effort in last week’s blowout victory over the Los Angeles Chargers.

But how will the rookie fare during a road game in Kansas City? Especially when the weather won’t be perfect?

And that’s the second factor making this game a wildcard. The Kansas City area is supposed to be cold with some rainy conditions on Christmas, but more importantly for the offenses, it’s projected to be a windy day with gusts between 15-30 mph. Conditions like that are more harmful to the passing game than most of us might appreciate, as throws that are accurate on a typical day tend to flutter into incompletions or even interceptions.

KC’s offense had a good week last time out against New England minus a few mistakes, with quarterback Patrick Mahomes playing his best game in a while. And though it can seem like an oversimplification, trusting him over O’Connell on a weird weather day doesn’t seem completely foolish.

The Chiefs are expected to get running back Isiah Pacheco back, which should help. And though KC’s defense has been vulnerable with its run defense, Las Vegas hasn’t been good in that area this season, ranking 27th in DVOA’s all-encompassing rush offense measure.

Honestly, the 10 1/2-point spread seems about right. In the end, O’Connell’s inconsistency scares me a bit on Vegas’ side, especially in a game setting where the Raiders likely will need him to remain poised in a challenging environment.

Give me KC for the win and slight cover here, as I see the Chiefs pulling away enough in a low-scoring contest.

Chiefs 23, Raiders 10

Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas City

Last game prediction: Chiefs 27, Patriots 10 (Actual: Chiefs 27-17) ✔️

2023 record vs. spread: 9-5

Last two seasons record vs. spread: 21-13